Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301916
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
216 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A low pressure surface trough will continue into the lee of the
Rockies tonight with light moist upslope winds of 5 to 10 mph. With
the light upslope and clear skies, there could be some patchy dense
fog or at least ground fog generally east of Garden City from
around 4 am till 9 am CDT. The only model to suggest this is the
SREF. Overnight lows with clear skies look to be in the low to mid
60s.

For Monday, a weak trough will push towards western Kansas with
light southeast winds becoming light south. Some cirrus high level
cloudiness may increase across far western Kansas late. Highs
will be in the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ECMWF continues to trend less impressive with storm chances for
the first half of the extended. An upper level ridge along with
downslope low level southwesterly winds will lead to hot
temperatures with values well into the 90s. There might be a
slight chance of storms along the Colorado border Monday night,
however, chances are dwindling with neutral mid level height
rises. Wednesday could be hottest as winds are most downslope and
25-30C 850 temperatures are forecast. More of the same continues
for the rest of the week with broad southwesterly upper level flow
and low level troughing. Confidence is any model solution drops
off significantly towards the end of the period but the overall
synoptic pattern suggests hot.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Light upslope winds and clear skies could give way to areas of
light ground fog after 09Z to around 14Z, otherwise expect VFR
conditions to persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  62  96  66  94 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  64  96  65  93 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  64  97  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  62  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
P28  66  96  70  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Kruse


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