Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261908
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
208 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across central and
potentially eastern portions of southwest Kansas this evening
as short range models indicate an extremely strong closed off
upper level low lifting northward across eastern Wyoming tonight.
Meanwhile, a series of H5 vort maxima will cycle northeast into
the high plains of western Kansas within an increasingly divergent
flow this evening as the trough axis pivots, becoming more negatively
tilted. Near the surface, a deepening low across eastern
Colorado...with an attendant warm front stretching into northern
Kansas...is projected to dislodge into western Kansas this
evening while an established dryline anchored across central
Kansas is expected to retreat somewhat across south central Kansas.
Ahead of the dryline...strong moisture advection within a prevailing
southerly flow is pushing surface dewpoints well into the 60s(F),
further increasing low/mid level instability. Short range model
soundings point to SBCAPE values upward of 3000 to 4000 J/KG
initially across eastern south central Kansas with favorable
vertical shear profiles, not to mention a left exit region to the
upper level jet setting up across central Kansas through early
this evening. As a result, thunderstorm development is expected
in the vicinity of the dryline late this afternoon with westward
development possible across south central Kansas throughout the
evening hours. Very large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary threat, however, tornadoes are possible with the strongest
storms.

Much cooler temperatures can be expected for lows tonight, at least
across west central and portions of southwest Kansas, as the
aforementioned cold front begins to push through western Kansas late
tonight. Colder air will spill into extreme western Kansas toward
daybreak Wednesday with the 0C H85 isotherm dropping as far south as
northwest Kansas. Considering much drier air has already spread across
extreme southwest Kansas, look for lows down into the 30s(F) across
west central Kansas to the 40s(F) and possibly the 50s(F) southeast
toward south central Kansas. The colder air will continue to filter
southward into western Kansas Wednesday lowering H85 temperatures
below 10C across central Kansas to near 15C in extreme southwest
Kansas. Depending on lingering cloud cover, highs may struggle to
reach the 60s(F) in central Kansas with 60s(F) more likely further
southwest. Highs in the lower 70s(F) are still possible closer to
the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Much of Wednesday into early Thursday night should be quiet across
western Kansas as the upper low moves northeast of the region and
a shortwave ridge moves over the central Plains. The models
continue to show another upper level trough digging into the Great
Basin and closing off before moving out over the central High
Plains Friday night. Low level moist return flow will begin across
the southern Plains and into the central Plains by Thursday night.

While the atmosphere will not be nearly as unstable over the region
as it will be today, we should see widespread showers and thunderstorms
developing late Thursday night and spreading northeast through western
Kansas on Friday into Friday night, providing another round of
beneficial rain to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across
central Kansas and possibly as far west as eastern portions of
southwest Kansas late this afternoon, then continuing through
this evening. As a result, periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will be
possible in the vicinity of KHYS and potentially as far west as
KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected at all TAF sites
through late this evening. Light and variable winds will persist
across southwest and portions of central Kansas behind an
eastward advancing dryline through early this evening. Variable
gusty winds are then possible mid to late evening from thunderstorm
generated outflow boundaries. Winds are then expected to turn
north-northwesterly 15 to 25kt generally after 06Z as a cold
front begins to push through western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  45  65  41 /  10  10  20   0
GCK  77  43  65  38 /  10  10  20   0
EHA  74  42  65  38 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  79  43  65  40 /  10  10  10   0
HYS  78  46  63  38 /  40  50  30   0
P28  83  52  72  45 /  30  50  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson



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