Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 282009
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
309 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS, FRONTOGENESIS, AND SPRINKLES WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST BY DAWN
FOLLOWED BY RAPID CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, SOME PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLY, MAINLY AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR. LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZE/FROST ADVISORY. LOWS WILL RUN
FROM THE MID 30S AROUND I-70 TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS MORNING DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAWN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE, A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO MISSOURI WED NIGHT-THU WHICH WILL PUSH A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. WITH ONLY WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT, LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH A
SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO CENT HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ALL SHOW 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES AROUND 3-5 DEG C
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 10
TO 12 DEG C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY VERY
WELL STAY IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOWER 60S POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD BE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING.

BY THIS WEEKEND, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES. THE STRONG WINDS COULD
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
CONTINUING EAST ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WHILE THE SOUTHERN
PORTION LINGERS BACK TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT.
WE COULD SEE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE UPPER WAVE IS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  72  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  34  71  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  35  71  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  36  73  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  33  70  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
P28  37  71  44  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH



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