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000
FXUS63 KDDC 131901
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
201 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warm day on Sunday with near record high potential for Dodge
  City.

- Severe event on Monday is still on track to be more of an
  evening/overnight event.

- Potential high wind warning criteria winds on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

18Z obs and RAP upper air analysis shows a large 538 dm closed
low centered of the northern California coast with a mainly
zonal subtropical jet in the central and southern plains and a
weak shortwave moving through northwest Kansas. At the surface
1006 mb low is located in southwest Nebraska and a trough
extends through western Kansas into Oklahoma which is leading
to southwest winds and relative humidity values in the 10-20%
range.

Throughout tonight the surface low will slowly move eastward
into southeast Nebraska but with little upper air divergence
with the short wave we shouldn`t see much deepening of the low.
The trough/windshift line should bisect southwest Kansas from
Hays to Liberal by sunrise and winds in the boundary layer
should switch to the north. 850 mb temperatures will stay warm
through the night at 20-22 (C) so lows will only fall into the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

On Sunday as the upper low in the Pacific coast moves ashore the
jet stream ahead of it should ridge in the central plains
leading to mainly sunny skies through the day. Winds in the
morning will start east to northeast and then switch to the
southeast by late in the day. 850 mb temperature trends in the
short term models suggest we shouldn`t see much cooling and by
late in the day with diurnal heating we should see widespread
24-26 (C) temperatures. With relative humidity values falling to
around 10% we should have enough efficient heating to overcome
the light east winds and highs will reach into the upper 80s to
lower 90s. The record for Dodge City is 92 and we could
certainly make a run at tying that record.

Sunday night the approaching storm system will be located just
west of the four corners region and the jet streak will be
entering into southern Colorado. Winds in the boundary layer
will start to turn southeasterly and gulf moisture will stream
into central Oklahoma and Kansas through the night which could
lead to a deck of stratus clouds moving in by morning. The
highest moisture in the east will keep the temperatures up
through the night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Out
west with lesser moisture temperatures will cool into the upper
40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Attention then turns to Monday. A potent synoptic low pressure system
is forecast to traverse across the plains. Despite ongoing analysis,
there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of
this potentially significant weather system. CIPS analogs show the
possibility of two scenarios: high-end severe weather events
and lower-intensity to null events. It is premature to speculate on
the precise details of severe storm potential, given the uncertain
position of the dryline and also capping issues. However, in the
warm sector and east of the dryline, more than sufficient speed and
directional shear in combination with instability is forecast by
some of the models to support the development of supercells. At this
juncture, will adhere to the NBM grids with ongoing monitoring of
both deterministic and ensemble runs for any discernible trends
either for an escalated severe threat or the other side of the spectrum
with dryslotting and capping issues potentially reducing the risk.

Beyond Monday, the forecast may trend to cooler and generally drier
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR flight category for all terminals during the TAF time pd.
Winds will stay breezy out of the southwest at 15-25 kts with
gusts to 30 kts through 00Z and then should diminish between
00-03Z. After 03Z and through the rest of the pd winds in
general should be 12 kts or less.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079-084>087.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Tatro