Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250927
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
427 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...Updated Short Term, Long Term and Hydrology Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Quiet weather is likely in southwest Kansas today after the major
severe weather outbreak Tuesday afternoon and evening. An outflow
boundary from the convective cluster in eastern Kansas extended
from south of Medicine Lodge across southwest Kansas into east
central Colorado early this morning, and an area of surface low
pressure was centered near the Colorado/Kansas border south of
GLD. A vigorous upper level trough was evident on satellite
imagery from eastern Montana into eastern Colorado at 08Z. The
surface low should move east into north central Kansas as the
upper level trough progresses into the eastern Dakotas later
today, and low level flow will become southwest as the convective
outflow erodes this morning. Low level moisture will erode during
the day, and a dryline will become established across central
Kansas this afternoon. A minor upper level trough approaching the
Four Corners area will move into northwest Kansas and southern
Nebraska this afternoon, and a few thunderstorms may develop in
the richer low level moisture north of the surface cyclone in
northern Kansas. Other thunderstorms can be expected near the
dryline across central Kansas.

Downslope flow, clearing skies and drier low level air will allow
temperatures this afternoon to rise into the 80s and lower 90s
with the warmest temperatures in the southwest corner of the
state. Temperatures will be modulated downward slightly in areas
that received heavy rainfall Tuesday as a consequence of
evaporation of ponded water. Mostly clear skies and relatively dry
air will allow temperatures tonight to fall back to near seasonal
averages in the 50s and lower 60s.

An upper level cyclone centered near the coast of southern
California this morning will eject northeast as another upper
level trough near the British Columbia coast drops into the
western United States long wave position. This upper level cyclone
should reach eastern Colorado Friday morning. Surface cyclogenesis
will occur in southeast Colorado Thursday as the upper level
cyclone approaches, and low level flow in western Kansas will back
and increase as pressures fall in southeast Colorado. Low level
moisture will surge back into southwest Kansas, but some
uncertainty exists about exactly where the dryline will become
established Thursday afternoon. The current guidance suggests that
the rich low level moisture will spread back at least as far west
as Dodge City. Increasing mid and upper level flow over the rich
moisture east of the dryline will provide an environment favorable
for development of supercell thunderstorms with all of the
attendant severe weather phenomena again Thursday, especially from
Dodge City east. Mesoscale details will become better defined
later, but the potential exists for another outbreak of severe
weather with a few tornadoes Thursday afternoon and evening.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

The upper level cyclone that moves into eastern Colorado Friday
morning will progress slowly across western Kansas into eastern
Nebraska by Saturday morning. The GFS is quicker to eject the
upper level cyclone than the ECMWF and GEM. Given the very blocky
pattern with an upper level cyclone in central Canada, the slower
solution advertised by the ECMWF seems more reasonable. A diffuse
surface cyclone should move slowly into central Kansas Friday
afternoon with a weak Pacific cold front extending into the Texas
Panhandle. Cold air aloft with the upper level cyclone will
provide sufficient instability for thunderstorm development across
much of Kansas Friday. Temperature Friday will be cooler as a
consequence of cloud cover wrapping around the surface cyclone.
Weak ridging behind the upper level trough should keep Saturday
quiet, but another upper level trough rotating around the western
United States mean long wave trough will approach Kansas on Sunday
and support more thunderstorms. Another minor trough should
approach on Monday. Weaker flow should reduce the potential for
significant severe weather, but there may be some threat of severe
weather each day.

Upper level ridging should build over the Rockies the first part
of next week, and a cold front will move across Kansas Tuesday or
Tuesday night as a progressive upper level trough moves across the
Northern Plains and digs toward the Great Lakes. There may be a
few days of meteorologically benign weather next week with north
to northwest anticyclonic flow aloft over the High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

An outflow boundary from the large convective cluster in central
and eastern Kansas extended from west central Kansas into
northwest Oklahoma at 06Z, and widespread ceilings near 025 can be
expected through at least 08Z. As the outflow erodes later
tonight. flow above the boundary layer will become southwest in
response to falling pressures in the northern plains, and the
stratus should erode before sunrise. Southwest low level winds
around 10 kts will prevail during the daylight hours, and dry air
is likely to spread across all of southwest Kansas. A few cumulus
clouds with bases near 060 should form in the afternoon,
especially near HYS. Thunderstorms today should remain east of the
TAF sites.

Low level dry air will persist Wednesday night at TAF sites,
although low level moisture will spread back west quickly on
Thursday. VFR conditions are expected through at least Thursday
afternoon.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Widespread rainfall estimated by radar to be from three to five
inches in northern Pratt and southern Stafford Counties likely has
resulted in considerable ponding of surface water. Law enforcement
has not reported any significant problems with runoff, and the
soil in that area is sandy and should absorb much of the water. An
areal flood warning will be maintained this morning.

Other heavy rainfall occurred from Edwards County into Pawnee
County and in eastern Lane and western Ness Counties. Although
some small streams likely will be running high, major flooding is
unlikely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  57  88  57 /   0  10  40  40
GCK  90  52  88  53 /   0  10  20  30
EHA  90  54  86  51 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  91  54  89  54 /   0  10  20  20
HYS  87  57  85  60 /   0   0  40  40
P28  90  66  88  64 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...Ruthi
HYDROLOGY...Ruthi



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