Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221744
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1244 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

A strong subtropical high was centered over northwest Oklahoma
this morning with H5 temperatures aoa -4C covering much of Texas
and Oklahoma. Somewhat cooler temperatures at H5 prevailed in the
Central Plains with considerable mid level instability. A plume of
rich high level moisture originating in the deep tropics extended
from northwest Mexico across Arizona and Colorado into the Central
Plains this morning. A subtle trough embedded in the weak flow was
centered in northwest Kansas at mid morning. The morning raobs
suggested this feature with a light east H7 wind at LBF. With the
strong mid level instability, a persistent cluster of high based
thunderstorms still was in progress at 16Z with a few towers
building in north central Kansas. There is uncertainty about how
this high based convection will evolve in the weakly forced
summertime environment with H7 temperatures around +15C covering
much of the central part of the country. A weak surface cyclone
was centered in northeast Nebraska with a trough extending into
southeast Colorado. Southwest low level flow with dewpoints in the
lower 60s prevailed across much of southwest Kansas by 16Z, while
very rich low level moisture with dewpoints in the mid 70s were
evident north of the boundary in Nebraska.

A vigorous upper level trough was moving across the Pacific
Northwest this morning and should reach the Northern Plains by
Saturday afternoon. Several minor vorticity maxima were evident in
satellite imagery along a shear axis extending from northeast
Wyoming to southern California.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

The HRRR for several runs has been insistent on developing a
strong cold pool with outflow spreading southeast across western
and central Kansas, but the HRRR likely is being far too
aggressive (as usual) with outflow. Model soundings are largely
uncapped by late afternoon, and a few surface based thunderstorms
may develop along the surface trough line from north central into
southwest Kansas. With high dewpoint depressions, there will be
some potential for microbursts. The thunderstorms along the trough
line most likely will dissipate before midnight.

As the Pacific Northwest upper level trough progresses across the
northern United States, a Pacific cold front will move into the
central part of the country Saturday. The front will enter
northwest Kansas and should extend from eastern Iowa across north
central Kansas to southeast Colorado by Sunday morning. A second
minor upper level trough that was near the British Columbia coast
early today will reach the Northern Plains Sunday and reinforce
the weak Pacific cold front Sunday. The front most likely will
advance to near the Oklahoma border by Monday morning.

A few high based thunderstorms may develop near the front
Saturday afternoon, but the plume of exceedingly warm mid level
temperatures over the frontal zone will keep coverage minimal.
Once again, anything that forms will have the potential for
production of high winds with very high downdraft CAPE values.
Chances for more widespread thunderstorms are better Sunday night.

Guidance has been a few degrees too high on maximum temperatures
in southwest Kansas the past few days, most likely as a result of
anomalously high evapotranspiration. This trend is likely to
continue today, and maximum temperatures were adjusted down a bit
in areas that received the most rainfall in the past week. Heat
advisory criteria were not met for any station Thursday, and it is
not at all certain that advisory criteria will be met today. The
GFS looks considerably too warm again Saturday, but it is likely
that temperatures will be two or three degrees warmer than today
in most areas with downslope southwest low level flow and slightly
warmer H8 temperatures. It is possible that heat advisory criteria
will be met briefly at a few stations Saturday afternoon, so an
advisory will be issued for Saturday in order to make a pretty
picture with neighboring sites.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Thunderstorms generally have a better chance of occurrence each day
going forward, as the atmosphere become less stable in the mid
levels and the 700 mb hot ridge begins to weaken. Temperatures are
forecast by the models to return closer to the normal mid summer
highs and lows, bringing slight relief to the hot weather of the
last few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2016

VFR conditions will continue through Saturday. A strong
subtropical high centered over northwest Oklahoma will move little
but will begin to weaken slightly Saturday. A vigorous upper level
trough in the Pacific Northwest will advance into the Dakotas by
Saturday afternoon. At the surface a weak low was in northeast
Nebraska early this afternoon with a trough extending across
northern Kansas into southeast Colorado. A weak mid level area of
low pressure was centered in northwest Kansas.

A feed of rich high level tropical moisture from the Pacific will
support scattered high level cloudiness aoa 250 through Saturday.
Scattered thunderstorms will persist across northwest Kansas into
southern Nebraska this afternoon, and more isolated thunderstorms
are likely to form near the surface trough from northern Kansas
across west central Kansas. Microbursts are possible with any high
based thunderstorm that forms in this environment. The
thunderstorms are likely to weaken to nothing more than sprinkles
by midnight. A few showers are possible late tonight and early
Saturday in west central Kansas under the high level moisture
plume, but these likely will remain west of the terminal
locations.

A weak Pacific cold front will approach northwest Kansas late
Saturday morning and is expected to become stationary from north
central Kansas into southeast Colorado Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 102  75 101  74 /  10  10  20  20
GCK 100  74  99  71 /  20  20  30  30
EHA 102  72 101  71 /  20  20  40  40
LBL 104  71 102  73 /  10  10  30  30
HYS 101  75 101  74 /  20  20  20  30
P28 105  77 103  76 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-044>046-
064>066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ruthi
SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Ruthi


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