Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270935 AAC
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
435 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS CONVECTION LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO
LOWER TEMPERATURES BEING ACHIEVED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER APPARENT TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS INITIALLY HEAVY RAINS AND NOW STRATIFORM
RAINFALL OVERSPREADS THE K-96 AND I-70 CORRIDORS. THE LATEST SHORT
TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS WERE FAR MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTION  SOUTH OF THE ARK RIVER WEST OF HIGHWAY 283, HOWEVER THE
RADAR TREND AT THIS TIME IS NOT FAVORING THE SAME SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER
THE OUTFLOW WILL EXPAND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE, THIS MORNING. MCS
ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE DIURNAL HEATING
DEVELOPS CLUSTERS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO THAT MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LITTLE OVERALL ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST .
THE PERIOD IS STILL CHARACTERIZED BY THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH A BROAD UPPER  HIGH EXTENDED  ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  PLAINS AND
A RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXTENDING INTO KANSAS. A
BETTER CONVERGENCE/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION I THE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, BRINGING MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA, WHICH WILL HAVE EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES  FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN. OPPORTUNITIES  BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME MAY
DEPEND  MORE ON NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET PROCESSES WHICH WILL BE HIGHLY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. HOWEVER THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK DOES APPEAR COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS BOTH FROM MODEL
AND MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. BEST CHANCES FOR PREVAILING THUNDERSTORMS STILL THIS
EVENING ARE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS, ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE SURFACE WIND
THREAT HAS BECOME MINIMAL. AS CONVECTION WANES TOWARD 10 Z, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MCS
ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT IN FAR WESTERN KS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  74  99  69 /  30  20  30  50
GCK  96  72  95  67 /  20  10  30  50
EHA  98  70  95  66 /  30  20  30  50
LBL  98  74  98  69 /  20  20  30  50
HYS  97  76  96  68 /  10  20  30  50
P28  97  76 101  72 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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