Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290654
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
154 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE MAIN
FEATURE AT THE SURFACE. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING BUT WITH THE LACK OF
MOISTURE ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO START OUT FROM
THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS PERIODS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTION IN OUR AREA ARE AROUND
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS WELL. SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL
REMAIN INFLUENCED BY THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER MEAN RIDGE AND
GENERALLY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW HEADING THOUGH TUESDAY, WITH
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WITH THE BREAKDOWN
OF THE RIDGING AND MORE CROSS TERRAIN FLOW MIDWEEK, THE MODELS
DEVELOP A WEAK CENTRAL PLAINS SURFACE LOW/CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS
COULD BE A FOCUS AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE MAINTAINED A FLATTENING
OF THE WESTERN MEAN RIDGE AND AN EQUATORWARD SHIFTING OF THE UPPER
WESTERLY JET, WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  66  97  72 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  95  65  98  71 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  93  65  97  72 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  95  66  97  72 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  95  64 100  71 /   0  10  10  10
P28  97  67 100  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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