Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 140649
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1249 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Although drier conditions are expected to persist during the period,
there is an outside shot for extremely light precip across extreme
western Kansas late tonight as an upper level shortwave in the
Northern Rockies drops south-southeast into the Central Rockies and
the Western High Plains. Much drier air will persist in the
lower/mid levels through late this evening, but short range model
soundings show vertical profiles beginning to moisten and nearing
saturation late tonight as the shortwave drops into Colorado.
Considering extreme weak QPF signals are present, will retain a
slight chance for light snow across west central and extreme
southwest Kansas for early Thursday morning. A secondary upper level
shortwave will drop south across the Dakotas into Nebraska and
Kansas Thursday afternoon resulting in an additional slight chance
for precip across central Kansas late in the period.

Colder air will filter into western Kansas tonight in wake of a cold
frontal passage earlier today. Expect lows well down into the 30s(F)
again tonight with the upper 20s(F) possible in some locations.
Colder air will spread southward across western Kansas through the
day Thursday lowering H85 temperatures down to around 0C. Should see
highs only up into the 40s(F) Thursday afternoon with near 50F still
possible in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

A drier pattern will set up through the end of the week as a
northwest flow aloft develops across the Western High Plains in wake
of a departing upper level shortwave trough. Medium range models
show ridging aloft breaking down as it moves out of the Intermountain
West into the Central Plains early in the period. A relatively weak
flow aloft and a lack of low/mid level moisture will help keep precip
chances at bay through at least Saturday night. There is a very slight
chance for light precip Sunday as an upper level trough digs into the
Desert Southwest creating an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft
across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary is
projected to push through western Kansas sometime late in the weekend,
providing a focus for increased forcing. Still, limited moisture will
hinder precip chances in general Sunday.

A warm up is likely Friday as weak lee side troughing develops across
eastern Colorado setting up a westerly downslope flow into western
Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures well above 0C. Should see highs up
into the mid to upper 50s(F) Friday afternoon. The warming trend
continues Saturday as the lee side trough strengthens bringing about
a more southwest flow. This will enhance warm air advection into
western Kansas pushing H85 temperatures up around to a little above
10C. Expect highs closer to 60F Saturday afternoon. Colder temperatures
return late in the weekend as a cold front pushes through western Kansas
sometime Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1248 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Broad high surface pressure will continue to slowly overtake the
High Plains region with source area over the Central Rockies. Light
northwest winds though the night will increase to around 12-15 mph
late morning and gust to the low 20s in the afternoon. Clouds are
not expected to directly impact aviation, although the NAM/GFS
model have probably overdone a forecast of light snow in the
extreme southwest area west of LBL. Ceiling forecasts from the
HRRR model indicate nothing lower than 5,000 ft in those areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  46  21  55 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  29  45  20  56 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  29  43  22  57 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  31  45  20  56 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  29  44  22  54 /   0  20  10   0
P28  32  49  24  54 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell



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