Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 150710
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
210 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS
DIPPING FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, THEN
TURNING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS
THE SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. EVEN WITH A
MODEST +70KT JET CORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY, NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH MUCAPE A LITTLE ABOVE
500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CLIMB MUCH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED MUCH ABOVE 70F,
IF AT ALL. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO POSSIBLY THE
LOWER TO MID 80S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S(F) TONIGHT WITH A FEW UPPER
40S(F) POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THE LOWER 60S(F) CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GET
PUSHED EAST AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ON MONDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY`S
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MOIST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG AND
POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA GIVEN THAT LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. TUESDAY
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WARMING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THAT AREA AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR FOR THIS BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO COME OUT LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING SOMETHING OF AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK
WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WAVE MOVES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE DRAGGING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR ON THIS AND LIKELY WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL TURN NORTHERLY 15 TO 25KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  55  80  63 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  68  54  81  62 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  69  55  83  62 /  20  10  10   0
LBL  75  57  81  63 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  68  50  74  61 /  20  10  10  20
P28  83  57  80  64 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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