Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 182306
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
506 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Strong shortwave exiting eastward through Kansas at midday, with
strong subsidence and drying across SW KS. Pressure gradient has
supported NW wind gusts as high as 50 mph this morning. NW winds
will rapidly weaken after 3 pm, as incoming surface high pressure
settles over SW KS by sunset. Even with full sunshine this
afternoon, 850 mb temperatures will only support lower to mid 50s.

Tonight...Clear and seasonably cold. Surface high pressure will
strengthen further to near 1030 mb as it sinks southward into
west Texas tonight. A light SW wind of 10 mph or less will
prevail. Strong radiational cooling in a dry airmass will easily
allow for temperatures to fall into the mid 20s at sunrise Sunday,
but the weak downslope component should keep most locations out of
the teens.

Sunday...Sunny, windy and warmer. Surface high moves to near the
Arklatex by 6 pm, allowing return flow to establish quickly.
Pressure gradient will support an average windy day for SW KS,
with SW winds averaging 20-30 mph. A modest warming at 850 mb to
near 8C and good downslope components (along with full sun and dry
ground) will allow for most locations to reach the lower to
perhaps mid 60s. Increasing cirrus is expected by afternoon which
will cap temperatures to some extent.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Extremely quiet and completely dry weather will continue through
Thanksgiving and beyond. Medium range models show no hints of any
pattern changes, with a polar vortex finding a home near Hudson
Bay and eastern Canada, while a strong upper ridge remains
stagnant over the eastern Pacific near Baja California. At noon on
Thanksgiving Day, 12z ECMWF depicts a deep cold 500 dm low at
Hudson Bay, and an impressive 595 dm ridge near San Diego. Until
this synoptic pattern can break down, we will not see meaningful
rain or snow in SW Kansas under the benign dry NW flow. So, the
forecast is reduced to minor dry cold fronts, wind shifts, periods
of cirrus and temperature fluctuations.

Monday will be warmer, well into the 60s. The next dry cold front
looks quite wimpy on the latest model runs (much weaker than this
morning`s), so north winds and only back to the 50s Tuesday.
A warming trend is expected Wednesday through Friday, with the
shopping day Black Friday expected to be the warmest day, near 70.
The next cold front Friday night into Saturday appears to have
some more teeth to it (stronger north winds, maybe a passing
sprinkle) but still nothing of any consequence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 505 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

North winds at less than 10 knots will slowly back to the
southwest overnight as an area of high pressure at the surface
moves from western Kansas into into Oklahoma. The light southwest
winds will then increase during the afternoon into the 15 to near
20 knot range. Model soundings indicating VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  26  62  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  25  62  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  29  60  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  25  62  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  24  60  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  60  33  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert



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