Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 110925
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
325 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

...Updated short term, long term and fire weather discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Satellite imagery is showing a rather vigorous shortwave trough
diving south out of southern Canada into the northern Plains and
upper Midwest early this morning. An associated low pressure
system at the surface was moving into northwest Minnesota with an
increasing pressure gradient across the northern High Plains to
the west of the low. This system will track southeast into the
lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region by this evening. A cold front
will be moving south across western Kansas by around sunrise with
northwesterly winds and weak cold air advection increasing behind
the front. The northwesterly component to the winds will result in
downslope warming which will offset the colder air somewhat. Short
term model solutions and MOS guidance vary somewhat to how warm it
will be today but it still appears we should see highs in the
upper 50s to low/mid 60s. Sustained winds at 20-25 mph will be
likely across the area today with stronger winds around 25-30 mph
possible in the Hays area.

Winds will diminish to at or below 10 mph this evening although
locations in central Kansas, closer to the stronger gradient, could
see winds stay up for a bit early this evening. Surface high pressure
builds south through western Kansas overnight with winds becoming
light westerly later tonight. The light winds and clear skies
should result in overnight lows falling into the low/mid 20s,
generally around or a few degrees below the cooler MOS guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The highly amplified ridge/trough upper flow pattern over North
America will continue before breaking down somewhat late in the
week as the upper level high pressure along the West Coast
retrogrades into the eastern Pacific. In the meantime, there will
be a couple more shortwave troughs dropping southward into the
Plains and Midwest around Wednesday and Thursday. These systems
will bring a stronger surge of cold air south into the central
Plains. Highs on Thursday may only reach around 50 degrees, give
or take. The GFS and ECMWF bot indicate a deeper wave moving south
through the central CONUS on Thursday and develop some light
precipitation in the low level upslope regions along the Front
Range and possibly over central and eastern Kansas. There will not
be any significant antecedent moisture for this system to work
with so am not holding out much hope for measurable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A surface trough
will move through the central High Plains switching winds from the
west to northwest by Monday morning. Winds will increase from the
northwest and then north during the day as a cold front pushes
through. Strongest winds will be in the Hays area where gusts to
35-40 knots will be possible with somewhat weaker but still gusty
winds across southwest Kansas. Winds will be diminishing to
around 10 knots or less after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop today across
central and western Kansas. A fairly dry airmass in currently in
place across central and western Kansas with dewpoints in the single
digits. Dewpoints should come up somewhat behind a cold front this
morning but only up into the low/mid teens. Temperatures are still
expected to rise into the upper 50s and low 60s behind the front.
This should allow humidity levels to fall to around 15 percent. There
is some uncertainty regarding Red Flag potential in central Kansas
around Hays where critical relative humidity conditions may struggle
to be met and for a long enough time but it will be close. After
coordinating with surrounding offices, will convert the Fire Weather
Watch over central and south central Kansas to a Red Flag Warning
with the remainder of the southwest Kansas counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  23  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  59  22  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  61  25  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  23  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  58  25  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
P28  63  27  56  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ this morning to 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-
074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard



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