Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 010533
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1233 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW
STAYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 12 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE DEWPOINT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE ELKHART AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN DRIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST
NORTH OF DODGE CITY WITH LESSER CLOUDS WITH AROUND 92. COOLEST
WILL BE FROM ELKHART TO LIBERAL WITH SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS AND IN
THE MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. COULD ALSO HAVE SOME
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG NEAR AND WEST OF DODGE CITY TOWARDS MORNING
WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN INTERACTION BETWEEN MONSOON PERTURBATIONS MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND AN INCOMING SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
JET MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO
SHIFT THE MONSOON CIRCULATION NORTHEASTWARD SOME...ENHANCING THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IT VERY WELL COULD BE
JUST ONE BIG MCS WE SEE OUT OF THIS EVENT, IN WHICH CASE IF THE
ECMWF HAS A HANDLE ON THINGS, WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THAT
WAVE EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK IN, HOWEVER DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
FAIRLY SCANT AND IT WILL NEED TO BE RECHARGED AGAIN BY WAY OF LATE
DAY HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST ECMWF FAVORS RIDGE-
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE UPPER 90S BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TODAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TODAY, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON TO 12-20KT, THEN RELAX AGAIN AFTER
02Z. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AND HAZE NEAR KDDC AND
KGCK FROM 11-14Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66  92  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  67  91  67  92 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  68  92  68  92 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  68  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  92  71  95 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE


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