Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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553
FXUS63 KDDC 171752
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1252 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...Updated Short Term

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Like yesterday, a nice fall day is occurring in Southwest Kansas.
Unlike yesterday, the wind is less than 10 mph this afternoon and
evening. Very little change to the upper level northwest flow
today over the region today, and with this dry airmass, skies will
keep clear. High temperatures today will reach the upper 70s, and
with the clear skies, a few areas reaching 80 can`t be ruled out.
Tonight, wind will remain light with lows in the mid to upper
40s.

Tomorrow, a fast-moving upper level trough will enter British
Columbia and track into central Manitoba by mid-day tomorrow. This
will create a large area of surface low pressure reaching into
western Kansas. This will push a weak boundary into our CWA;
the only impact to our region will be a lack of wind tomorrow
afternoon as the trough axis moves through. Highs tomorrow should
reach the lower 80s, and will result in another tranquil, fall
day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Much more of a surface pressure gradient develops by late Thursday
and into Friday, as well as a marked increase in the southerly
surface winds by Friday. The downslope component will probably be
lost however, model consensus is betting Wednesday will be the
warmest day of the week. A strong upper trough will move across the
Pacific Northwest beginning Friday, as the the stronger pressure
gradient develops over the high plains region. Gusty conditions
should develop Friday followed by the passing of a Pacific cold
front across western Kansas during the middle of the weekend. At
this time, the GFS and ECMWF would relegate thunderstorms along
the moisture transport region/warm sector ahead of the 850 mb
front (in this case meaning the best chances for rain or storms
across our eastern counties). Weather remains fall-like into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites providing great flying
conditions over the next 24 hours. Wind will generally flow under
10 knots, establishing a southerly direction this afternoon with
few clouds. Wind turns southwesterly tomorrow morning, but will
remain under 10 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  47  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  80  45  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  80  45  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  79  45  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  78  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  76  47  78  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Reynolds



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