Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190933
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
333 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

The Arctic front and associated stratus continues to move southward
early this morning across southwest Kansas. The main forecast concern
is where this boundary will stall out. Usually in these situations,
the cold air winds. Some of the models return the boundary northward
as a warm front due to cyclogenesis. Feel this might be a bit aggressive
and took the cooler solution guidance. Elkhart, Kansas will probably
win out with the warmest temperatures during the day. Otherwise, the
northern zones will see 30s, central zones 40s. The southern zones
near the Oklahoma border will see the most impressive temperature gradient
across these counties with 10 to 20 degree difference likely across
just a single county. The bottom line is that there is uncertainty
in the high temperature forecast for today. The good news is that with
the cooler temps, fire weather concerns should be lower if the evolution
of temps go as anticipated.

Have some slight pops late tonight across the eastern zones. Confidence
on actually seeing measurable precipitation is low. The EC and ARW/NMMB
show much of the light precipitation remaining east of the forecast
district. Would not be surprised if these pops are overdone and much
of the area remains dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

On Tuesday and Wednesday the cold air will prevail across the Central
Plains. Highs should range from the 20s to lower 40s Tuesday and mainly
30s Wednesday. Attention the turns to Thursday. Confidence on precipitation
and precipitation type is very low at this point. Some of the models
show a wintry mix, while others less so. At this point, it is just
too early to determine which model is correct. Any precipitation should
be mainly relegated to the eastern zones with much of the CWA remaining
dry. Beyond this, temperatures will moderate through the rest of the
extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Watch observations upstream across northwest Kansas and northeast
Colorado. Front with post frontal stratus is the main concern for the
TAF pd. As stratus heads south, MVFR to possibly IFR cigs are expected
for KGCK/KHYS/KDDC by early morning (psbl KLBL). A second concern associated
with the stratus is if cigs will improve to VFR or if the clouds will
linger. Confidence in the evolution of the stratus is low at this time.
Otherwise, winds will switch with the fropa /w N winds 10-20 kt in
its wake.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  27  35  11 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  44  20  32   9 /   0  10   0  10
EHA  68  28  40  13 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  59  32  43  11 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  34  18  27   9 /  10  20   0   0
P28  55  43  43  16 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden



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