Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242358
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
658 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

Near term forecast issues center around convective/severe local storms this
late afternoon and evening. All convective allowing models have been consistent
throughout the day forecasting mid to late afternoon discreet storm development
along the incoming Pacific cold front over the southeast sections of
the DDC CWA. The consensus of environmental storm parameters suggest
large hail(greater than golfball, possible as high as a few
baseballs) and isolated tornadoes are possible within these storm
paths. Beyond the storm chances tonight, light north surface winds
and clearing sky develops after midnight before flip back outof the
southeast and become slightly more breezy for Monday morning. Any
fog or stratus that develops along the moisture gradient around
midnight and after will be quickly eroded away by the invading dry
air over most  of the area. South central Kansas will still be in a
zone of southerly surface winds  and moisture convergence, hence
some fog or stratus could develop and linger there (St
John/Pratt/Greensburg/Colwater/Med Lodge) a little longer into the
10-13Z timeframe. By Monday afternoon the surface flow remains
weakly breezy with generous surface moisture transport (NAM showing
dew points in the 60s as far east as Dodge and Garden by the mid
evening, which will again increase the odds of fog development as
radiational cooling develops along he upslope convergence enhanced
area overnight into Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

Cooler temperatures are forecast in the days 4-7 timeframe. Lows are still forecast
in the 40s, however highs are cooler in the mid 60s, which at this point in the last
week of April is actually climatologically cool. The cooler pattern is in association
with the next synoptic scale feature hading into the late part of the week and weekend
which may bring in additional rounds of severe weather/convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2016

A cold front will pass the TAF sites around 04z, resulting in a
wind shift to the north at 10-13kts. VFR conditions will prevail
with mainly clear skies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  78  53  80 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  46  77  50  77 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  45  79  48  74 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  47  81  50  79 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  48  76  53  78 /   0  10  20  20
P28  58  81  57  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Finch



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