Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301906
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
206 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED NEAR AND ALONG
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STORM INITIATION MAY BE AFFECTED DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
MUCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 60S(F). HOWEVER,
THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THAT AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO.  QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION.  THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION.  WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.  NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  80  54  70 /  30  20  30  20
GCK  54  78  51  69 /  10  20  50  20
EHA  51  78  50  69 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  53  80  53  71 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  57  78  53  67 /  30  30  50  30
P28  62  87  60  73 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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