Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281112
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS, FRONTOGENESIS, AND SPRINKLES WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST BY DAWN
FOLLOWED BY RAPID CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, SOME PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLY, MAINLY AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR. LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZE/FROST ADVISORY. LOWS WILL RUN
FROM THE MID 30S AROUND I-70 TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS MORNING DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAWN ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRANSITIONS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RAISING H85
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, EXPECT HIGHS PUSHING
UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S(F) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CYCLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL SEND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY HELPING TO CAP THE WARMING TREND AND DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S(F) THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HELPS REINFORCE THE COOLER
AIR MASS FILTERING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS
ONLY UP INTO THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER
TO MID 60S(F) LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  37  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  66  36  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  64  38  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  66  36  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  66  34  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
P28  69  39  73  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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