Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 210818
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
318 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

...Updated synopsis and short term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

The 00z upper air analysis showed a shortwave trough extending from
southern Nebraska across southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle.
With fairly light steering flow aloft, this trough was slowly moving
eastward through the High Plains this morning. Thunderstorms over
central and western Kansas that had fired up Sunday afternoon had
pretty much dissipated early this morning. There were a few showers
over central Kansas around Hays and Lacrosse which were associated
with an MCV leftover from the thunderstorm complex earlier in the
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

The main shortwave trough is depicted by the models to move into
eastern Kansas this morning. The RUC model has picked up on the MCV
over central Kansas and moves it southward into northwest Oklahoma
today in the northwesterly flow on the backside of the trough. Model
soundings show instability around 600-800 j/kg of CAPE as a mid
level cold pool moves southeast across western Kansas today. Given
the forcing with the MCV and a nearly uncapped sounding profile this
afternoon over south central Kansas, will add some slight chance
pops for showers and isolated thunder to the forecast.

Things will quiet down fairly quickly late this afternoon and early
evening as a ridge of surface high pressure moves east through the
High Plains. Winds will become light and variable in the evening and
gradually swing around to the southeast and south. Overnight lows
will be the coolest over central Kansas where low to mid 40s are
expected. Lows will drop into the upper 40s to around 50 along the
Colorado border where increasing southerly winds will help keep
temperatures up a few degrees more.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Upper level ridging builds over the Plains Monday night through
Tuesday with dry conditions in the mid levels. This will allow
mostly clear skies to be observed across western Kansas. This will
be short lived as the next storm system moves into the Northern
Rockies Tuesday night into Wednesday. Southerly winds will be felt
across western Kansas as this system approaches with increasing mid
level moisture Tuesday night. A moderate upper level jet will be
found above western Kansas on Wednesday enhancing lift across the
area. Southerly winds will continue at the surface becoming windy in
the afternoon. In addition, a dryline is suggested to develop in the
afternoon with CAPE and shear increasing as the day progresses.
These conditions will bring a chance of thunderstorms ahead of the
dryline from late afternoon into Wednesday night. A few of these
storms could become strong to severe with large hail and damaging
winds being the main concern. A cold front then moves through
western Kansas Thursday morning shifting winds to the north. Lows
Tuesday morning will be in the low to mid 40s with highs Tuesday
reaching into the upper 70s and lower 80s. The warmest day of the
week looks to be on Wednesday with lows in the mid 50s and highs in
the lower 80s. Lows Thursday morning look to range from the mid 40s
across west central Kansas where the aforementioned cold front is
expected to move through early to upper 50s across south central
Kansas where the front is not expected to move through by sunrise.

Dry conditions are then expected during the remainder of the week as
an upper level ridge builds above the Plains with dry conditions in
the mid levels. Winds shift back to the south by Saturday as the
next storm system entered the western United States. This system is
expected to affect western Kansas this weekend bringing an increase
in clouds and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs Thursday through this
weekend will generally be in the 70s with lower 80s possible across
far southwestern Kansas on Saturday. Lows will generally be in the
mid to upper 40s Friday and Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Low level moisture advecting up into southwest Kansas could result
in 2-4 miles in mist along with IFR stratus. There is some
uncertainty as to how widespread it will become. For now will have
a tempo group for lower visibility at Garden City and Dodge City
early this morning with conditions improving to VFR between 10 and
12z. A cold front will move through around sunrise and sweep the
low level moisture out of the area. By this afternoon, some
instability showers could develop in the area around and east of
Dodge City and have added VCSH to the Dodge City TAF for this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  44  79  56 /  10   0  10  20
GCK  75  44  82  57 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  74  50  83  57 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  76  46  83  57 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  75  42  79  55 /  10   0  10  20
P28  76  46  79  54 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Gerard






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