Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 311104
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
604 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER THIS EVENING AND
SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM CENTERED IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
CLOSES OFF AND WALLOWS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAINTAINING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, BUT DIFFERENCES
IN SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SPREAD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH H7 TEMPERATURES ABOVE 10C ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, AND NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL APPEAR LIKELY NEARLY EVERY DAY. LOCATION OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE PROCESSES
THAT ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO ANTICIPATE THAT FAR IN THE FUTURE. THERE
SHOULD BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR STUDY BY SCIENTISTS WITH THE
PLAINS ELEVATED CONVECTION AT NIGHT PROJECT.

IN THE MORE IMMEDIATE FUTURE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE EXTENSIVE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS SPREADING BACK INTO
STAFFORD, PRATT, BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTIES, BUT THE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW AREAS OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER AROUND THE EDGE OF
THE PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK.

PRESSURES WILL FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE DAKOTAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD BACK INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TODAY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH, AND CAPES WILL APPROACH 2500
JOULES/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF LARGE SCALE FORCING, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS
AND PRODUCTION OF SOME HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE- ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNSET.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH H8 WINDS ONLY IN
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THIS EVENING, AND A LONG LIVED CONVECTIVE
EVENT IS UNLIKELY. THE INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLY WILL
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDED FROM WASHINGTON INTO NORTHERN IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS LATER TONIGHT AND INTERACT WITH MID LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY ON THE EAST EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL WARM POOL.
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT JUST EAST OF DODGE CITY AND TO PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY GRADUALLY WILL RECOVER FROM THE INVASION OF
COLD AIR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST TONIGHT TO SUPPORT SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE WIND AND CLOUD COVER FROM ANVIL DEBRIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY
MORNING WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LINGERING CONVECTION EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 850MB TEMPERATURES BY
00Z TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 16C IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TO NEAR 28C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. USING THIS AS A
GUIDE FOR HIGHS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM UPPER 70S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER 80S IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. GIVEN THE DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
THESE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE ALSO SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MODELS THIS MORNING REMAINED IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXITING THE ROCKIES AND MOVING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER SPREADS EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THESE WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON WHERE THE EDGE OF 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED. AS FOR MONDAY EVENING
THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE ON THE MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE ALONG WITH THE TIMING
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE FOLLOWED THE GENERAL
WARMING TREND IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LEVEL EACH DAY. THIS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK.

MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE
WEEK AS THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GET SHIFTED SOUTH WHICH WILL
RESULT IN PLACING THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER SOUTH
ALSO. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG WITH ANY
SUBTLE WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL
PLAIN LATE WEEK THE CHANCE FOR EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD. AREA MORE FAVORABLE WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDES AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS IT
CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING VFR THE CLOUD BASES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 9000FT AGL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY IN WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH MID
WEEK. WATER LEVELS ON CROOKED CREEK WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. THE
PAWNEE RIVER NEAR BURDETT CRESTED SATURDAY MORNING WELL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE DOWNSTREAM AT ROZEL AND LARNED
AS THE HIGH FLOW MOVES DOWN THE CHANNEL, BUT THE PAWNEE SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  56  79  63 /   0  20  10  20
GCK  79  56  82  63 /   0  20  10  20
EHA  83  58  89  61 /   0  20  10  20
LBL  80  58  83  62 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  75  54  78  61 /   0  30  20  30
P28  76  57  80  62 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
HYDROLOGY...RUTHI


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