Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241953
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
253 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Updated for the long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface winds will shift from an easterly trajectory to a southerly
direction today. This will be in response to surface pressure falls
across the northern High Plains region. Models such as the NAM
indicate a diffuse dryline developing eastward in the afternoon with
dew points falling into the 50`s to a Dighton and Liberal line, or
perhaps even slightly farther east. With drier air in the western
sections, more efficient heating should occur behind the dryline
in turn supporting the warmer model solutions with temperatures
around 100 degrees. Higher moisture in central Kansas may limit
the maximum temperatures to the mid or even lower 90s this
afternoon. As a result the bias corrected NAM temperatures were
fused into this short term forecast. The NAMs warmer overnight lows
for tonight additionally were favored for the warmer lows across
much of southwest Kansas into Friday morning.

Convection appears unlikely this afternoon. A general lack of a
sharp dryline, and homogeneous southerly flow with impressively
warm air in the mid levels should inhibit deep moist convection.
The best chance for a storm would be isolated weakly forced
surface based storms that might approach extreme west central
Kansas in the evening from the higher terrain of Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Saturday night will still be warm as the southerly flow will exist
across our southern zones, and an east flow at the surface will
exist across the northern half.  Saturday afternoon surface
temperatures will rise to the 100F degree mark in the Hays to
Syracuse areas, the 101 to 102F range in the Larned to Dodge City to
Elkhart areas, and the 102 to 103F range in the Liberal to
Medicine Lodge areas.  A lee side trough is sure to form and move
into extreme western Kansas during Saturday afternoon. There will
be 20 percent chances for thunderstorms in our western 1 tier of
counties next to the Colorado border Saturday afternoon and evening.
Overnight Saturday night, the surface trough will get pushed a
little farther east, and an upper level wave will swoop through in
the northwest flow aloft. Pops in the west along the Colorado
border will increase to 30 to 40 percent Saturday night, with
lower 20 percent Pops in our eastern counties.  With clouds and
precipitation around, highs on Sunday will lower into the 90s, with near
90F degrees in the I-70 corridor, and perhaps mid 90s in the
Coldwater and Pratt areas.  Sunday should still be warm enough at
the surface to generate some scattered storms, especially in the
west near Syracuse and Elkhart, close to the surface trough.

On Monday, the upper high pressure will be over west Texas, with a
well established northwest flow aloft across the plains.  A warm
front will nudge north into our southwestern counties, and there
will be 20 to 30 percent chances for afternoon thunderstorms Monday.
Monday should start a cooling trend, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.  Tuesday will see another weak cold front come south
through the western plains, and highs on Tuesday should only reach
near 81F degrees in our north and range to the 87F degrees in the
Elkhart area.  Wednesday may the coolest day of the week, as the
cold air mass will be sinking south through the plains. A
whopping 81F degrees is forecast a high on Wednesday for Dodge
City!  The upper high pressure will begin building back to the
northeast on Thursday, and another warm up may show a short lived
presence.

Minimum temperatures will go through a similar cool down, but
generally be in the mid 60s through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A surface trough will remain across western Kansas through the
period with drier air at lower levels. Winds will be from the south
at 15 kts, then gradually shifting to the southwest by 12z. VFR
conditions will prevail as low CIGS are not expected in this drier
airmass.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76 101  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  75 103  71 100 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  72 102  71 100 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  74 102  72 102 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  78 104  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  75 103  75 102 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Finch





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