Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 222312
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
612 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Latest radar loops show areas of light rain showers extending from
central into far southwest Kansas associated with a vort max
currently moving east southeast over the Oklahoma panhandle early
this afternoon. This area of precip was showing trends of gradually
dissipating this afternoon. Think that we should a a few hours of
precipitation free weather by early evening before another
shortwave trough associated cold front moves through southwest
Kansas later this evening. Additional scattered to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and
immediately behind this front. Short term models show that
instability and deep layer shear will be fairly minimal overnight.
Agree with the latest SPC outlook that has removed the marginal
risk for severe weather tonight. Precipitation chances will be
diminishing to zero by sunrise Tuesday as the upper wave and front
clear the region. Another weak, fast moving shortwave trough dives
south through the central High Plains on Tuesday. Model soundings
show some very limited instability on the order of 200-300 j/kg
which will mainly occur with diurnal heating. Will keep a slight
chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly over central
Kansas Tuesday afternoon and have precipitation chances ending
before sunset. Cool temperatures for the latter part of May will
continue through Tuesday with highs expected to remain in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

The early part of the extended period will be dry with a warming
trend. An upper level ridge extending from Hudson`s Bay into the
northern Rockies Tuesday evening will build southward into the
central High Plains late Wednesday into early Thursday. At the
same time, another closed low is progged to move from the Gulf of
Alaska into south central Canada. A trough extending to the
southwest of the low will move into the northern Rockies and
result in increasingly zonal flow over the central High Plains in
the wake of the upper ridge. The resultant lowering of surface
pressure in the lee of the Rockies and increasing southerly flow
will pull higher dewpoints back into the central High Plains on
Thursday. A shortwave trough moving out over South Dakota and Nebraska
will push a cold front south into the central High Plains Thursday
afternoon with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening with the front. Precipitation chances
along with near to below normal temperatures will continue into
the holiday weekend as the northern Rockies trough gradually shifts
toward the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Tuesday
afternoon. North to northwest winds 10 to 20kt will develop across
western Kansas later tonight as a cold front pushes southeast through
the region. Wind will then increase 15 to 25kt mid to late Tuesday
morning as surface high pressure moves from the Northern Rockies
down into the high plains of eastern Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  65  42  71 /  20  10   0   0
GCK  45  64  41  73 /  30  10   0   0
EHA  47  65  42  77 /  30  10   0   0
LBL  47  65  43  76 /  30  10   0   0
HYS  47  64  42  68 /  50  20  10   0
P28  51  67  45  71 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson


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