Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201805
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
105 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Cold front now dropping though south central Kansas which was the
focus for surface based convection earlier. Determining the extent
of leftover mid level stratiform clouds will be on issue early this
morning, as well as any showers across the northern counties
associated with the elevated front. Going through the early morning
we might see a few showers from near Scott City to Wakeeney, if any
at all. A relatively cool day will follow the post frontal pattern,
with models and  MOS varying between the upper 40s and 50s for a max
temperatures range, despite full insolation.  The day will remain
dry with the next chance for precipitation not coming until very
late in the second period at best (early Friday morning).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

By Friday, southwest and central Kansas will still be in the cool
sector of a developing synoptic scale storm pattern. Both the GFS
and ECMWF show our area of KS in the cold conveyor belt region with
potential for severe storms in the southern Plains. The pattern
would suggest an initial round of scattered thunderstorms early in
the event followed by rain with only isolated convection heading
though late in the day Friday. Models are in the neighborhood of an
inch of more precipitation for the event on average.

Saturday night and Sunday morning may be cold enough for frost
development especially in the western counties. The remainder of
the period will bring dry weather with a warming trend. Elevated
fire weather conditions will likely return by early next week.
Models develop the next precipitation chances around day 7
(Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

North winds will diminish through 00z as surface high pressure
moves into western Kansas. Surface Low pressure will develop
over the southern high plains tonight and Friday resulting
in easterly winds increasing toward the end of the period.
An upper level disturbance will approach along with increasing
low to mid level moisture, resulting in rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms after 10z and lowering CIGS to
MVFR then MVFR/IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  47  52  38 /   0  50  80  30
GCK  69  47  50  37 /   0  40  80  30
EHA  70  47  56  38 /   0  40  70  20
LBL  72  48  54  38 /   0  50  80  20
HYS  70  47  54  40 /   0  10  90  50
P28  71  51  55  42 /  10  50  90  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Finch



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