Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251102
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
602 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow and strong winds can be expected today across much of
  western and central Kansas.

- Hard freezes are predicted Tuesday and Wednesday mornings,
  with lows in the teens to low 20s.

- A period of dry weather is forecast for Tuesday through
  Sunday, along with a strong warming trend.

- A storm system will bring rain to central and western Kansas
  early next week, but rain amounts are expected to be light to
  moderate, with chances for greater than 1" extremely low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Strong cold advection was occurring this morning as a cold
front passed across western Kansas. An upper level system will
move slowly across western Kansas today. A mid level baroclinic
zone between 700 and 550mb, along with plenty of mid level
moisture and lift, will lead to areas of snow that will spread
eastward today and exit central Kansas late this evening. The
ECMWF and CMCE ensembles as well as the HRRR/RAP and other high
resolution models indicate only 20-40% probability of snow
accumulations higher than 3", with these chances along and west
of a line from Hays to Dodge City to Liberal. However, chances
for 1" or greater snow totals are 70-90% for this same area,
with lesser amounts to the south and east. Given the high winds
expected and temperatures in the 20s, this snow will accumulate,
even if it is late March with a higher sun angle. Strong winds
tend to evacuate accumulated heat away from road surfaces and
sidewalks. However, the snow will be difficult if not
impossible to measure with a high degree of accuracy given the
expected blowing snow and drifting. Visibilities could be
restricted to as low as a quarter of a mile for short intervals
in the areas of persistent snow.

Skies will clear late tonight, but winds will stay up much of
the night. But this is a cold air mass even if radiational
cooling is not ideal, so that teens to lower 20s can be expected
for lows. The snow cover and lighter winds in extreme western
Kansas could result in 10-15 degree readings out there.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Surface high pressure will settle across the plains
Tuesday night so that another hard freeze is forecast for
Wednesday morning, although not quite as cold as Tuesday morning.
The mid level flow will become more zonal by midweek so that
surface troughing will develop across the high plains,
resulting in warm advection and highs warming into the 70s to
near 80 by Friday and Saturday.

Rainfall chances increase by early to mid next week as the next
upper level trough develops over the southwestern United
States. The CMCE and ECMWF ensembles are in very good agreement
with the large scale pattern, showing a positively tilted upper
level trough over the Southwest that eventually approaches the
plains, which is generally not a favorable pattern for large
amounts of precipitation this far north and west. Indeed,
probabilistic information from these ensemble suites indicate
very high chances of rainfall greater than .1", but only modest
(30-50%) chances of rainfall greater than .5". This will likely
be an all rain event as the ensemble suites indicate near 0%
chance of snowfall in excess of 1" or greater.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Light snow will spread across southwest Kansas today from west
to east. With strong north winds at 25-30 kts, expect areas of
blowing snow, with reduced visibilities to below 1 mile at
times. CIGS will rise after 00z as drier air moves into the area
and snow ends.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this
evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>079-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch


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