Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290454
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1154 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...Update aviation section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Updated to increase thunderstorm coverage across the NE zones
(near Hays) through 7 pm. MCS entering NW Kansas is intensifying,
and expect SPC to issue a severe thunderstorm watch shortly
as these storms head SE. Additional storms will develop in
eastern Colorado, where instability has increased (MLCAPE over
2000 J/kg). Most CAMs and short term models still forecast a
significant complex with damaging winds across SW KS this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Atmosphere recovering and destabilizing quickly this afternoon,
with dewpoints climbing and SE winds reestablishing. Expect
airmass will be primed for another thunderstorm complex by 7 pm.
Ongoing convection across NW Kansas and SW Nebraska muddles the
picture a bit, but with time the picture is getting clearer.
Ongoing storms are expected to be largely inconsequential for
SW KS, with new vigorous storm development expected in NE Colorado
by mid afternoon. High confidence that convection will again
organize upscale into a large/severe MCS and reach the northern
zones around 7 pm. Models are in excellent agreement tracking the
MCS southward across SW KS this evening. Synoptic situation, with
increasing NWly 500 mb flow to near 40 kts this evening, is highly
favorable for a well-maintained MCS through early Friday morning.
Kept thunderstorm coverage in the likely/definite category tonight
and continued a mention of damaging winds through about midnight.
Many fairs with outdoor festivities begin this evening. Keep
abreast of the changing thunderstorm situation this evening,
especially if planning on being outdoors away from shelter.
Damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph are possible this evening.

Friday...Cooler. Post-MCS airmass will preside across SW KS, with
residual convective debris clouds and lingering rain showers.
Between the cloud cover and winds maintaining an easterly
component through the day, temperatures will be noticeably cooler
Friday, with afternoon highs only in the low to mid 80s. Areas of
low stratus clouds may linger much of Friday morning. Expectation
is for atmosphere to be thoroughly worked over from tonight`s MCS,
with available CAPE very limited for further convective
redevelopment Friday afternoon. As such, kept pop grids
conservative, and emphasized rain showers in the grids as opposed
to thunder.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Little time spent on long term, with emphasis on short term severe
threat. Previous forecast thinking of increasingly hot afternoons
and dwindling rain chances remains valid. Afternoon highs return
to normal Saturday, with upper 90s to near 100 by Monday as heights
rise and the atmosphere warms. All zones dry Sunday and Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Upper high sets up near the Ozarks, to the
east of SW KS. Resulting SW flow aloft will try to pull monsoon
moisture in from the Desert SW, warranting a return of limited
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible early this morning across
the TAF sites bringing periods of MVFR to IFR ceilings and
visibilities. VFR conditions are anticipated afterwards and into
the afternoon hours. Winds will generally be from an easterly
direction and less than 12 knots into this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  83  67  91 /  30  20  20  20
GCK  65  83  65  90 /  40  20  20  20
EHA  66  85  67  95 /  30  20  20  20
LBL  67  87  67  95 /  30  20  20  20
HYS  65  82  66  87 /  40  20  30  20
P28  68  84  69  92 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42


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