Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...UPDATED SHORT & AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TONIGHT:

MUCH MORE TRANQUIL SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING COMPARED
TO THE LAST TWO EVENINGS. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE LIMITED IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF HRRR AND ARW GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOWS CONVECTION
MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THERE MIGHT BE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION
TOWARDS 06Z ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AS DESCRIBED BY THE NAM. CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN THIS SOLUTION AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN AND INSTABILITY BECOMES
MEDIOCRE TO NON-EXISTENT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS SHEAR AND
CAPE IS MARGINAL. THERE COULD BE SOME MARGINAL STORMS, BUT THAT IS ABOUT
IT. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER (UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S) AS DRIER
AIR/LOW DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN AS ALREADY MENTIONED ABOVE.

TOMORROW:

A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH POPS AT ZERO
PERCENT. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER UNDER THE 11-16C 850-HPA AIR MASS. EXPECTING
VALUES IN THE 68-71F RANGE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST
BY DUSK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SOME COOLER AIR WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
AROUND 12C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO 18C NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
BASED ON THESE 850MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH THIS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES
FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH CROSSES THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MEAN FLOW WILL OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST ALLOWING FOR A DOWN
SLOPE FLOW TO IMPROVE. THIS WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND
MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST
FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LOCATED WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER.

BY MID WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH WAS LOCATED OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST ON SUNDAY, WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE ROCKIES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE DAY AND THIS WILL RISE
TO OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

CIGS WILL BE VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
CIGS WILL MOST LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE STRATUS. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED TOWARDS
MID MORNING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TERMINAL MOST LIKELY
TO SEE CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS KHYS. AS SUCH, HAVE ADDED CB/VCTS
GROUPS IN THE TAF FOR 00Z-03Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK, SO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL BE N/NE 5-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  53  70  51 /  20  30   0  10
GCK  76  51  69  52 /  20  20   0  10
EHA  76  51  70  55 /  20  20   0  10
LBL  78  52  71  53 /  20  20   0  10
HYS  77  52  69  49 /  40  40   0  10
P28  80  55  71  52 /  20  40   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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