Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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099
FXUS63 KDDC 281914
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
214 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

...Updated short and long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

A strong upper level low pressure system over the southern Great
Lakes this morning will slowly move south into the Ohio Valley
through Thursday. This system pushed a weak backdoor cold front
through southwest Kansas this morning. Temperatures should rise a
few more degrees this afternoon but should top out anywhere from
the mid 70s in central Kansas to the mid/upper 80s in the southwest
corner. Surface high pressure will continue to nose into the central
High Plains through Thursday. The cooler high pressure airmass
will keep temperatures confined to around 70 degrees in central
Kansas ranging to the mid 70s along the Colorado border. Drier air
associated with the upper level high pressure ridge will keep
skies mainly clear through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The upper level ridge over the central Plains will begin to break down
by weeks end with westerly, albeit weak, flow aloft increasing over
the central High Plains. This trajectory will allow weak disturbances
in the upper level flow to move out over the region with chances for
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms increasing again by Saturday
night. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal through the end
of the week with daytime highs generally staying in the 70s.

Through the early part of next week, the medium range models are
indicating a strong upper level system moving into western North
America and potentially impacting the central High Plains by
around next Monday or Tuesday. The models have shown fairly poor
run-to-run consistency with the strength and potential track of
this system. Suffice it to say there will be increasing chances
for thunderstorms with possible severe weather somewhere across
central or even western Kansas late Monday or more likely Tuesday
afternoon and evening. By the middle of next week, daytime high
temperatures may only be reaching the 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Surface high pressure building into the central High Plains
will bring northeasterly winds at around 10 to 15 knots to the
terminals this afternoon. Winds should diminish to less than 10
knots between 21z-00z and become more easterly. A dry airmass
will result in VFR skies and visibilities through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  43  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  83  42  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  85  46  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  85  45  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  76  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  80  46  70  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard



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