Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301929 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
229 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Dry upper level northwest flow will persist tonight into Thursday
behind the current exiting upper level wave and rain shield. Will
continue to decrease rainfall chances by this evening with only a 20
percent chance at Medicine Lodge early this evening. Skies will
partially clear tonight with partly cloudy skies on Thursday.
Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph this afternoon will decrease to
light and variable this evening into Thursday as surface high
pressure builds into western Kansas.

Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s to around 60 tonight
with highs warming back into the low to mid 80s on Thursday. Highs
may not warm as much as guidance with the wet soils.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Temperatures will rapidly modify through the 80s  on Thursday and
Friday as a dry and warmer plume noses into western Kansas from the
northern High Plains. A 592 dm 500 mb ridge over the central and
southern Rockies will influence sensible weather over the next few
days. Several models indicate potential for daytime surface based
convection over the sangre de cristo mts and into se Colorado. The
probabilities of any storms affecting far sw Kansas appears low at
this time.

The upper ridge will continue to dominate the region through moist
of this forecast period. The GFS does show a breakdown of the ridge
heading into the middle of next week with the eastward propagation
of a very slow moving pacific front. However no standout signal for
precipitation appears evident.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

IFR cigs and light showers will end quickly across the TAF sites
by early afternoon as the large area of showers moves east. Expect
northeast winds of 15-25kt to decrease to light and variable later
this afternoon and overnight with VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  83  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  57  83  59  87 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  59  80  59  87 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  60  83  60  88 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  58  86  61  90 /  10   0   0  10
P28  60  83  61  89 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Kruse





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