Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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460
FXUS63 KDDC 230946
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
346 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Water vapor loop and RAP analysis confirmed shortwave ridging moving
across western Kansas during the very early morning hours. This will
quickly be replaced by southwest flow aloft, with first indications
by increasing cirriform cloud cover coming across Colorado into far
western Kansas. The increasing southwest momentum will translate to
the boundary layer on the High Plains of southeastern Colorado,
northeastern New Mexico and much of the Texas Panhandle. This will
also extend into far southwest Kansas, and this entire region will
likely see afternoon temperatures top out in the mid 60s. The
official forecast follows ECMWF and ARW-core short term mesoscale
models. There will be limit to the eastward extent of the warming,
and this will likely occur somewhere along the the U83 corridor.
Along and east of this longitude, highs will be in the mid 50s as a
rule. The increased MSLP gradient with the deepening lee trough will
result in stronger south winds, particularly east of U83 -- where 20
to 25 mph winds will be likely from late morning through late
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Not much has changed in the long term thinking. This mid shift`s
version of the SuperBlend via ForecastBuilder has silent POPs across
the entire WFO DDC forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday Night. We will
keep this as-is, even though there may be a very brief shower or two
across far west central Kansas as the 700mb low forms across
northeastern Colorado and mid level cold advection kicks in. Tuesday
temperatures will be a bit tricky, as we should see some fairly warm
air early in the day (by January morning standards), with
temperatures reaching their highs around the lunch hour most
locations -- in upper 40s (west central KS) to the upper 50s (south
central Kansas). We will likely see temperatures falling in the
afternoon, especially farther northwest, perhaps into the 30s by
late afternoon in the Syracuse to Scott City to Wakeeney areas.
Winds should be quite brisk when the cold front pushes through, with
winds likely in the 25 to 30 mph range by the mid to late afternoon
hours. This will be about the extent of the excitement with this
storm system, as all the winter precipitation will be across
Nebraska this go around.

Quiet weather is forecast the remainder of the week with Pacific
high pressure in control. The lack of an arctic airmass behind the
Tuesday storm system will mean daytime highs will be in the 40s
Wednesday and beyond. Western Kansas will stay in a northwest flow
pattern through the end of the week, which will keep the fairly cool
airmass in check, so we will not likely see anything higher than 40s
anywhere across western Kansas until probably Sunday, and that would
most likely be along and south of the Arkansas River.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

VFR flight category will continue through the period with wind
speeds being the only element of interest. Wind speeds will
increase as a lee trough strengthens later on Monday. Expect wind
speeds to peak at around 16 to 20 knots sustained from late
morning through mid afternoon at GCK, DDC, and HYS. Winds will
settle back down to around 9 to 12 knots around sunset. An intense
low level jet of west-southwest winds will develop overnight
tomorrow night leading to some low level wind shear starting right
at the end of this forecast period (not included in this 06Z TAF
cycle)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  37  52  24 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  57  34  49  22 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  64  35  51  24 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  62  35  54  25 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  54  33  46  25 /   0   0  10  10
P28  56  37  59  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid



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