Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271819
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
119 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Models remain in good agreement with an upper level trough
crossing the Central High Plains overnight as a surface
boundary/weak cold front crosses southwestern Kansas. Water vapor
loop earlier this morning indicated an upper level disturbance,
located over southern Colorado at 12z Thursday. Dprog/dt along
with the RAP and NAM suggesting that this disturbance will precede
the main upper trough and will be crossing southwest Kansas
between 18z Thursday and 00z Friday. Based on the timing of the
southern Colorado upper wave along with 700mb moisture, 700mb
frontogenesis, and afternoon mid level instability ahead of this
wave late day will be leaning towards the HRRR,RAP,ARW, and NMM
with the better chances for scattered thunderstorms developing
along and east of a Dighton to Hugoton line. the main hazards from
these storms still appear to be hail quarter size and smaller
along with wind gusts of near 60 mph based on the latest RAP 0-6km
shear and CAPE values late today and early this evening. Periods
of moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible, especially
east of highway 283. These thunderstorms are expected to move east
overnight as another area of scattered thunderstorms develop
further west near the weak cold front/surface boundary as it and
the main upper trough crosses western Kansas between 03z and 12z
Friday. Severe weather is not anticipated with these storms,
however moderate rainfall and lightning still will be likely.

A few lingering thunderstorms will be possible across south
central Kansas early Friday morning, however as the upper level
trough moves east towards the mid Mississippi valley these storms
will quickly end and skies will begin to clear from west to east.
As the weak cold front continues to move south across Oklahoma
during the day the 900mb to 850mb temperatures will cool. 850mb
mix down temperatures at 00z Saturday continue to supports highs
mainly in the 85 to 90 degree range.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

WE WILL SEE A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS SLIGHTLY COOLER 850-HPA TEMPERATURES ADVECT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
EXPECTING UPPER 80S FOR THESE DAYS. THE HEAT WILL RETURN WITH 90S LIKELY
BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EXTENDED
MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SUPERBLEND HAS ISOLATED
15-20 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. I SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MOST AREAS REMAIN HOT AND DRY SINCE ANY ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL
ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE FOR
THIS SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Clouds will thicken and lower this afternoon as a Colorado upper
level trough moves east towards western Kansas. At this time based
on the NAM BUFR along with the RAP and NMM the VFR ceilings by
late day/early evening will lower to around 3500 ft AGL. In
addition to the lowering ceilings there will also be a chance for
thunderstorms ahead of the upper level trough late today and early
tonight. DDC and HYS will have the better opportunity for
convection for thunderstorms between 21z Thursday and 03z Friday.
GCK also has a chance but it appears to be prior to 00z Friday,
and the probability is less than 50 percent. As this upper level
trough passes the chance for storms will end and skies will begin
to slowly clear. Gusty southwest winds will continue until a cold
front crosses southwest Kansas between 03z and 09z Friday. As this
cold front passes the winds will shift to the north at 10 to 15
knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  88  60  89 /  50  10   0   0
GCK  64  88  59  89 /  40  10   0   0
EHA  64  88  59  89 /  30  10  10   0
LBL  66  89  60  90 /  50  10   0   0
HYS  65  87  59  89 /  60  10   0   0
P28  70  91  63  90 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...Burgert


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