Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261140
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

NAM AND GFS WERE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY AND THEN ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHESTODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BY LATE DAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS POOLING JUST
NORTH/WEST OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO DISAGREE
ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE BY LATE DAY THE NAM
AND GFS DO AGREE THAT LATE DAY SURFACE BASED CAPES ALONG AND NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RANGE FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE HIGHER CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF AN ELKHART TO RUSH
CENTER AREAS LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. 0-6KM SHEAR HOWEVER
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 20KNOTS SO A FEW STRONG PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE DAY, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S BASED ON 00Z 850MB TO 700MB TEMPERATURES FROM
THE NAM AND GFS.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
TONIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME WILL PLACE
THE HIGHER CHANCES JUST AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE AS IT CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 03Z WEDNESDAY AND 09Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL TREK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THEN
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS IT APPROACHES AND PASSES
OVERHEAD. MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE SATURATED
THROUGH SATURDAY ALLOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE OBSERVED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS,
NORTHEAST COLORADO, AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE KS/NE LINE.
A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS,
WESTERN OKLAHOMA, AND WESTERN TEXAS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH
THESE FEATURES IN PLACE, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE STORM EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LIFT IS
STRONGEST THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S WITH 80S EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS THEN REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOWS LOOK
TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
60S THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT HAVE LEFT THE MENTION
OF THEM OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69  92  69 /  20  30  60  40
GCK  93  67  90  67 /  30  50  40  50
EHA  93  66  89  65 /  40  50  40  40
LBL  94  68  92  68 /  30  30  40  40
HYS  93  68  91  69 /  30  50  60  70
P28  99  73  96  72 /  20  10  30  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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