249
FXUS63 KDDC 080939
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
439 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant through the rest of this week, with
  temperatures near May normals. Thunderstorm chances return
  over the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Pleasant temperatures can be expected for the next couple of
days as a positively tilted synoptic scale trough oriented from
the western Great Lakes  across Nebraska and Kansas - into the
Great Basin region shifts very slowly southward forcing the
southern branch subtropical jet into the sun belt. At the
surface, broad Pacific high pressure extends across the
northwest Pacific into the Northern Rockies and High Plains,
keeping a light to breezy at times (mainly afternoons) surface
wind field over western and central Kansas.

The remainder of the week shows plenty of insolation, but also
very close to normal temperatures in the 70s for the afternoons
and low 40s west to upper 40s east overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

For any precipitation chances in the first 7 days of the
forecast, the weekend continues to be the time window of
opportunity, as chances of rain thunderstorms (40 to 50 %) are
in the official forecast, with a ramp up to near likely category
(55 to 60 %) in the west Sunday afternoon. Chances linger
though Monday tapering downward with time thereafter.

Supporting that are numerous successive GFS and ECMWF ensemble
mean 24 hours total QPF showing a wet period of, a couple of
tenths upwards to .0.30 to 0.40 of rain in this late weekend
period into early Monday.

This is associated with deterministic models depiction of the
southern branch of the split flow pattern developing a closed
low over the southern Rockies near the 4 corners region by
Friday and shifting into the central and southern High Plains
and an open wave through the weekend  resulting in a difluent
flow aloft with warm advection/pva and a southerly surface
trajectory conducive to drawing boundary layer moisture into
all of the western Kansas counties. With a pattern like this,
some locations could get more than these lower qpf amounts
offered by the ensemble means, especially in thunderstorms with
higher rain rates, especially if we have regenerative storms two
days in a row.

The week 2 outlook (day 8-14 by Climate Prediction Center) does
lean wet (33-40% chance of wetter than normal conditions), with
about a 40-50 percent chance for above normal temps in the same
period (May 15-21).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 437 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024


No clouds or surface vsby restrictions are anticipated through
these TAF. A weak dry front has moved across the area and will
keep winds northerly area-wide, picking up to around 12-15
knots with gusts to around 20 knots by late morning (15-17z).


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99