Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 130816 AAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014
...Updated for Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014
Short range models indicate the upper level shortwave in the
Northern Plains pushing eastward into the Great Lakes Region
tonight. As the shortwave moves across the region, an attendant
frontal boundary will shift slowly southward out of Nebraska into
northwest and north central Kansas this evening. Ample low level
moisture will be present with surface dewpoints well into the lower
to mid 60s(F) across central and southwest Kansas. Even with a weak
flow aloft in place across the high plains of western Kansas, enough
instability and forcing will exist to support thunderstorm
development in the vicinity of the boundary across west central,
central, and portions of southwest Kansas tonight. Although the
flow aloft will remain fairly weak as mentioned above, CAPE values
in excess of 1000 J/Kg and steep lapse rates suggest the
possibility for stronger storms with gusty winds the primary
threat. Widespread severe weather is not expected.
Little change is expected to the air mass in place across the high
plains of western Kansas tonight. As a result, look for lows back
down into the 60s(F) across west central Kansas to the lower 70s(F)
in south central Kansas. Slightly cooler temperatures are likely
Sunday as a weak frontal boundary pushes southward into Oklahoma.
Expect highs only up into the 80s(F) across central Kansas with
lower to mid 90s(F) still possible closer to the Oklahoma border.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
The well advertised cold upper trough will continue to swing
southward from the Great Lakes and into the Central Plains into
Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms will continue into Monday, with
mainly rain showers and isolated thunderstorms into Tuesday. Upper
level shortwave energy on the west side of the trough, will move
across the Central Plains on Wednesday, and will bring the best
chances for rainfall across western Kansas. Rain chances begin to
wain Thursday, with a warming trend, as the wave moves east. Another
chance for thunderstorms begins again by next Weekend with a
northern branch upper level trough.
For Monday, the best chances for thunderstorms are across far
southwestern Kansas, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. For
Tuesday, rain showers with an isolated thunderstorm increase, with
lots of clouds and highs only in the mid 70s. Wednesday looks to be
coolest with cloudy skies and rain showers becoming likely, with
highs only in the mid to upper 60s. A warming trend then begins
again Thursday into the Weekend, with highs warming from the 70s
back to around 90. Overnight lows through this extended period will
be mainly in the 50s, then warming back to the 60s by the Weekend.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014
A cold front will continue pushing southward into Oklahoma through
the TAF period. Winds will be from the northeast at 10 kts, then
becoming more easterly by 21-00z. An isolated thunderstorm cannot
be ruled out at the TAF sites through 12z this morning. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 88 67 88 58 / 20 10 20 30
GCK 88 67 87 58 / 20 20 30 30
EHA 87 67 87 60 / 30 20 40 50
LBL 88 67 88 61 / 20 20 40 50
HYS 88 67 86 59 / 10 10 10 20
P28 90 68 91 60 / 20 10 20 30