Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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025
FXUS63 KDDC 250625
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
125 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Focus in the short term is severe weather tonight. Satellite shows cumulus
across southwest Kansas. Sfc analysis shows an old outflow boundary
moving north across the forecast district and a dryline farther to the
southwest. We launched at 19Z special sounding. There is plenty of SBCAPE
with values over 4000 J/kg. The sounding did show a significant cap
in place, but this should erode over time with continued sfc heating.
Wind shear is supportive for supercells with 38 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear
and 21 kt of 0-1 km shear for tornadoes. The 12Z 4 km NAM showed intense
supercells across southwest Kansas with significant updraft helicity.
The HRRR is showing the same thing, although differs in location of
the storms. Convection should form along the boundary across southwest
Kansas (probably from Garden City down to Meade) and then move to the
east through this evening. Threats will include tornadoes (some of which
could be strong), giant hail of 3-4", and outflow winds as the system
could form into a line later on in the evening. The central zones are
most under the gun as far as severe weather is concerned.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

The next chance for storms in on Thursday as a wave moves out. Severe
weather is possible once again during the afternoon and evening. The
best chance of storms will be across the eastern zones. Beyond this
we may see another chance of storms next weekend. Temperatures through
the extended period will be on the warm to near normal side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

An outflow boundary from the large convective cluster in central
and eastern Kansas extended from west central Kansas into
northwest Oklahoma at 06Z, and widespread ceilings near 025 can be
expected through at least 08Z. As the outflow erodes later
tonight. flow above the boundary layer will become southwest in
response to falling pressures in the northern plains, and the
stratus should erode before sunrise. Southwest low level winds
around 10 kts will prevail during the daylight hours, and dry air
is likely to spread across all of southwest Kansas. A few cumulus
clouds with bases near 060 should form in the afternoon,
especially near HYS. Thunderstorms today should remain east of the
TAF sites.

Low level dry air will persist Wednesday night at TAF sites,
although low level moisture will spread back west quickly on
Thursday. VFR conditions are expected through at least Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  89  57  87 /  70   0   0  20
GCK  58  90  52  87 /  40   0   0  20
EHA  53  90  52  86 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  56  91  54  89 /  20   0   0  10
HYS  56  87  57  85 /  70   0   0  50
P28  65  90  66  88 /  70   0   0  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Ruthi



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