Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 172051
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
251 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014


FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  37  29  43 /  70  30   0   0
GCK  30  37  27  45 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  30  40  28  47 /  40  10   0   0
LBL  32  39  29  45 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  26  33  26  41 /  80  20   0   0
P28  32  37  30  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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