Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
329 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...Updated short and long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Upper air analysis showed a strong upper level jet extending from
the eastern Pacific into the central High Plains this afternoon. A
weak shortwave/vort max was moving through northeast Colorado this
afternoon on the cyclonic side of the upper jet. At the surface,
a low pressure trough had moved out into central and southwest Kansas
today. Short range models show the shortwave trough moving northeast
tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late this
afternoon over eastern Colorado will move across northwest Kansas
into Nebraska later tonight with the shortwave. This activity should
stay north of the Dodge City forecast area tonight.

On Tuesday, a surface low moves east through the central High
Plains. A cold front will drop south across southwest and central
Kansas behind the low and will be moving through the Medicine
Lodge area by mid afternoon. This front should be clearing south
central Kansas during the afternoon but there could be a small
window of opportunity for some thunderstorms to develop along the
front over the far southeast counties. The atmosphere is not
overly unstable over the area tomorrow afternoon but 0-6km shear
is pushing 60-70 knots. Depending on how much low level mixing we
can get immediately behind the front, there could be a narrow
window of opportunity for an isolated marginally severe storm
producing strong winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

On Monday night, another stronger shortwave moves out of the Rockies
into the central and southern Plains. The mid levels of the atmosphere
moisten up by late afternoon into the evening hours ahead of this
wave. The models generally agree on an area of showers and thunderstorms
developing over southeast Colorado and into southwest Kansas during
the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of the convective allowing
models are hinting at updraft helicity swaths with a few of the storms.
Models may be picking up on the strong shear aloft but think that
the severe potential should diminish as CAPE values drop significantly
farther behind the front. Precipitation chances could linger into
Wednesday over south central Kansas before the upper wave moves
east of the area.

Wednesday into Thursday should be relatively quiet as weak shortwave
ridging moves over the central High Plains. Another shortwave trough
will be diving out of the central Rockies toward the central High
Plains on Thursday. Ahead of this wave, the surface front lifts
back north into western Kansas. Model soundings from the GFS show
another window of opportunity for a few severe storms along a Dighton-
Garden City-Dodge City-Ashland corridor as MUCAPE increases to near
1000 j/kg and shear values are around 50 kts. There could be some
fire weather issues over far southwest Kansas where deep layer
mixing and a dry airmass exist to the west of the front.

The next and strongest storm system develops toward the weekend as
an upper level low develops over the Four Corners region late Friday
night and then lifts to the east northeast into the weekend. The
models show some cold air pushing into far western Kansas on Saturday
into Saturday night. This could result in a rain/snow mix or a
changeover to snow over western portions of Kansas Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night before the precipitation ends.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

A low pressure trough moving through west central and southwest Kansas
will bring northwesterly winds to the Garden City and Liberal terminals
this afternoon with winds becoming southwesterly at Hays. Winds at
all terminals will become southerly to southeasterly overnight. Low
level wind shear is expected to develop for a few hours overnight at
Dodge City but should stay east/southeast of the remainder of the terminals.
A cold front will push through the area late tonight and Tuesday morning.
This will bring northerly winds back to the area along with a period
of MVFR/IFR cigs to Hays.


DDC  85  51  73  39 /   0   0  20  60
GCK  84  49  70  38 /   0   0  30  70
EHA  89  52  71  39 /   0   0  40  70
LBL  91  52  75  40 /   0   0  30  60
HYS  83  51  65  39 /   0  10  20  50
P28  81  56  78  44 /   0   0  10  50




LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.