Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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103
FXUS63 KDDC 051132
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
532 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Dry conditions are expected through tonight with only a slight
increase in high cloud cover this afternoon into tonight. Winds
will generally be from the south to southwest through this
afternoon then shift to more of a northerly direction tonight as a
cold front moves through the area. This is due to an upper level
low digging southward into the Northern Plains. Gusty northerly
winds are expected behind this front overnight allowing wind
chills to dip into the teens by sunrise Tuesday. As for
temperatures, highs today look to range from the lower 50s across
north central Kansas to lower 60s across far southwestern Kansas.
Lows tonight are progged to range form the teens across northwest
Kansas to upper 30s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 233 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

A second upper level disturbance will move through the Pacific
Northwest and Intermountain west Tuesday then into the Central
Rockies Tuesday night. Ultimately this disturbance will move into
the Central Plains Wednesday. Cloud cover will increase as this
system approaches with a cold front moving through the area on
Wednesday. This disturbance is moving through the area too fast to
allow any meaningful moisture to arrive from the Gulf of Mexico.
However, lift ahead of this system will be strong and lead to snow
development as it passes. Latest model runs continue to show the
best opportunity for measurable snowfall to be across northern
Kansas with lesser amounts as you head southward. Nevertheless,
this system is still 2+ days out and track could change a hundred
miles or so to the north or south. Snow looks to start out across
northwestern Kansas and northeastern Colorado Tuesday night then
spread east southeastward as the day progresses Wednesday. Strong
northerly winds are expected behind the aforementioned cold front,
so anywhere there is measurable snow there could also be blowing
snow as a hazard. A quieter weather pattern starts Wednesday night
and continues through the remainder of the forecast period. This
is due to ridging over the western United states leaving west
northwest flow over western Kansas. At the surface, high pressure
will slide through the area and into the southeastern United
States by Friday night with a trough of low pressure developing
across eastern Colorado.

In addition to the snow, a cold arctic air mass will invade
western Kansas Wednesday through Friday. Highs will start out
Tuesday ranging from the mid 30s across west central Kansas to
lower 40s across south central Kansas then only reach into the 20s
Wednesday and Thursday. We rebound into the 30s to lower 40s
Thursday then 40s to mid 50s Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures
will start out Tuesday night ranging from the mid teens across
west central Kansas to mid 20s across south central Kansas.
Temperatures in the single digits to lower teens will be found for
lows Wednesday and Thursday nights before rebounding into the low
to mid 20s Friday and Saturday nights. With strong winds expected
across western Kansas, wind chills look to fall into the single
digits to negative single digits Wednesday morning then negative
single digits to negative teens Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this evening.
South-southwesterly winds will increase 15 to 25kt through this afternoon
as a lee side trough of low pressure strengthens across eastern Colorado.
Winds will then turn northerly 20 to 30kt late this evening as a cold
front begins pushing through western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  24  38  20 /   0   0   0  30
GCK  59  22  37  16 /   0   0   0  30
EHA  63  22  36  18 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  60  24  38  19 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  52  24  36  18 /   0   0   0  50
P28  56  29  42  25 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...JJohnson



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