Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 300746
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
UTAH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MID DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY ALONG AND EAST
OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO
MEADE. EAST OF THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG, AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z
TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE
TODAY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN
HAZARD AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55
DEGREE RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY
PATCH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS, HRRR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CLOUD BASED MAY
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, NAM, AND RAP THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, DDC BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z, AND HYS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THESE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
IN THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HAYS AND
DODGE CITY AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  57  81  54 /  20  20  20  30
GCK  82  54  79  51 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  80  51  79  50 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  84  53  81  53 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  81  58  78  53 /  30  20  30  50
P28  85  62  86  60 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT



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