Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 031701
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1101 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Updated rain/snow coverage in the grids for the remainder of the
day, maxed out the sky grids at 100%, and lowered temperatures
about 2 degrees across the board. Kept pop grids quite high
across the eastern zones into the afternoon, given recent radar
trends of increasing rain/snow N/NE of Dodge City and continued
forcing for ascent. A mixture of rain and snow (currently raining
at the office) will likely favor rain by this afternoon. No
impacts expected, other than wet roads and limited visibility in
low ceilings and fog. Stratus is going nowhere until about
midnight tonight, when trough axis arrives to clear out the
moisture. Will probably have to include areas of fog this evening
as SE upslope commences in the saturated boundary layer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Precipitation chances decrease from west to east today, then be
confined to central and south central Kansas this evening. This
precipitation is expected to fall as snow across a majority of the
CWA this morning with the exception of south central Kansas where
temperatures look to remain above freezing. Any accumulations from
this snow look to be less than an inch. Mostly cloudy skies are
anticipated this morning with some clearing across far western
Kansas this afternoon. Winds look to be light throughout the day
shifting from northeast this morning to southeast this afternoon.
Cloudiness decreases from west to east this evening into the
overnight period with precipitation chances ending across south
central Kansas by 12Z Sunday. Winds will shift to more of a
westerly direction overnight at less than 10 mph. As for
temperatures, highs today look to only reach into the upper 30s
with the exception of south central Kansas where lower 40s are
possible. Lows tonight are anticipated to range from the upper
teens along the KS/CO border to around freezing across south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 221 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

A quiet and dry period is expected Sunday through Monday with
mostly clear skies and dry conditions. An upper level disturbance
moves through the Northern Plains Monday night which will in turn
push a cold front through western Kansas. No precipitation is
expected at this time with only an increase in cloud cover.
Cloudiness continues to increase Tuesday with a good chance of
precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. As of now, the
temperature looks to be cold enough for this precipitation to fall
as snow. This disturbance will quickly move out of the area by
Wednesday evening with decreasing cloudiness. A dry weather
pattern is then expected for the remainder of the week. As for
temperatures, highs Sunday and Monday look to top out in the upper
40s to lower 50s with lows in the 20s. A much cooler air mass
filters in Tuesday behind the cold front with highs ranging from
around 30 degrees across west central Kansas to around 40 degrees
across south central Kansas. Even colder temperatures are expected
Wednesday behind the second disturbance with highs only reaching
into the mid to upper 20s Wednesday then around 30 degrees
Thursday. Highs then rebound into the 30s Friday. Lows during this
time frame will dip into the teens Tuesday and Thursday nights
with single digits expected Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Poor flying conditions will continue through the entire afternoon
and into this evening. Scattered showers (-RW/-SW) will continue
through about 00z, but amounts will be light and impacts minimal.
HRRR model depicts another round of -RA affecting mainly DDC
00-03z Sun. Primary impact will be IFR/LIFR stratus cigs and low
vis in BR/FG that will persist at all airports into this evening.
After 06z Sun, rapid improvements to VFR/SKC expected as trough
axis clears SW KS. Much improved flying weather expected on
Sunday, with few clouds and a light NW breeze.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  27  49  27 /  60  20   0   0
GCK  37  24  49  27 /  30   0   0   0
EHA  38  23  49  26 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  37  25  48  25 /  50  10   0   0
HYS  35  25  49  27 /  60  10   0   0
P28  41  33  53  30 /  80  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner


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