Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 081728
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1128 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

A large 1040 mb surface high from eastern WY and the NE
panhandles will continue to spread south and east today. Light
north winds will be the result as western Kansas becomes located
more under the influence of the surface high center. Initially,
the lighter winds will probably mitigate the very cold
temperatures from creating a significant excessive cold/wind chill
risk. Still, wind chill readings this morning will dive into the 0
to 10 below zero range across a large portion of the area and
colder in the far northwest counties (Syracuse to Scott City and
Dighton areas). With the high centered over our region today,
temperatures will likely not exceed the freezing point anywhere,
and be mainly in the mid 20s. Winds on Friday will be more
southerly, a little stronger meaning better BL mixing, and as a
result, the highs will likely moderate well into the 30s and even
40s farther southwest near OK/CO.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

A decent surge of boundary layer warm air is shown by the models for
Friday night, with quite an impact on highs forecast for Saturday
afternoon. A broad, mainly zonal flow will be in place across the
country during this time as the stronger temperature gradient gets
displaced farther north into the Northern Plains. The models bring
in the next wave across that region later in the weekend and another
push of cold air into Kansas around Tuesday. Therefore the brief
respite of colder temperatures this weekend will end with probably
cold windy days returning around mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. The current north
winds will shift to become southeasterly between 22 and 6Z due to
a high pressure ridge access passing over Southwestern Kansas.
Winds will become gusty after the ridge axis passage around 12Z
tomorrow through early evening due to low pressure building over
the Rockies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  13  35  20 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  25  13  37  20 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  27  15  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  28  14  41  23 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  24   9  31  17 /   0   0   0   0
P28  29  13  35  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Reynolds


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