Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230602
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
102 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
MODESTLY STRONG, A LOWER LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGING ALOFT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE NAM/GFS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
MID TEENS(C). HOWEVER, LINGERING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING MAY HINDER
CLIMBING TEMPERATURES INITIALLY WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F)
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT, LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL REDEVELOP
QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING ABOUT A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 50S(F) FOR THE MOST PART
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TEXAS REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD  ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH TIME. A FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS (WESTERN KS, EASTERN
CO). BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL WITH INCREASED SURFACE DEW POINTS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN OPPORTUNITY FOR EITHER RADIATION OR
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT
THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES ONLY LOW PROBABILITY. ANOTHER
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES A PVA ANOMALY
DIGGING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD FOR PRECIPITATION  ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.  IN THE MEANTIME, WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FRIDAY, AND LOW
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL  PASSAGE WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG BY DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES TOWARD SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TOWARD SUNRISE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  54  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  51  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  77  52  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  77  52  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  75  53  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
P28  78  55  86  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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