Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161835
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE
SURFACE, AN ARCTIC HIGH IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE TEENS(F) AND
THE LOWER 20S(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST OUT
OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TONIGHT, MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS, PRECIP WILL REMAIN ABSENT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES FROM EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE
20S(F) AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER 30S(F) A POSSIBILITY IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SETS UP DUE TO A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS PUSHING H85
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
WIDESPREAD 40S(F) ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 50F
POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MOST OF THE ATTENTION WAS TURNED TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
PERIOD IS THE MOST IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION. IN FACT,
THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF SHOWING THAT THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY WHEN
IT COMES TO APPRECIABLE RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS. THE WHOLE SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZE DRIZZLE EVENT AS
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS UNSATURATED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES, WHERE
PROPER SATURATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS POSSIBLE AND THUS
THIS REGION MAY SEE MORE IN TERMS OF SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. SPEAKING
OF PRECIPITATION TYPE, CONTINUED TO EMPLOY THE TOP DOWN APPROACH WITH
MATCHED PROBABILITIES OF DIFFERENTIAL WEATHER TYPES. USING THIS TECHNIQUE,
INDEED, MOST OF THE REGION HAS A DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OF DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. AGAIN, THE EASTERN/NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE MORE
SNOW PRECIPITATION TYPE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AND THIS WHOLE EVENT IS TURNING INTO A DUD AS FAR AS WINTER WEATHER
IS CONCERNED. I SUPPOSE SOME SLICK AREAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FREEZE
DRIZZLE, BUT QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS
THE MOST PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA PRECIPITATION PROCESSES WILL
BE WELL EAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

SOME MODIFICATIONS OF SUPERBLEND POPS WERE DONE AFTER WFO COORDINATION
IN THE NEXT SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME. SYNOPTIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN BOREAL WINTER AND
THUS HAVE GONE WITH GHOST POPS FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE,
MAYBE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10KT
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  25  45  30 /   0   0  20  30
GCK  40  25  47  28 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  43  32  50  29 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  43  30  48  30 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  38  20  40  25 /   0   0  10  30
P28  44  25  42  32 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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