Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 141742
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1242 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2014
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Sections...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
A vigorous upper level vorticity maximum was moving across
Wisconsin late this morning, and an upper level trough extended
southwest into central Kansas. A closed upper level cyclone was
spinning near the southwest Arizona/Mexico border, and a strong
upper level trough was moving into Washington and Oregon. Strong
warm advection through a deep layer of the atmosphere was in
progress in the northeastern United States, and 12 hour H5 height
changes near 200 meters were evident near the east coast. A strong
subtropical jet with peak speeds around 110kts extended from Baja
California across Texas into southern Arkansas.
A cold front extended from Wisconsin across southeast Kansas into
eastern New Mexico at 15Z, and low level north winds near 15 knots
were occurring north of the front in western Kansas. Low level
moisture was beginning to flow from the Gulf into Texas with
dewpoints near 50 southeast of a line from Junction to Dallas Texas.
An extensive area of stratocumulus was evident in central and
southeast Texas with the deeper moisture. H8 dewpoints were as high
as +9C in Brownsville at 12Z.
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
The upper level shortwave that helped push a surface trough through
the area this morning will move into the Great Lakes region today.
Meanwhile, a weakening upper level low will continue to slowly move
eastward through the Desert Southwest today and into New Mexico
tonight. A second shortwave moves into western Canada and Pacific
northwest today then into the Intermountain West tonight. Mid level
clouds will be observed across western Kansas today before
decreasing in coverage this evening into tonight. Towards the
surface, breezy northeasterly winds will be felt this morning behind
the aforementioned trough then become light and variable this
evening as the center of the dome of high pressure moves across
western Kansas. Winds will then be from the south to southwest at 5
to 10 mph after midnight. Highs today are forecasted to reach into
the lower to mid 60s with lows tonight in the mid to upper 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
The start of the long term period will see a shortwave trough moving
east into Texas while another wave drops out of the northern Rockies.
An associated cold front will push south across western Kansas
during the day. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms could
develop along the front as it pushes through far southwest Kansas
during the afternoon hours. The best chances for measurable
precipitation may be just south of the border over the Oklahoma and
Texas panhandles where better instability is progged to be. Will
keep a mention for isolated thunder along and north of the Oklahoma
border during the afternoon hours. Behind the front, northerly winds
and cold air advection increase into Saturday evening. Temperatures
in the lower levels could get cold enough for snow later Saturday
night but model soundings are not overly moist by then and
precipitation may be winding down before it is cold enough for snow.
Upper level ridging will occur over the central High Plains on
Sunday into Monday. Warm air advection ahead of the wave should push
temperatures back up into the lower 70s on Monday. The models are
having a little more trouble resolving the details with Tuesdays
shortwave. The 00z GFS now has this system closing off as it moves
out into the central High Plains. Only a few of the GFS ensemble
members line up with the stronger operational solution. The Euro and
Canadian models all show a more open wave. Will show slight chance
to chance pops across central and southwest Kansas during the day.
Will also increase winds across the area Tuesday afternoon and night.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014
VFR conditions will continue through Saturday. High pressure will
build into western Kansas this afternoon, and north winds will
diminish to less than 10 knots by 21Z. Pressures will fall in the
lee of the Rockies with the approach of an upper level trough late
today, and low level winds will become south around 10kts after 00Z.
Mid and high level moisture will increase Saturday as an upper level
trough digs into Colorado, and broken ceilings aoa 120 will develop
after 12Z. Scattered light showers and virga can be expected after
18Z, and an isolated weak thunderstorm is possible Saturday
afternoon. A cold front will move through all terminal sites between
18Z and 21Z.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 36 63 34 / 0 0 20 20
GCK 62 35 62 30 / 0 0 20 20
EHA 60 37 62 32 / 0 0 20 40
LBL 62 36 63 34 / 0 0 20 40
HYS 62 36 65 30 / 0 0 10 20
P28 66 38 66 37 / 0 0 30 30