Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 310815
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
315 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated term of short and term of long...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Morning concern is fog again. Currently, the lowest temp/dew depressions
are located across Stafford to Barber counties. From this and models,
this is where the more dense fog is possible. Watching trends of a dense
fog advisory, but currently do not have any headlines out. To the west
towards Dodge City, there would be patchy fog as well. Otherwise, highs
should warm to the mid 90s. There is still the question if smoke will
have deleterious impacts from temperatures reaching their maximum potential.
This has been the case over the last few days and was considered. The
ARW develops convection across eastern Colorado this evening and moves
said activity closer the Kansas border. Have slight pops in this region.
Other models are dry. With the mid level height axis along the forecast
area, not sure if there will even be much in the way of propagation
of Colorado thunderstorm activity into the Sunflower state. The slight
pops covers the situation for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Forecast issue is br/fg again for the morning. Models trending farther
east with the most reduced visibilities. IFR conditions for KDDC, and
MVFR for KHYS. KGCK should be VFR. Improvement back to VFR around 14Z-
15Z. Will watch and amend if lower flight conditions develop.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  67  94  70 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  94  64  93  68 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  95  66  93  67 /  10  20  10  20
LBL  96  67  95  69 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  95  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  20
P28  95  70  96  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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