Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 010950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
350 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
AFFECTING MAINLY THE DDC AND GCK TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE HI
RESOLUTIONS AND RAPID REFRESH MODELS INIDCATE A NARROW BAND OF WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE EITHER SNOW OR SLEET, BETWEEN NOW AND MID MORNING.
BASED ON RECENT MODEL RUNS, THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE MORE  OF AN
ISSUE FOR DDC THAN GCK, AND LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN MVFR STRATUS
AT HYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  18  38  35 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  31  18  40  34 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  33  20  45  37 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  34  23  43  37 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  36  17  37  33 /  10  10  20  20
P28  32  20  37  34 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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