Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 051709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KT AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KT WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-22KT
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD KGCK BY 15-17Z,
THEN KDDC BY 18-20Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  20  20  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  20  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  20  30  60  30
P28  98  74  89  66 /  10  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE



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