000
FXUS63 KDDC 202052
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, DAYTIME
HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST OF DODGE CITY TO
THE COLORADO BORDER. THERE WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BEING TIED TO DAYTIME HEATING, THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH AND END THIS EVENING. WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY FALL INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT, WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS.

A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTREMITY OF
THE LARGER TROUGH ON TUESDAY. 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER, SO ONLY SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S BASED ON THE NAM AND ECMWF.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY, AND WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY COLD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE NORTHERN NEVADA BORDER WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING. A
MINOR WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS GYRE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC,
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND A DEEP CYCLONE NEAR THE DATELINE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD HEIGHTS NEAR 150W, AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE NORTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN
CANADA FINALLY WILL EJECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE, AND RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. COOL AIR WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES,
AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MID WEEK. FALLING PRESSURES IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN TO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AND SHOULD REACH
NORTHERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH
ANOTHER CLUSTER FORMING IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN EASTERN
COLORADO. THE COLORADO CLUSTER SHOULD RIPPLE DOWN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ANOTHER CLUSTER PROBABLY WILL FORM A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY THE WARM SHOULD BE NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER, AND VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN KANSAS WILL
SHIFT THE FAVORED AREA FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FARTHER
NORTH.

TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME LESS PROMINENT IN THE INDIAN
OCEAN IN RECENT DAYS, BUT THE ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO THE STRONG HIGH LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM ASIA ACROSS
JAPAN INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC TODAY. THIS STRONG JET WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND APPROACH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS THE JET PROPAGATES THROUGH THE LONG
WAVE AND APPROACHES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARD THE END OF MAY,
ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER MAY EVOLVE. SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THAT FAR IN THE FUTURE.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME HIGH
BASED VIRGA SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS GYRE, BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL TO
NONEXISTENT. AS SUCH, THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS MINIMAL,
AND THE LOW POPS NEAR INTERSTATE 70 WERE REMOVED. WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE QUIET IN WESTERN KANSAS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD CLIP SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN THURSDAY WITH H8 DEWPOINTS
ABOVE 10 C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. PROGRESSION OF THE WARM
FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION, AND POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BY
SATURDAY, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PROGRESS TO NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER, AND MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WILL GENERALLLY PERSIST
AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY AND WILL DIE OFF
AFTER 00Z. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AOA080.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  78  49  81 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  45  75  47  82 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  43  77  48  84 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  46  79  49  84 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  48  74  48  76 /  10  10  10  10
P28  50  78  52  82 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...FINCH