Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 152344
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
544 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1245 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

A strong winter storm will continue to impact southwest and central
Kansas tonight through early Monday as short range models indicate a
strong closed off upper level low lifting northeast across the Texas
Panhandle into eastern Kansas during the period. Ample moisture will
continue to wrap up into an associated surface low as it moves up into
eastern Kansas while an attendant frontal boundary provides sufficient
forcing/lift across central and portions of western Kansas. Taking
into consideration recent radar trends, along with vertical sounding
profiles and surface temperatures remaining at or just below freezing,
intermittent freezing rain will continue this evening through early
Monday morning. Based on most short range model QPF signals, another
tenth to a quarter inch of ice accumulation will be possible overnight,
moreso on elevated surfaces with surface temperatures hovering closer
to 30F. Slick roads and highways can still be expected however. A mix
of sleet/snow will be possible across west central and extreme southwest
Kansas toward early Monday morning as colder air begins to filter
southward into the area. Could see snow accumulations upward of 1 to
4 inches by Monday afternoon before precip chances dissipate late
Monday.

As mentioned earlier, look for temperatures to hover in the mid 20s(F)
to near 30F tonight with prevailing overcast skies and intermittent
precipitation. Highs are only expected to reach up into the 30s(F)
Monday afternoon as precip chances slowly dwindle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 133 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

A drier weather pattern can be expected through the end of the
week as medium range models show weak upper level ridging moving
out of the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains during
the period. An extremely weak flow aloft along with drier air in
the lower/mid levels migrating into western Kansas will keep precip
chances at bay across the region through the time period.

A warming trend can be expected through the end of the week as a
westerly, then southwesterly downslope flow set up across western
Kansas drawing warmer air into the area through the period. Well
above normal temperatures are likely by Thursday with highs reaching
the 50s(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 542 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Significant ice conditions will continue at GCK, DDC, and HYS
through the night. Precipitation type will change to sleet at GCK
during the overnight hours, but most likely remain freezing rain
through nearly the end of the storm at DDC and HYS early tomorrow
morning. Afterwards, winds will be from the north at 10 to 15
knots with gusts to 20 knots. IFR/LIFR will also persist through
the day Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  35  26  43 / 100  70  10   0
GCK  27  35  24  42 / 100  70  20   0
EHA  26  38  23  48 / 100  50  20   0
LBL  27  38  26  46 / 100  50  10   0
HYS  27  34  25  41 / 100  90  20   0
P28  32  40  27  47 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid



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