Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 080735
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
235 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

Tonight:

The main focus for tonight is where convection will be located and how
severe. Right now, visible satellite imagery shows some developing cumulus
across the Plains of east-central Colorado. Expect further development
of cumulus into northwest Kansas through the afternoon. This activity
is along a frontal boundary. Convective allowing models break out thunderstorms
this evening with the best chances along the I-70 corridor. Storms may
extend all the way down to Highway 96, though, later tonight. As far
as severity, some of the models want to mix out current dewpoints, which,
so far, is not happening as much as the models indicate. Running the
thermodynamic and wind-related parameters through the Large Hail Parameter
(LHP) comes up with a value of 6. This basically suggests that hail
could potentially be up to the size of golf balls. Not really sure if
we will get a sustained weakly rotating updraft or not, so hail could
be smaller. There is not a threat of tornadoes. There could be 60+ mph
outflow winds, as an inverted-v thermodynamic profile is expected. Have
the highest pops for Trego and Ellis counties and then taper values
quickly southward as thunderstorms are not expected along and south
of a line from Coolidge to St. John. The most recent HRRR has storms
south of this line, however, this model tends to overdo cold pools and
resultant upscale growth. Overnight lows will be in the 60s/70s.

Tomorrow:

Much cooler temperatures are expected for tomorrow as the aforementioned
front sinks south of the region. Have lowered maximums as the majority
of the models are now cooler with "cold" air advection in the wake of
the front. Expecting maximums mostly in the mid 80s along with 10-20
mph N/NE winds. There could be some storms along and south of the Arkansas
river...have slight pops in after 21Z, but most of the precipitation
will be during the long term period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Medium range models indicate a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing
across the Western High Plains early in the period Wednesday as an
upper level ridge axis slowly shifts eastward across the
Intermountain West. A series of H5 vort maxima are projected to
cycle off the ridge axis and drop southeastward across the high
plains of eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Meanwhile, a
prevailing southeasterly flow near the surface will continue to
draw ample moisture up into central and western Kansas while a
lee side trough of low pressure develops across eastern Colorado.
As a result, thunderstorms are likely across eastern Colorado
Wednesday afternoon as lower/mid level lapse rates steepen across
the high plains. These storms will drift eastward, potentially
moving into west central and southwest Kansas overnight.

Additional thunderstorm development will be possible across
central Kansas toward early Thursday morning as the surface
trough axis pushes eastward across western Kansas overnight.
This and surface high pressure parked across the Great Lakes
Region will enhance an area of convergence across central and
eastern Kansas, not to mention an axis of higher surface
dewpoints being drawn northwest into central Kansas within the
upslope flow. Although the flow aloft is expected to be less than
favorable, enough forcing/lift near the surface will exist to
support thunderstorm development across central Kansas early
Thursday with any storms moving off to the east by the afternoon
time frame. Drier conditions are expected Friday as the upper
level ridge moves further east out of the Rockies into the
Western High Plains.

Near normal temperatures are likely Wednesday as a lee side trough
of low pressure develops across eastern Colorado while surface high
pressure drops southeast out of the Northern Plains into the
southern Great Lakes Region. This will set up a south to
southeasterly flow into western Kansas drawing slightly warmer
air north into western Kansas. The GFS/ECMWF show H85 temperatures
warming slightly from the day previous with values in the lower
20s(C) across central Kansas to near 30C in extreme southwest
Kansas. With GFS/ECMWF model soundings showing steep low level
lapse rates developing by Wednesday afternoon, look for highs well
up into the mid to upper 80s(F) across central Kansas with lower
to mid 90s(F) across much of southwest Kansas. Widespread 90s(F)
are expected Thursday and Friday as the warming trend continues
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Conditions will continue to be VFR, with mid level cigs in the
bkn100 range. There is just a slight chance for thunderstorms at
the GCK and DDC TAF sites, but confidence is not high enough to
include in TAFS. Winds will generally be from the northeast at
15g25kts tonight, and then becoming north at 7 to 8 knots around
18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  64  89  68 /  10  20  20  30
GCK  85  63  90  67 /  10  20  20  20
EHA  85  64  93  70 /  20  30  20  30
LBL  87  65  94  69 /  20  30  20  20
HYS  85  61  89  67 /  10  10  20  30
P28  89  67  90  69 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burke





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