Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 050720
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTED ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DOES MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 AT GARDEN CITY TO
NEAR 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
20 MPH TO THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
WIND SHEAR WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION, SO SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT GREAT.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY, AND ONLY AROUND 80
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AND INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE STORMS WILL BE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF SOME
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER FLOW.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
COOLEST WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS FROM 58 TO 62
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONGOING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR EVEN SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON RADAR
AT 05Z WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND BUT EVEN IN DOING THIS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT GCK, DDC OR HYS IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. GIVEN
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL HOWEVER INSERT A PERIOD OF VCTS IN
THE GCK TAFS THROUGH 08Z. AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT VCTS FROM 08Z
TO 11Z. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  10  30  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  30  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  10  40  60  30
P28  97  74  89  66 /  20  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT



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