Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221256
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
756 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

The convective allowing models indicate convection through the day,
while having been overdoing this very same convective output on the
mid shift. There is probably better confidence in convective
initiation occurring along the dryline in the late afternoon
somewhere along the highway 83 corridor. No real significant chance
in the environment is present today over yesterday. Hail in excess
of 2 inches, damaging wind and tornadoes are all possible threats
through the mid evening. With storm motions north northeast, the
most severe storms are not likely to propagate very far east, however
lingering convection could develop into central Kansas into the
overnight hours, as well as some activity along a weak pacific
origin cold front making its way into the area by early Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Severe weather chances exist for our area for the next several days
as the pattern of relatively moderate instability, and weak upper
forcing remains stagnant. Storms will typically develop along the
dryline diurnally and probably be followed by yet another round
of stratus development for the overnight in this cycle. Monday
the pacific front look to have enough influence to favor the far
eastern counties for severe storms vs. the far west. The synoptic
pattern appears persistent overall leaving out the smaller scale
details. A shortwave moving through Friday will have little impact
on the overall synoptic pattern heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 756 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Widespread stratus with ceilings blo 010 in DDC and GCK will
persist, and ceilings in HYS will decrease from 020 to near 010 by
13Z. Visibilities will be restricted to 4-5 SM in mist at times.
The mist will evaporate after sunrise, and ceilings gradually will
improve to 015-025 by 17Z. Cloudiness will become bkn-sct 030
during the afternoon. A few high based showers or thunderstorms
may develop by late morning from east of DDC to near HYS.
Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are likely to develop in far
western Kansas near a dryline after 21Z. The thunderstorms should
approach GCK around 00Z and DDC around 03Z. They should weaken
considerably by 05Z-06Z. Ceilings near 010 will return by 06z.

An upper level ridge extending from central Texas to Minnesota
early this morning will propagate slowly east today and should
extend from eastern Texas to the Great Lakes by Monday morning. An
upper level trough rotating around a deep upper level low in the
northwestern United States is expected to move from southern
Nevada to the Dakotas by Monday morning. A dryline in eastern
Colorado will mix east into extreme western Kansas this afternoon
but will retreat tonight. A weak Pacific cold front will enter
northwest Kansas around 05Z and become stationary from north
central into southwest Kansas by 12Z Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  62  84  61 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  83  59  84  56 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  83  56  85  53 /  20  30  10   0
LBL  82  61  87  57 /  10  20  10  10
HYS  82  61  81  62 /  20  20  30  30
P28  81  64  82  66 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Ruthi



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