Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 202010
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
210 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017
...Update Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017
Vigorous shortwave moving across SW KS this afternoon. Have
expanded pop grids for rain showers, and included thunder, given
CAMs and modest instability. Coverage will favor areas along and
north of U.S. Highway 50.
Cloud ceilings are expected to lift this evening, as subsidence
arrives behind the departing shortwave. With the sky clearing
briefly for several hours through Saturday morning, models hint at
the potential for patchy radiational fog. Included patchy areas of
fog in the grids, but confidence is not as high as previous
nights. Dry air advection will allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 20s at many locales by sunrise Saturday.
Saturday...Only a small break of partial clearing in the morning,
before the next shortwave quickly approaches during the afternoon.
Clouds will be increasing and lowering during the afternoon.
Despite this, atmosphere remains mild, with afternoon temperatures
in the lower to mid 50s. Winds will back to SE/E and increase
some after noon, in response to strong cyclogenesis in the
northern Texas panhandle by 6 pm. Most of Saturday will be dry,
but consensus of model guidance begins to spread light rain into
the SW zones during the afternoon. As such, increased pop grids to
the chance category for light rain, from Elkhart to Hugoton to
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017
Strong cyclone will pass just south of SW KS Saturday night, close
enough to spread its deformation precipitation into the southern
counties, mainly along and south of U.S. Highway 50. Increased
pop grids into the likely category for these zones, with an
emphasis on Saturday evening. 12z ECMWF generates about .10-.20
inch of QPF across the southern CWA Saturday night, and this was
used as a guide for the grids. The vast majority of this
precipitation will take the form of rain, with perhaps a mix of
some wet snowflakes near the end. Impacts are expected to be
minimal, and with the very progressive nature of this cyclone,
precipitation will be wrapping up quickly by sunrise Sunday.
Sunday...Sunny and dry, with breezy NW winds. NW winds will
average 15-30 mph with higher gusts behind the departing cyclone,
but with no cold air advection, temperatures will change little
with lower 50s common Sunday afternoon. Very few clouds by Sunday
afternoon as dry subsident NW flow takes over, and ridging builds
in from the west.
Monday...The warmest day of the forecast. An expansive trough digs
across western North America, with strong leeside troughing and
cyclogenesis, and strong downslope Monday afternoon. Forecasting
upper 50s and lower 60s, but this is likely not warm enough. In
particular, ECMWF bias-corrected guidance supports lower 70s SW
of Dodge City, where 850 mb temps warm to +16C, and downslope
components are enhanced south of the eastern Colorado surface low.
Tuesday...The jury is still out with regards to the intense storm
system expected on the plains early next week. Have noticed the
12z ECMWF has offered a slower and further south solution, driving
a strong cold front through Kansas Tuesday morning, with
wraparound snow impacting the northern zones on Tuesday. GFS
solutions are much weaker and much further north, keeping SW KS dry.
Blended solutions are dry and were maintained pending better model
Regardless of this cyclone`s track, much colder weather is coming
the middle of next week. Grids are likely too warm, and are above
raw GFS/ECMWF guidance. That said, this does not appear to be a
direct shot of arctic air, more like just typical January cold.
Forecast is dry Wednesday onward.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017
Complicated TAF package. Degraded flight categories will continue
for the next several hours, with MVFR stratus at GCK/DDC and fog
slowly dissipating at HYS. A strong shortwave will bring scattered
light rain showers, and isolated -TSRA, through this afternoon.
Coverage of this activity will be limited, so only included VCSH
for now. -SHRA will remain in the vicinity of HYS into the
evening. Ceilings are expected to gradually improve this evening
as the shortwave departs. Models are hinting at patchy fog
developing again around 09z Sat as the sky clears, but confidence
is low, so only included modest vis reductions in BR and VCFG for
now. Winds will not be a factor during this TAF cycle, averaging
near or less than 10 kts.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 54 32 52 / 10 10 60 0
GCK 26 51 29 51 / 10 10 30 0
EHA 27 51 28 50 / 0 30 50 0
LBL 27 53 30 53 / 0 30 70 0
HYS 31 52 32 50 / 20 0 0 0
P28 34 58 37 55 / 0 10 60 0