Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271857
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
157 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS TODAY, THEN MOVES EAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS, SHIFTING ABRUPTLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND
INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH. COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SLACKEN IN THE AFTERNOON A BIT TO 15 TO 25 MPH.
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVES IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BUT MID
LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LACKING FOR ANY RAINFALL. HIGHS
TODAY, WITH GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION, WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY AND IN THE UPPER 60S. THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA WILL BE LAST
TO SEE THE COLD FRONT BY AROUND NOON, WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 70S.

TONIGHT, MID CLOUDS THICKEN WITH SOME STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
MOVING FROM FAR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THEN ACROSS THE REST OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE
THAT ONLY SOME VIRGA WILL FALL WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND WITH THE STRONG
MID LEVEL FORCING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
WITH THE COLDEST IN THE FAR WEST CENTRAL AREAS FROM SCOTT CITY TO
JOHNSON CITY AND WEST. THE WINDS WILL COME DOWN TO AROUND 8 TO 10
MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST. CURRENT THOUGHTS, WITH THE GOOD MID LEVEL
CLOUD LAYER AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS, ARE THAT FREEZING CONDITIONS
ARE NOT LIKELY. WILL HOWEVER KEEP A MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN
THE FORECAST TO COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
OVER THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED ABOVE THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE
WESTERN KANSAS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS OVER CWA. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE
NORTH WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY THEN NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. LEE TROUGHING
WILL DEVELOP AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS
LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

NORTH WINDS AT 15 KTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL SUBSIDE TO
5 TO 10 KTS BY 00Z. THEREAFTER THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA070.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  65  39  70 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  36  64  37  70 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  37  63  40  70 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  37  66  39  71 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  36  64  36  69 /  10   0   0   0
P28  42  67  39  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...FINCH



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