Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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681
FXUS63 KDDC 081805
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Northwest flow will continue above western Kansas through tomorrow
with a strong jet in place over the same area. Mid to upper levels
look to saturate across central Kansas tonight into tomorrow
leading to increased cloudiness. Otherwise expect only a few high
clouds through tomorrow. Northwest winds continue through tomorrow
as a dome of high pressure continues to sit over the Southern
Plains. Gusty northwest are expected again tomorrow afternoon,
mainly across far western Kansas. A weak frontal boundary may
retrograde into portions of the area tomorrow afternoon but only
slightly decrease wind speeds and temperatures a few degrees. As
for temperatures, lows tonight look to dip into the mid 20s with
highs tomorrow ranging from the lower 40s across northern Kansas
to upper 50s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The hemispheric pattern will remain nearly unchanged for much of the
Long Term period this week going into the following weekend. The
deep tropospheric flow will gain more downslope component by
Wednesday and Thursday, which would favor warmer temperatures,
especially across far southwest Kansas. Meanwhile, a rather
substantial arctic airmass will continue across the Upper Midwest
region and Northern Plains and any little perturbation within the
flow will allow some of this air to come southwest into our region.
There is increasing signal that a decent northwest flow jet streak
will travel from Alberta southeastward to Iowa/Missouri/Kansas by
Friday. In its wake, a substantial arctic high would expand its
reach southwestward impacting southwest Kansas. The take home
message is that the upcoming weekend temperature forecast is very
low confidence. In fact, it could be MUCH colder than what the
current forecast indicates, especially if the latest 00z run of the
ECMWF comes to fruition, which is showing temperatures stuck in the
20s all day across portions of west central Kansas. It still looks
like we will be in a dry pattern, precipitation wise through the
entire Long Term period. There is way too much noise in the medium
range numerical weather prediction to even make any speculation on
precipitation at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into the overnight
period with increasing high level clouds. Winds will generally be
from the north northwest this afternoon shifting to more to the
northeast tonight. Windy conditions are expected this afternoon
across the DDC and HYS terminals with gusts up to 40 knots
possible. Winds decrease below 12 knots this evening into the
overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  52  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  25  53  26  66 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  30  58  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  28  58  29  69 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  24  43  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
P28  27  51  28  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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