Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 300833
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...short and long term updated...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Main issue this morning is unforecast fog. Visibilities continue
to crash and several sites have been at dense fog advisory. Have a
dense fog advisory along and east of Ellis to Comanche counties.
It might need to be expanded a bit west towards Dodge City, but
not sure of this just yet. Fog should erode around 9AM or so.

Otherwise, Summer continues with hot temperatures and southerly
winds. Smoke may hamper temperatures a bit, but winds will not be
from the northeast either. Lows will be in the 60s for Monday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ECMWF continues to trend less impressive with storm chances for
the first half of the extended. An upper level ridge along with
downslope low level southwesterly winds will lead to hot
temperatures with values well into the 90s. There might be a
slight chance of storms along the Colorado border Monday night,
however, chances are dwindling with neutral mid level height
rises. Wednesday could be hottest as winds are most downslope and
25-30C 850 temperatures are forecast. More of the same continues
for the rest of the week with broad southwesterly upper level flow
and low level troughing. Confidence is any model solution drops
off significantly towards the end of the period but the overall
synoptic pattern suggests hot.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Increasing concern for br and reduced visibilities for the morning.
MVFR conditions possible at KDDC and KHYS may decrease as low as IFR.
KGCK should remain at VFR throughout. Improvement back to VFR for the
two terminals is expected around 15Z. Winds will be light SE/S 5-15
kt.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  63  98  67 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  94  62  98  66 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  94  64  98  66 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  94  63  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  94  63  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
P28  94  65  96  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ031-046-
065-066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99


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