Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 311709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1109 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AT 12Z SATURDAY A 500MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM EASTERN TEXAS
INTO KANSAS. A 500MB LOW LOCATED OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. FURTHER
NORTH A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN MONTANA WITH A
500MB BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN IDAHO TO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. AT THE 700MB AND 850MB LEVEL A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
CONTINUING TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. 850MB TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING AT 12Z WERE -1C AT AMARILLO AND DODGE CITY AND -2C AT
NORTH PLATTE AND TOPEKA. AN 850MB FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN
MONTANA TO WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AT 12Z
SATURDAY EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN IOWA, ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA,
INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASES ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. THIS IS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINS ABOVE THE BAJA REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AS
WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL KANSAS. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
I-70 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WHERE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY BECOMING BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIPITATION MAY MIX
WITH OR CHANGE ALL OVER TO SNOW AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE
OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

IN THE LONGER TERM THE GREATEST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES,
BOTH SPATIALLY AND THE MAGNITUDE. EARLY SUNDAY THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE EXITING MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE LINGERING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MOST LIKELY LIGHT SNOW) AROUND BARBER COUNTY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, SKIES SHOULD BE GRADUALLY
CLEARING IN PRESENCE OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH EARLIER WILL BE ARCTIC IN NATURE.
HOWEVER, MY AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE AIRMASS. STILL,
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR BUT MAY STILL WARM A LITTLE AROUND
ELKHART.

BY MONDAY ANOTHER FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
OF THE WESTERLIES WILL HELP LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE. WARMING WILL BE MOST PREVALENT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
BUT, HOW FAR EAST THE MIXING OCCURS AND RESULTANT WARMING IS IN
QUESTION. MY EASTERN COUNTIES COULD VERY WELL STAY ENTRENCHED IN
THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY HAVE SOME BUST POTENTIAL.

YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING S/WV TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
WESTERLIES WILL HAVE A SURFACE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER
ARCTIC AIRMASS FRONT THAT SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN BUT MID-WEEK LOOKS MOST LIKELY. IN
ADDITION, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND BAROCLINICITY TO
PROMOTE SOME PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH MOST LIKELY LIGHT (AND IN THE
FORM OF FROZEN).

ANOTHER WARM-UP IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS UPPER HEIGHTS
BUILD A LITTLE AND THE WESTERLIES RETREAT A BIT NORTH.&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DECREASE INTO THE 10 TO
15 KNOT RANGE BY LATE DAY. THE CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE SOME, HOWEVER
BASED ON THE 12Z BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR CEILINGS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 1500FT TO 2000FT AGL LEVEL BY
LATE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
HRRR HAS THE FRONT PASSING HYS AND GCK BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z AND DDC
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. AS THIS FRONT PASSES THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OR SNOW BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25
KNOTS AS LOW CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  26  33  14 /  90  60  10   0
GCK  43  25  35  14 /  30  50   0   0
EHA  44  28  40  19 /  30  40   0   0
LBL  42  29  38  18 /  90  50  10   0
HYS  39  24  27  11 /  90  70  10   0
P28  41  30  35  14 / 100  70  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...BURGERT


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