Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 082042
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
342 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2014

...Updated Long Term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Tonight:

A fairly tranquil overnight period is expected tonight. Winds will be
light and variable as high pressure moves across the region. Mid clouds
this afternoon will move away from the area with a clearing sky, except
across far southwest Kansas where additional clouds from convection
from over the Rockies may linger longer. Overnight minimums will be
in the 60s.

Tomorrow:

There is a slight chance for showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
(however, MUCAPE less than 1000 J/kg) tomorrow morning. This is in association
with warm frontogenesis. Both cores of the WRF are the most liberal
with some light precipitation, while the operational NAM has nothing.
The 4 km NAM is in between, although has precip south of the region.
Given the uncertainty, will go with slight pops from Elkhart to St.
John and points southeast tomorrow morning. Severe weather is not expected.
Bufr soundings are not that impressive, so it may just be some mid level
clouds like we saw this morning. Frontogenesis weakens towards mid morning,
so will go with ghost pops thereafter. Increasing pops are expected
across the western zones Wednesday afternoon in association with a possible
late evening/overnight MCS, however, most of this activity is outside
of my short term period. Highs in the 80s/90s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Wednesday Night precipitation chances are a challenge, as a
surface-based MCS may evolve through the late evening hours as it
rolls southeast across southwest Kansas. We will have to watch for
some at least marginally severe storms through the mid to late
evening hours. Additional storms may form in the 800-700mb warm
frontogenetic zone across central and south-central Kansas in the
06-12Z time frame. The flow aloft will become a bit more westerly
with ridge building across New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle
Thursday. The effective surface front will be north of the southwest
Kansas region, and we will be keeping the forecast dry, as a result,
Thursday and Thursday Night. Temperatures should warm fairly
markedly into the upper 90s for highs, especially west of Highway 83
where dewpoints will be lower and subsequent mixing will be a bit
more prevalent. The ridging will be increased Friday with more areas
seeing 98 to 100F for highs more than likely as 850mb temperatures
reach +28 to near +30F by 00z Sat. Friday evening POPs will be
confined to just the far southwest and west-central Kansas zones
where a lee trough will be the focus for widely scattered
surface-based thunderstorm development.

As we go into the weekend, another hot day is anticipated Saturday,
but the weak frontal zone will slowly shift south. The ECMWF and
Canadian GEM models are most aggressive with the frontal push
Saturday with convective signal from the Canadian model well into
southwest Kansas. This may be a bit too aggressive of an initial
push by this model, as the GFS keeps the surface low up in
west-central Kansas and very warm 850mb temperatures still in place
across much of west central and even northwest Kansas. On the larger
scale, significant jet stream amplification will be occurring late
in the weekend and especially into next week, with a very
anomalously deep gyre expected to grip the Great Lakes region into
southeastern Ontario. The flow making up this large, longwave low
will reach the central Great Plains, with a fairly strong front
(definitely strong by mid-July standards), moving into Kansas by
early next week. The period July 16-19 may be marked by rather cool
temperatures and above normal precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Mid level clouds will linger today, however, cigs will continue to
remain VFR throughout the TAF pd. Northeasterly winds 8-12 kt will eventually
become light and variable tonight with high pressure moving over the
region.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  90  68  97 /  20  20  30  10
GCK  63  91  67  98 /  10  10  30  10
EHA  65  94  70  98 /  20  20  20  10
LBL  65  94  69  99 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  63  89  67  95 /  10  10  30  20
P28  66  90  69  96 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden





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