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000
FXUS63 KDDC 122022
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
322 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased fire risk this weekend with critical fire risk
  possible Monday and Tuesday. A +60 percent chance west of
  highway 283 on Monday. A 40-60% chance on Tuesday.

- Near Record highs warmth possible on Sunday. The record high
  for Dodge City Airport for this date is 91 degrees. The
  forecast high currently is 90 with the NBM having a 70% chance
  for highs to be >90.

- A 15 to 30% chance for severe thunderstorms late Monday.

- Strong winds possible across southwest Kansas Monday and
  Tuesday. There is a 50-70% chance for winds to be >45 mph on
  Monday and +70% for >45 mph on Tuesday.

- Lows 32 or below possible late week. North and west of Dodge
  City there is a 40-70% chance for lows below 32 Friday
  morning and a 50-80% chance on Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

At 12z today an upper level ridge extended from the 4 corners
region northward into the Canadian Rockies with a west to
northwest flow occurring over the Western High Plains. At the
surface an area of high pressure was located over eastern Kansas
with a weak trough of low pressure appearing across southeast
Wyoming and northeast Colorado. Short term models are in good
agreement over the next 36 hours with the trough of low pressure
across eastern Colorado deepening as the upper level ridge
moves east towards the Rockies. As this trough of low pressure
deepens the winds across southwest Kansas will be on the
increase as warmer temperatures return. 850mb temperature trends
from the short term models today still showing a 850mb
temperature warmup between 00z Saturday and 00z Sunday of 3 to
5C as a surface boundary moves east into far western Kansas and
dew points behind this boundary falling back to <30 degrees
(+70% chance of this based on the latest SREF). The stronger
winds during the afternoon will be east of this surface boundary
where the higher afternoon humidities will be located. If you
take the stronger winds on Saturday east of this boundary with
afternoon humidity values in the 20 to 25 percent and the weaker
winds late day west of this boundary with afternoon humidity
values falling back to 10 to 15%...what we have is widespread
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Although the
afternoon conditions may not meet red flag warning conditions,
any outdoor burning is not recommended.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

On Sunday the surface boundary/developing dryline will move
further east into southwest Kansas which will result in a larger
area of low humidity values (humidity values ranging from 10 to
15%). Wind speeds however is not expected to be very strong
given that as a weak upper level trough crosses the Central
Plains early Saturday night there will be a weak cold front
briefly dropping south into Kansas by Sunday. Not only will this
upper wave bring a weak cold front into Kansas on Sunday but it
may also produce a few sprinkles or isolated light rain showers
along the I70 corridor Saturday evening. Based on all this only
widespread elevated fire weather conditions are currently
expected on Sunday.

Also on Sunday it appears that temperatures may not warm as
much as previously thought north of Dodge City, however the
potential still exists that a few lower 90s will be possible
which will be near the record highs for this date. One location
with a chance to tie or break the record high for Sunday 4/14 is
Dodge City. The record high for Dodge City Airport for this
date is 91 degrees. The forecast high currently is 90 with the
NBM having a 70% chance for highs to be >90.

As the warm and dry conditions occur across southwest Kansas
over the weekend our next upper level storm system will be
exiting the eastern Pacific and moving across the Western United
States. Today 70-80% of the ensemble clusters now are trending
towards a slower solution of the upper low. In addition these
ensembles also have a 40-80% chance for dewpoints of >55 degrees
returning to southwest Kansas east of the dryline which will be
located somewhere between highway 183 and highway 83 at 7pm
Monday. The best chances for >55 dew points (80%) will be
located across south central Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
Similar chances exist for the chance for surface cape >500j/kg
and 0-500mb shear >40 knots. With such a dynamic system moving
out into the plains late Monday and the surface low deepening
over northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas ahead of this system
then the winds may end up being more backed at the surface
by/after 7pm Monday then what the ensembles have. This would not
only support the further west solution but it may also increase
the low level shear/severe risk. This is close to what ECMWF
EFI and Shift of Tails has highlighted along with the CSU-MLP
day 4 severe probability. Following this solution it looks like
the best opportunity will be along and east of highway 183 BUT
there will be a window of opportunity Monday evening as far west
of Meade, Dodge City or even Ness City. Should storms develop
across southwest Kansas late Monday then they will be capable of
producing large hail, strong damaging winds and possibly even a
few tornadoes. This is something everyone in southwest Kansas
should monitor closely. SPC still looks to have the right idea
with keeping a 15% chance going for most of southwest Kansas and
then focusing the higher 30% chance across south central Kansas
and Northern Oklahoma.

As this upper level low lifts northeast on Tuesday the strong
winds will continue across southwest Kansas. First from the west
and then northwest. This will result in another day of critical
to near critical fire weather conditions along with some
blowing dust.

From Tuesday night through the end of the work week the focus
will then shift towards the Pacific Northwest as our next upper
level trough approaches the Central Plains and an upper ridge
building just off the west coast of Canada. As this upper wave
crosses the plains late week it will not only bring a slight
chance for precipitation to southwest Kansas but it will also
allow for some colder air to return. This colder air returning
Friday into early this weekend will result in a chance for lows
to be below 32 degrees for several days in some areas from
Friday morning through the weekend. North and west of Dodge City
there is a 40-70% chance for lows below 32 Friday morning and a
50-80% chance on Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A trough of low pressure at the surface will deepen across
eastern Colorado over the next 24 hours. In addition a low level
jet will also develop overnight with winds ranging from 40 to 45
knots around the 2000ft AGL. The gusty south southeasterly
winds at 10 to 15 knots today will decrease some after 00z
Saturday but continue overnight. On Saturday morning the
stronger winds in the boundary layer will begin to mix down to
the surface between 12z and 15z Saturday. VFR conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert