Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291933
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers along with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will
taper off from southwest to northeast overnight as a negatively
tilted upper level trough crosses western Kansas and isentropic
down glide develops in the I295 and I305 levels. Before this
precipitation ends the potential still exists for brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall this evening...mainly in north central
Kansas.

Unable to disagree with previous forecast for chilly overnight
lows tonight, especially west of a Dighton to Liberal line. Lows
are expected to fall back to around 35 in this area.

On Saturday ongoing precipitation will continue across north
central Kansas as an upper low will slowly move from northwest
Kansas into Nebraska. Based on the cool 900mb to 850mb
temperatures Saturday afternoon along with clouds will trend
towards undercutting guidance for highs Saturday. Highs in the 50
to 55 degree range appears reasonable in west central and north
central Kansas. Highs in the lower 60s will be possible in south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Occasional rain showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms
will be possible across western and north central Kansas through
tonight. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to taper off
from southwest to northeast between 06z and 12z Saturday. Until
this rain tapers off IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities can be
expected at all three taf sites. In some of the steadier and
heavier showers late this afternoon LIFR ceilings. Once the
precipitation ends the ceilings will begin to improve.
Northeasterly winds at around 15 knots this afternoon will shift
to the northwest and decrease to 10 to 15 knots after 03z
Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  56  39  55 /  40  10  10  20
GCK  37  52  38  52 /  30  10  10  30
EHA  35  55  36  52 /  20  10  10  40
LBL  38  58  38  55 /  20  10  10  30
HYS  42  53  41  53 /  70  40  20  20
P28  44  64  44  61 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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