Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281955
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
155 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER THE RAP
AND NAM WERE IN BOTH DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN WINDS IN THE
0 TO 500M AGL LEVEL CONTINUING AT 20 TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
THIS ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT THE LATEST MOSGUIDE,MAV, AND MET
GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT OVERNIGHT WILL
STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 40 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WHICH WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA EARLIER THIS MORNING, CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS AVERAGING FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT BETWEEN 12Z THURSDAY AND 18Z THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION THE 0-1KM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL 8 TO 10C
BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. 12Z NAM INDICATED THAT THE
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM 10C TO 14C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO 0
TO 3C AT 00Z FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GFS WAS EVEN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS IN COOLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST MOSGUIDE AND MAV WHICH WERE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SYSTEM ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST LIKE THIS ONE WOULD OFTEN NOT YIELD
PRECIPITATION IN THE WINTER; HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE
PREVIOUSLY BEEN MOISTENED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT SO
THAT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE (RAIN OR SNOW) AND AMOUNTS.
GIVEN THE WEAK LEE TROUGHING, SOUTH WINDS AND LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION, THIS LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A RAIN AND WET SNOW EVENT WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW EFFECTIVE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT CHILLING THE AIR IN A 2000 FT
LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND, PREVENTING THE FALLING SNOW AT MID
LEVELS FROM MELTING JUST BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THESE DETAILS
ARE HARD TO PREDICT 12 OR 24 HOURS BEFORE AN EVENT, MUCH LESS
72-96 HOURS PRIOR. JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE CAN
MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN OR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OUGHT
TO BE MONDAY MORNING, WITH MAINLY TEENS (POSSIBLY SOME SINGLE
DIGITS AS WELL). TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, ALONG WITH
WEAK LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY GIVEN THAT ONLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WIND SPEEDS FROM THE
RAP AND NAM BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A ENFORCEMENT OF COLDER
AIR CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  49  26  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  34  49  28  47 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  37  48  32  44 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  36  51  30  44 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  36  47  25  47 /   0   0   0  10
P28  41  51  26  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT



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