Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261636
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1136 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN THE SAME, AS NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.  THERE
IS A FRONT WHICH WENT THROUGH TO THE SOUTH LAST NIGHT, STALLING NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THAT FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ADVANCE BACK
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT, AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
FORM IN WESTERN KANSAS. THERE IS ALREADY A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR NEAR JOHNSON CITY AND SYRACUSE. DEW POINTS
ARE RIDING FAIRLY HIGH, IN THE LOWER 60S IN OUR WEST AND THE MID
60S IN OUR EAST. SO, I THINK THERE WILL BE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
THE AFTERNOON GOES ON AND THE FRONT COLLIDES WITH THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE TROUGH. THE LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH, AND THIS COMBINATION WILL
TRIGGER A FEW STORMS. THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT IN
OUR WEST, AND MIGRATE TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF I-70 WHERE
THE FRONT SHOULD BE BY LATER THIS EVENING. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS
ONE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING AND HELP SUPPLY UPPER SUPPORT FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT DOWN BURST WINDS
TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A SECOND MID LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND
ECMWF MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH TO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING, THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, MAINLY FROM HIGHWAY 283
AND EASTWARD. SINCE THERE WILL AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN, THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GOING MAX T`S RANGING FROM NEAR 90F DEGREES IN
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY AREAS WILL RANGE SLIGHTLY UPWARD TO THE
MID 90S IN THE BARBER COUNTY AREA. SURFACE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE SOUTH AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
15G25MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL TREK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS IT APPROACHES AND PASSES
OVERHEAD. MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE SATURATED
THROUGH SATURDAY ALLOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE OBSERVED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS,
NORTHEAST COLORADO, AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE KS/NE LINE.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS,
WESTERN OKLAHOMA, AND WESTERN TEXAS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH
THESE FEATURES IN PLACE, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE STORM EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S WITH 80S EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS THEN REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOWS LOOK
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
60S THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT HAVE LEFT THE MENTION
OF THEM OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69  92  69 /  20  30  60  40
GCK  93  67  90  67 /  30  50  40  50
EHA  93  66  89  65 /  40  50  40  40
LBL  94  68  92  68 /  30  30  40  40
HYS  93  68  91  69 /  30  50  60  70
P28  99  73  96  72 /  20  10  30  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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