Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231156
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
656 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

A scattered to broken band of showers and a few thunderstorms
persisted across central into southwest Kansas early this morning.
This area of precipitation appears to be developing along a weak mid
level shortwave trough and is being aided by upward vertical motion
associated with the right entrance region of an upper level jet.
Satellite and radar trends show this area of precipitation gradually
diminishing with time. Most model solutions show the precipitation
dissipating or moving south of southwest Kansas by sunrise. There
could be some lingering showers or isolated thunderstorms in south
central Kansas during the morning hours before the trough axis
clears that area. Given the aforementioned trends, think that
chances for additional precipitation through the rest of today
are fairly slim given how far south of the area that the cold
front has moved. Some of the models suggest that a few showers or
thunderstorms could redevelop along the Oklahoma border this
evening especially toward south central Kansas. Will maintain some
slight chance pops this evening for that possibility but am not
overly confident anything will develop. Behind the front, daytime
temperatures will be some 10-15 degrees cooler across the forecast
area today compared to Saturday. Tonight will be fairly pleasant
with light winds and low temperatures generally in the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

A fairly active flow pattern will persist through the extended
period. The axis of the mid/upper level high pressure will persist
more or less from the Great Basin across Oklahoma into the
southeastern states while the strongest westerly flow aloft will
continue along the Canadian border into the Great Lakes region.
Another closed upper level low pressure system is progged to move
east across south central Canada around Tuesday and Wednesday with
the southern end of an associated upper trough brushing through
Nebraska late Wednesday. This will push another cold front south
into Kansas on Wednesday and into Oklahoma and west Texas on
Thursday. The latest FB output produces 40-50 percent pops along
the front by Wednesday evening which is reasonable given the
amount of low level moisture across the area ahead of the front.
Deep layer shear is fairly weak although there will be moderate
instability in place. There could be a few isolated severe storms
with damaging winds being the main threat but more likely, there
will be an increased potential for flooding given the slow moving
nature of any storms that develop.

The latter part of the week and next weekend will see the upper
level high pressure retrograding into the western states with near
meridional flow over the central Plains. Thursday into Saturday
will be fairly cool by July standards. The going forecast has
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s which may be too warm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

VFR conditions can be expected through tonight at all TAF
locations. Visibilities may be restricted briefly to less than
three miles in mist around sunrise Monday.

A weak mid level trough extending from western Missouri to the
Texas Panhandle will provide sufficient lift to support a few
showers and thunderstorms in central and south central Kansas
early today. At the surface, a weak cold front that extended from
southwest Missouri across northern Oklahoma to the northern Texas
Panhandle will move into central Oklahoma before becoming
stationary later today. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to
develop this afternoon near the front but will remain mostly south
of the Oklahoma border.

An area of stratus and fog in northern Kansas near HLC will
dissipate by mid morning and should remain north of Hays.
Scattered clouds near 120 and near 250 gradually will propagate
south, and skies will become mostly clear by late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  66  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  90  64  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  90  65  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  92  66  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  92  66  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  94  70  96  72 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Ruthi


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