Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221425
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
925 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 925 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

WV imagery indicates a weak westerly flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a weak upper level shortwave
trough is shifting east-southeast across North Dakota along the
Canadian border. Near the surface, a weak cold front is moving
slowly southward across northwest and north central Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Cluster of thunderstorms over northeast Colorado earlier this
evening had pushed an outflow boundary into central and southwest
Kansas early this morning. This boundary has been gradually
weakening as it moves east/southeast. Winds today across the
forecast area will be lighter and more variable than on Friday.

A fast moving closed low over southern Saskatchewan Friday evening
will move into the western Great Lakes by this evening. A weak
shortwave trough extending south from the low will brush by the
Dakotas and Nebraska today. An associated cool front will push
south into northern Kansas this afternoon and then south across
the remainder of western and central Kansas tonight.

A hot airmass will persist over the region today. Temperatures in
excess of 100 degrees are expected again this afternoon. Dewpoints
should mix out somewhat into the mid 50s to around 60 this
afternoon. In spite of this, apparent temperatures could still
climb to around 105 degrees or better in the area along and east
of a Meade to Hays line. The sultry conditions will be exacerbated
by the generally light winds this afternoon. Will keep the
ongoing Heat Advisory intact.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
and evening especially over northwest and north central Kansas.
Deep layer shear is pretty weak over much of the area but could
approach 30 knots or so over north central Kansas later today. The
threat for organized severe weather is fairly low but given the
inverted v signature on model soundings, some strong to damaging
winds will be possible. Chances for thunderstorms will be lower
farther south but will keep a slight chance going especially to
the west of Highway 283.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

The frontal boundary is expected to push through the forecast area
by Sunday morning. Temperatures behind the front will be
relatively cooler than today and closer to seasonal norms in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. South central Kansas could still spike up
into the mid to upper 90s depending on how far south the front makes
it before stalling out. There will be at least a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon mainly over the
southern half of the forecast area.

We will see a return of warmer temperatures to the region through
the early part of next week as the upper level ridge rebuilds
over the central High Plains. Another disturbance topping the
upper ridge around mid week could force another cool front south
into western Kansas...along with another increased chance for
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 702 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight except in the
vicinity of thunderstorms near HYS late this afternoon and
evening.

A strong upper level trough will move from southern Manitoba to
the Great Lakes by Sunday morning, and a weak cold front will
progress across western Kansas by late tonight. Early this
morning, the cold front extended from southeast Nebraska to an
area of low pressure in north central Kansas then to northeast
Colorado, and a trough line extended from the surface low to the
northern Texas Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to
develop near the cold front in northern Kansas by 21Z, and
damaging downburst winds are possible with the stronger
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms also are likely to develop in eastern
Colorado and subsequently to move into western Kansas this
evening. The thunderstorms will weaken during the late evening
hours. Low level winds will become north at 10 to 20 knots behind
the cold front tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 103  70  92  68 /  10  20  30  20
GCK 100  68  89  66 /  10  20  30  20
EHA  97  66  89  67 /  20  20  30  30
LBL 101  68  92  69 /  10  20  30  30
HYS 104  70  91  68 /  20  40  20  20
P28 106  75  97  71 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-045-046-
064>066-077>081-087>090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Ruthi



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