Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 090724
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
124 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2013
...Update to long term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013
Relatively dry conditions will continue across central and southwest
Kansas tonight as the upper level shortwave now exiting the southern
Rockies into the Western High Plains, lifts northeast into the Great
Lakes Region. Meanwhile, short range models indicate the upper level
shortwave across the northern Rockies dropping further south into
the Four Corners Region tonight, then turning east across the
southern Rockies Monday. As the system approaches Monday, favorable
dynamics aloft, including a +130kt jet and increased divergence,
will help set the stage for possible light snow development across
the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma where mid/upper level
moisture is projected to increase. Although the bulk of any snow
fall is expected to remain to our south, the potential exists for
light snow to reach the extreme southern portions of southwest and
south central Kansas with any accumulations generally less than an
Temperatures will remain well below normal tonight as a weak cold
front pushes through western Kansas by this evening reinforcing the
cold air mass locked in across the Western High Plains. Expect lows
back down into the single digits(F) to near 10F tonight as a result.
Similar high temperatures are likely going into Monday as well with
little change to the overall air mass. Look for highs well up into
the teens(F) to the possibly the lower 20s(F) across south central
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013
Southwest Kansas will be situated on the tail end of upper level westerlies
Tuesday. This will favor advection of a low level downslope plume with
850 hPa temperatures as warm as 4C. The ECE shows a high of 46 (!) for
Tuesday for KDDC. This is an outlier compared to the GFS/GEM. The forecast
soundings from the EC don`t show that much mixing even with the aforementioned
ideal southwesterly low level flow. With go with blend and have maximums
in the upper 30sF. No precipitation is expected. A cold front will move
across the region during the overnight period.
Wednesday and beyond:
Cold air advection in expected in the wake of the aforementioned front
with 850 hPa temperatures crashing again well into negative territory.
Maximums will be in the upper 20sF and saw no reason to deviate from
the inherited grids. No precipitation is expected with this dry front.
Otherwise, the rest of the period will feature dry conditions and moderating
temperatures. Will have to watch for precip potential on Friday as a
wave moves across the region. The allblend precipitation chances were
nil/dry for now and saw no reason to deviate.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013
Cold high pressure will rule this TAF forecast. Light and variable
winds will prevail through the 24 hour period, with a southerly
direction returning by late Sunday afternoon. A little light fog
may develop just around sunrise in the KDDC and KHYS sites. A
northwest to westerly flow aloft will bring a few high, and
perhaps a few mid level, clouds passing throughout today. Overall,
VFR conditions will prevail.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 20 3 37 14 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 20 2 37 12 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 18 4 39 14 / 20 0 0 0
LBL 19 4 38 15 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 20 5 37 12 / 0 0 0 0
P28 23 8 39 15 / 20 0 0 0