Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 131715
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1115 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 821 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

WV imagery indicates an upper level shortwave trough dropping
southeast across the Upper Midwest while a northwest flow aloft
prevails across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a weaker upper
level shortwave is moving southeast across the Pacific Northwest.
Near the surface, a cold front is pushing southward into northwest
and north central Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Satellite imagery shows another shortwave trough moving southeast through
the Dakotas early this morning. This wave is progged to move into the
Ohio Valley by this evening. Surface winds across western Kansas were
gradually increasing and veering to a more westerly direction early
this morning. By sunrise, a cold front should be making its way south
across western Kansas. Winds will increase behind the front with gusts
to 35 mph possible through late morning and early afternoon and then
slowly diminishing through the afternoon hours as the surface pressure
gradient relaxes.

The majority of the model and MOS output continues to support high
temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s with the warmest readings
over south central Kansas. Winds fall off rapidly toward sunset.
Another shortwave trough currently topping the western North
American longwave ridge early this morning will be approaching the
western High Plains tonight. Mid and high level cloudiness ahead
of this wave will spread over western Kansas tonight. Temperatures
should fall to around or a near 30 degrees after sunset but
should steady out overnight given the increasing cloudiness.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

The next shortwave trough will move south along the front range of
the Rockies and adjacent High Plains of Colorado Thursday morning.
Model qpf fields try to develop some light precipitation over far
southwest Kansas during the morning hours. Model soundings show
the atmosphere moistening up through a deep layer but both the GFS
and NAM show the best mid level vertical motion associated with
this wave staying west of the KS/CO border. Have backed off on
Superblend pops but will maintain at least a slight chance for light
snow during the morning hours. Another chunk of shortwave energy will
be diving south through the High Plains Thursday afternoon, bringing
a slight chance for light rain to areas of central Kansas mainly along
the I-70 corridor. Max temperatures from the Superblend for Thursday
are now in the mid 40s which looks good given the expected cloudiness.

Western Kansas will see a few mild and quiet days to round out the
week. By Saturday night, another strong shortwave trough will be dropping
out of the northern Rockies toward the central Plains. This system
will help dislodge an upper low over the Gulf of California back across
Texas and the southern Mississippi Valley by Saturday night and Sunday.
This system will likely be too far southeast to provide any moisture
for the forecast area. There will be a slight chance for rain or snow
across central Kansas as the northern Rockies wave moves through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Thursday
morning. North-northwest winds 20 to 30kt will persist through late
this afternoon behind a cold front pushing southward across southwest
and south central Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Localized gusts up
to 35kt are likely across central Kansas where winds will be the
strongest. Winds will subside this evening as the pressure gradient
across western Kansas relaxes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

A cold front moves through western Kansas this morning with
northerly winds increasing behind the front. Based on latest
temperature/dewpoint progs, humidity levels are expected to drop
into the upper teens to around 20 percent today. Thus, a Red Flag
Warning is not anticipated. However, outdoor burning is strongly
discouraged today and this will be highlighted in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook and on social media.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  29  46  21 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  59  29  45  20 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  60  29  43  22 /   0  10  20   0
LBL  61  31  45  20 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  58  29  44  22 /   0   0  20   0
P28  64  32  49  24 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard



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