Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 150759
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
259 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

...Updated short term and fire weather sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

The upper level ridge axis across the West and adjacent Rockies will
rapidly approach the Great Plains and flatten out by midday with
zonal northwesterly flow aloft becoming dominant across much of the
northwestern half of the CONUS. This will support fairly robust lee
trough development from Montana south into eastern Colorado. The
MSLP gradient will increase, as a result, with surface winds picking
up out of the south/southwest by midday. Temperatures will rebound
nicely as the 900-800mb downslope continues through the day warming
the temperatures in this layer.  We should see highs easily reach
upper 60s for far southwest KS and mid 60s elsewhere.  A shortwave
trough within the northwest flow aloft will move into the Northern
Rockies tonight, helping sustain the deep lee trough as it pushes
east into the southern Dakotas and Nebraska. The gradient across
southwestern Kansas will remain strong enough to keep winds up in
the 14 to 17 knot range much of the night.  By daybreak Wednesday,
the center of the trough axis will likely be over far west-central
KS and southwest Kansas with winds diminishing.  This would support
temperatures falling into the 35 to 39F range out west with lows a
bit warmer farther east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A progressive upper level shortwave trough moves across the Central
Plains on Thursday from the Intermountain West on Wednesday. This
system will push a cold front across western Kansas late on
Wednesday. Wednesday highs will rise into the 60s with lows in the
mid to upper 30s on Thursday morning.

The upper trough, for Thursday, is forecast to be deeper and wetter
according to the GFS model than the new ECMWF. Model Ensemble QPF`s
are all over the place with snow amounts ranging from over 6 inches
to less than 2 inches across western Kansas. Current thoughts, with
this progressive open wave, are possibly 2 to 4 inches with the
highest amounts north, but this is very speculative at this time.
Current National Guidance is showing about 2 inches. Parts of south
central Kansas may not see much of any snow accumulations with
warmer temperatures. High temps during the day on Thursday will also
be tricky with lots of rain and snow and cloudy skies. Current
thoughts are early morning highs in the mid 30s will fall slowly to
around 30 to 32 into the afternoon with a non-diurnal temperature
trend. Warmer temperatures are forecast for part of south central
Kansas with highs in the 40s. North winds of 15 to 25 mph can be
expected. Lows on Friday morning could be in the mid to upper 20s.

For the period from Friday into next Monday, a warming trend will
ensue with highs warming from the 50s on Friday to the 70s on the
Weekend into Monday. Lows warm from the 40s to around 50. A southern
branch disturbance may bring only a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday night into Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Tranquil aviation weather will prevail through the night and into
the day Tuesday as upper level high pressure ridging influences the
region. Light winds at 6 knots or less tonight will give way to a
southwest wind Tuesday as a lee trough develops across eastern
Colorado. Wind speeds will peak around 20 knots sustained from
midday through late afternoon with gusts to around 30 knots at
times. VFR will prevail under sky clear conditions.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast across far southwest
Kansas today as southwest winds pick up to around 15 to 20 mph. With
temperatures warming into the upper 60s by late afternoon and a
dewpoint around 20, relative humidity will fall to around 15 to 20
percent. We collaborated potential for a Red Flag Warning (RFW) with
the AMA office, but we decided to hold off on issuance of a RFW for
far southwest Kansas given the low confidence in less than 15
percent RH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  39  68  37 /   0   0   0  60
GCK  66  37  64  36 /   0   0   0  60
EHA  68  39  65  37 /   0   0   0  60
LBL  67  37  67  39 /   0   0   0  60
HYS  66  40  67  36 /   0   0   0  60
P28  64  40  73  44 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid






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