Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 260525
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1225 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTHWARD AND AUGMENTED BY EARLIER
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED BETWEEN GARDEN CITY AND HAYS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE FORECAST OF AROUND
2500 J/KG NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COULD SEE SOME
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS OF 50 MPH OR HIGHER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. A FEW
STORMS COULD APPROACH NEAR SEVERE LIMITS INTO THE EVENING. WEAK MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST STORMS
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 AND INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS GOING SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARDS MORNING WITH OUTFLOWS CAUSING THE FRONT
TO SAG MORE SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR SAINT
JOHN TO COLDWATER AND EAST MAY NOT SEE ANY STORMS AND BE WARMER
OVERNIGHT AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY, WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON, GENERALLY WEST OF A LARNED
TO COLDWATER LINE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN FORM WHERE ANY BOUNDARIES
ARE LEFT OVER. WEAKER INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY 15 TO 20 MPH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
MAINLY EAST OF DODGE CITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S
WEST OF DODGE CITY TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO AROUND 10C. THE BEST CHANCE OF THE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND
POINTS NORTHWARD FROM THERE WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO COOL TO AROUND
10C THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS SO THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER AND MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES DROP FURTHER, THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS,
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN
THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY, AND THEN FALL INTO THE 80S BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION INCREASE. THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER TO BRING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE GFS
THE MOST PROGRESSIVE. BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL BE OVER BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLOW WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WITH LEE TROUGHING BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE AGAIN SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. BUT MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME QUITE WARM SO THAT MID LEVEL CAPPING MAY
SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

LATEST RADAR TREND SHOWING CONVECTION TAPERING OFF ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 05Z. THIS WAS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
NAM AND HRRR SOLUTION. THESE MODELS ALSO INDICATED THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
STAY NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE HAYS AREA. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING
CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 10000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EASTERLY WINDS AT
10KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  92  68  87 /  30  30  40  40
GCK  67  90  66  86 /  40  40  50  40
EHA  66  88  65  84 /  30  40  40  40
LBL  68  92  67  87 /  30  40  40  40
HYS  68  91  67  86 /  50  50  60  40
P28  73  96  71  91 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT



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