Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 010627
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
127 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

The upper level ridge across the Southern Rockies and Central
Plains will slowly shift eastward Tuesday through Thursday as a
strong upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest. This low
then travels eastward across the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains this weekend into the beginning of next week. As for the
forecast, the atmosphere over western Kansas looks nearly
saturated with increasing cloudiness as the evening progresses. A
few thunderstorms may be possible across west central and central
Kansas around midnight as another weak shortwave passes through
the area. This activity should end by sunrise Wednesday. Drier air
then moves into the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing partly
cloudy skies and dry conditions. Winds will generally be from a
southerly direction through at least Thursday as lee troughing
continues across eastern Colorado. Thunderstorm chances then
slowly increase Friday into this weekend as the aforementioned
upper level low moves across the northern United States. The best
chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday into Monday as models
suggest a cold front moving through the area. Otherwise expect
partly cloudy skies. As for temperatures, highs in the upper 90s
are forecasted Wednesday and Thursday then in the lower 90s
Thursday through Sunday. Lows look to range from the lower 60s
across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across central and
south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Mainly a VFR flight category forecast this time around, with only a
few isolated showers moving across the area this morning. The
prevailing surface winds will be more southerly and a little
stronger than yesterday, and as a result, providuing just enough
mixing to, in addtion to invading mid lvel cloudiness, prevent
radiation fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  70  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  94  68  96  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  93  67  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  95  69  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  95  71  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
P28  95  72  95  72 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell



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