Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 250645
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
145 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
...Updated Long Term...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
SE boundary layer flow continues to advect moisture into SW KS,
with dewpoints well into the 50s. Still no signs of advection fog
or stratus on satellite, and many of the short term models have
backed off on its development this morning. Will continue to
monitor. Otherwise, cirrus will thicken and lower through this
morning, with a mid-layer overcast expected by mid morning. Cloud
cover and moisture/SE winds will keep temperatures unseasonably
mild in the 50s through sunrise. A low of 55 at Dodge City would
be 15 degrees above normal for late October.
Shortwave trough producing thunderstorms across Arizona this
morning will arrive in western Kansas this afternoon and central
Kansas this evening. Clouds will remain thick ahead of this
incoming shortwave, but despite the clouds, afternoon temperatures
will remain unseasonably warm and way above normal. Expecting
highs mainly in the lower 80s with continued warm advection and
downsloping SW winds. Normal for late October is mid 60s.
SW winds will be strong and gusty this afternoon, particularly
across the SE 2/3 of the CWA, where gusts near 30 mph are
expected. Models have shown consistency not developing scattered
thunderstorms until after 7 pm/00z. As such, kept all zones dry
through 7 pm.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Vorticity maximum/shortwave trough producing thunderstorms in
Arizona this morning is expected to produce scattered
thunderstorms this evening, mainly across central Kansas and the
eastern 1/2 of the CWA. Have noted 00z GFS is much more robust
with convective development across the eastern/SE zones after
7 pm, while other models such as NAM are less enthusiastic. Model
blended pop grids came out to low end chance/scattered for the
eastern zones this evening/tonight, and that looks fine for now.
That said, GFS/MAV guidance would argue for likely pops from Dodge
City to near Medicine Lodge tonight. Hail is a risk from some of
the stronger elevated storms, and the 5% hail/wind probability
from SPC Day 1 (marginal risk) matches our thinking. Much of the
guidance indicates areas of fog developing Wednesday morning
across the SE zones, especially in areas that receive rainfall,
and inserted this into the weather grids.
And that is about as interesting as SW KS weather gets this week.
A northerly wind shift on Wednesday will only shave a couple
degrees off the afternoon temperatures. High pressure ridging
wastes no time building back onto the plains starting Wednesday,
with 500 mb heights near 585 dm Wednesday and near 587 dm
Thursday. Quiet weather will result, with few if any clouds, light
winds, zero pops, and unseasonably warm temperatures. Back in the
lower 80s Thursday afternoon.
Friday...Strong warming expected, with record/near record highs
likely. The record high at Dodge City for October 28th is 85 set
way back in 1922, and this will likely fall with model blend,
bias corrected and MEX guidance in the mid to upper 80s. Some
locations will undoubtedly reach 90 on Friday afternoon, most
likely south of Dodge City.
Saturday...5-10 degrees of cooling behind another weak
progressive shortwave passing north of SW KS, but still way above
late October normals.
Sunday and Halloween...Still no changes, persistently warm and
dry. More 80s likely Halloween afternoon. Cold air trapped in
Canada shows no signs of coming south, with no signs of any
freezes through the end of October.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016
Shortwave over western Arizona this evening will affect SW KS
terminals through the TAF period. Moisture continues to increase
courtesy of SE boundary layer flow tonight, with dewpoints well
into the 50s. Will keep an eye out for stratus or advection fog,
but with no signs of it developing and many short term models
not forecasting it, will leave out of TAFs for now. Did mention
SW LLWS overnight as 850 mb winds increase. Widespread high clouds
will thicken and lower through Tuesday morning, with mid-layer
overcast expected by 15z Tue. After 15z Tue, SW winds of 18-28 kts
at HYS/DDC, a few kts weaker at GCK. Scattered -TSRA expected to
develop by 03z Wed, and included VCTS at HYS/DDC.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 55 81 54 79 / 0 10 30 0
GCK 52 82 49 79 / 0 0 10 0
EHA 52 85 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 54 84 51 80 / 0 10 10 0
HYS 53 80 53 76 / 0 10 20 0
P28 58 80 59 80 / 0 0 30 10