Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 081604
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1004 AM CST Sun Dec 8 2013
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013
Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper
level shortwave ejecting eastward out of the southern Rockies.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper level impulse is dropping southward
across the northern Rockies of Idaho and western Montana. Near the
surface, an area of low pressure is pushing southeast across
southern Colorado. Some low level moisture has moved back north
into western Kansas with surface dewpoints up into the lower to
mid teens(F) across the area.
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 151 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013
s a cold surface high pressure ridge remains east of our forecast
area today, a weak low pressure area over central Colorado will work
southeast and be over far southwest Kansas by this afternoon. This
will bring some overrunning conditions to our eastern forecast
areas, basically east of highway 283. There will be low end 20
percent chances for light snow until about 20z or so east of highway
snow accumulations will be very light, generally under a tenth of an
inch. The low clouds in the IFR category will likely break up and
lift late this afternoon, with clouds rising to the bkn-ovc025-030
range. Temperatures will be slow to climb and maximum temperatures
will likely be reached late in the day today. The warmest spots
will be down near Elkhart, with that surface low tracking near
there. In the north, clouds will linger longer and thus Scott City,
Dighton, Ness City and Wakeeney areas should not get out of the
teens today. Winds will start out from the southeast at 12 to 16
mph, then shift from the southwest in the Elkhart and Liberal areas,
to the north in the Syracuse area, and go nearly calm north of
I-70. By 23z this afternoon, all winds should be northerly at 7 to
9 mph, as the surface low moves east to near Tulsa.
Tonight will start out partly to mostly cloudy, but the cold high
pressure from the north will help partially clear clouds out north
of highway 50. Considering the cloud cover difference, minimum
temperatures will vary from near 1F degree in the Syracuse, Lakin,
Scott City and Dighton areas, to around 10F degrees down along the
Oklahoma border from Meade eastward to Medicine Lodge. The light
northerly surface flow will continue tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013
A 150 kt 250 hPa jet will traverse across Kansas Monday with the right
entrance region moving across the region and creating some synoptic
lift. Light snow showers will be possible mainly across the southern
row of counties in association with the jet and weak 700 hPa omega/low
level baroclinic boundary. Not expecting any significant accumulations
as the atmosphere is dry near the sfc. Maximums expected in the teens
and 20s F.
Tuesday and beyond:
Tuesday looks to be the first day of above freezing temperatures in
a while as weak downslope westerly flow develops across the region along
with a weak 850 hPa downslope/warm plume. This warm up will be short
lived as another front traverses across Kansas Wednesday, resulting
in subfreezing maximum temperatures again. The rest of the period features
split flow aloft, dry conditions, and moderating temperatures.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013
MVFR cigs will become VFR by this afternoon. SE veering NW 8-15 kt.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 22 6 19 5 / 10 0 10 0
GCK 20 4 19 4 / 10 0 10 0
EHA 33 6 18 6 / 10 0 20 0
LBL 30 6 21 5 / 10 0 20 0
HYS 20 5 18 7 / 30 0 0 0
P28 25 11 23 10 / 10 0 20 0