Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 032305
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
505 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Widespread stratus, drizzle, fog, with scattered light showers of
rain/snow across the eastern CWA this afternoon. A classic gray
day. Temperatures will sit in the 30s through the afternoon with
no sun. Light and variable winds are expected to become upslope
and light SEly this evening, which may encourage a few hours of
fog formation and restricted visibility. Also after 6 pm,
GFS/NAM/HRRR depict a final slug of warm air advection forcing
spreading across the SE 1/2 of the CWA, offering a final round of
light to moderate rain. Raised pops into likely category for these
areas this evening, with QPF of 0.10-0.15 forecasted by some
models. Confident this will fall as rain, as warm air advection at
850 mb continues. Sharp trough axis sweeps to the CO/KS border
around midnight, and clears the SE zones around 6 am Sunday. The
sky will clear rapidly as this occurs, as the associated Pacific
cool front sweeps out the moisture with a modest NW breeze. Lows
Sunday morning ranging from the upper teens far NW, to the mid 20s
at Dodge City, to the mid 30s near Kiowa.

Sunday...What a difference a day makes. The pick day of the
weekend, with full sun, light winds and seasonable temperatures.
A modest NW breeze at 10-20 mph Sunday morning will diminish to
light SWly less than 10 mph, as weak high pressure translates to
near Medicine Lodge by 6 pm.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 135 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

...Arctic cold will be visiting SW Kansas Tuesday night through
Thursday...

Monday...The mildest day of the forecast, as atmosphere responds
to lee side troughing and pre-frontal warming. Afternoon
temperatures warm well into the 50s, and probably some lower 60s
SW of Dodge City.

Initial cold front will blast through SW KS Monday night with
strong north winds and strong cold advection. No precipitation is
expected with this first surge of cold air.

Tuesday...Much colder, but still dry. As the truly arctic air
spills into the northern plains, the progressive shortwave of
interest will be racing through the Great Basin. Afternoon
temperatures reduced to the 30s with increasing clouds Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Said approaching shortwave races
through SW KS, producing a period of light snow. With each
successive model run, am becoming less impressed with heavy snow
potential from this system. Models keep this shortwave far too
progressive to allow for any appreciable moisture return into
western Kansas. That said, dynamic lift will be strong Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning, and whatever moisture is available
will easily be shaken out as light snow. High confidence that all
precipitation will take the form of snow, as arctic air arrives on
strong north winds. Per coordination with some WFOs, increased
wind/wind gust grids behind the arctic front. Also have high
confidence that light snow will occur, so the likely pops from the
blended model output appear warranted. However, progressive nature
of the system and the limited moisture availability will keep snow
amounts modest (1-3"), with the higher amounts favoring the
northern counties. The invading arctic air will make this a fluffy
snow, so fully expect some blowing snow concerns Tuesday night and
for the morning commute on Wednesday. But as of now, the potential
for a significant heavy snow across SW KS is decreasing.

Much more impactful than the snow, will be the arctic cold
Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon temperatures on Wednesday will
remain in the mid 20s, with wind chill factors in the single
digits. 12z GFS builds a strong 1043mb surface high directly
southward over SW KS on Thursday morning, with a clear sky and a
bit of fresh fluffy snow on the ground. Single digits are expected
around sunrise Thursday morning, with some of the coldest
Arkansas valley locations flirting with zero. These are air
temperatures; the winds will be calm.

Thursday...Sunny, dry and cold. Most locations will remain below
freezing all day.

Friday and Saturday...Dry with moderating temperatures. Back to
the 30s Friday, and 40s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 504 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Models late today are in good agreement with IFR and LIFR
ceilings can be expected through at least the first half of the
overnight hours. There will even be a chance for some light
precipitation early tonight ahead of an upper level trough that
will be crossing western Kansas between 03z and 09z Sunday. As
this upper level trough passes a surface boundary will also cross
western Kansas overnight. Behind this boundary a west to northwest
wind at 10 knots or less will develop and drier air will begin to
return late tonight in the lower levels. Subsidence behind the
upper level trough along with this drier in in the lower levels
behind the surface boundary will result in clearing conditions
from northwest to southeast. Prior to this clearing trend and near
the boundary where winds will become light and variable areas of
fog will be possible for several hours which will reduce
visibility down to around one mile at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  49  28  53 /  50   0   0   0
GCK  24  49  27  53 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  25  50  28  56 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  26  50  26  53 /  50   0   0  10
HYS  25  48  28  51 /  30   0   0   0
P28  33  53  30  55 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert


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