Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 041746
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Mid to upper level moisture will be on the increase this evening
into the overnight period leading to increased cloudiness,
especially across western and west central Kansas. A weak
shortwave looks to move through Colorado this evening and trigger
a few thunderstorms across eastern Colorado. Most likely these
storms will stay out of our CWA but have placed a slight chance
across Hamilton county. Partly cloudy skies are anticipated
tomorrow with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the late
afternoon across west central Kansas. Southerly winds are expected
to continue through tomorrow as lee troughing continues to be
positioned across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight are anticipated to range from the mid 60s across west
central Kansas to lower 70s across south central Kansas.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Saturday and Sunday will be similar to today, with continued
very small chances for late day high-based thunderstorms. We opted
to carry dry thunder in the grids with any pop over 8% through
Sunday. There is a little better chances for thunderstorms from
Sunday night into early to mid next week due to the stalled out
frontal boundary and increasing low level moisture. There is a
chance that some of these storms could be severe given the
increasing mid to high level winds and increasing surface based
CAPE values. Highs will continue to be hot through Sunday ahead of
the front and even on Monday as the front stalls. Another upper
level trough will pass across the northern plains by Tuesday and
this may shunt the front father south. Before the front moves too
far south, thunderstorms will be possible into Tuesday night along
and even on the cool side of the front. Highs should drop into the
80s to lower 90s by Tuesday and 80s on Wednesday, There is some
uncertainty by late Wednesday and Thursday as to precipitation
chances as the mid to high level flow becomes more northwesterly,
with weak embedded shortwave troughs that could result in showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with increasing high level
clouds. Winds will generally be from the south around 20 knots
with higher gusts this afternoon decreasing to around 14 knots
this evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  70  98  73 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  98  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  97  68  96  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  68  96  71 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  99  72  99  74 /   0  10  10  10
P28  98  72  96  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Hovorka_42


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