Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 192112 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

...CORRECTED FOR THE LATEST LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

A CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY TURN NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON EASTERLY AND THEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE RETURN (WEAK) SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
HOWEVER THE LEVEL OF CIRRUS REMAINS LESS CERTAIN. NAM MODEL
INDICATES INCREASING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES POOLING NEAR THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KS THROUGH SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. IN THESE AREAS THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR FOG
OWING LARGELY TO SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

THE NAM MODEL AND IT`S RELATIVE MESOSCALE MODELS MUST AGAIN BE
IGNORED FOR THURSDAY`S MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THEY CONTINUE
TO BE INFLUENCED BY A FALSE SNOWFIELD. THE GFS/ECMWF AND MOS
NUMBERS WILL HANDLE THE TEMPERATURE FIELDS MORE REALISTICALLY
UNTIL THIS ISSUE IS RESOLVED. WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE
OR WARM ADVECTION, MODEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

THE FIRST PERIODS OF THE "LONG TERM", THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WILL BE FOCUSED ON DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT WITH NOT MUCH ELSE
IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ACTIVITY AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OTHERWISE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND).  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED A WHOLE LOT OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE (COMING IN OFF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY) AND THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC (WEAK) DEVELOPMENT STILL FAVOR SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC/ISOENTROPIC LIFT COMING INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KS
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. AS SOME OF THE 900-850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION/SATURATION REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL KS, SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (EXCEPT FOR PLACES LIKE
KIOWA RIGHT ALONG THE OK BORDER). THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE
TO OUTPUT "DRIZZLE" QPF (0.01-0.02 INCH) AS FAR NORTHWEST AS ROUGHLY
A COLDWATER TO LARNED LINE, AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW 20 POPS FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE
SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB
OUT OF SUB-FREEZING TERRITORY AFTER SUNRISE. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
RESPONSE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL BE ENTERING A LOWER
TROPOSPHERE ABSENT OF BAROCLINICITY (EXCEPT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH
TEXAS NEAR THE SURFACE). THE ONLY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TIED TO WARM CONVEYER BELT, AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
DO NOT FAVOR ANY PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
THE MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE. SATURDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE FAIRLY MILD, COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING TO WHAT IT HAS BEEN,
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 53-57F RANGE MOST PLACES.
THE SATURDAY WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE ZONAL JET
WITH VERY NICE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC.
AGAIN, THE ZONAL NATURE OF THIS FEATURE AND PLACEMENT OF LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WILL INHIBIT ANY
PRECIPITATION OF SUBSTANCE THIS FAR WEST. SINCE THIS MAJOR JET WILL
BE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE SATURDAY WAVE, THE TWO ENTITIES WILL
PHASE INTO A MAJOR MID LATITUDE CYCLONE (AS IS SHOWN NOW BY BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF MODELS) OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION.
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THIS WILL
BE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AND PROBABLY
LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS WELL. WHILE WE WILL SEE SOME COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS MAJOR LOW, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CROSS-MOUNTAIN MOMENTUM
IN THE 800-650MB LAYER TO OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION WITH
DOWNSLOPE.

IN THE DAY 8 TO 10 TIME FRAME, THE GFS AND GFS13-PARALLEL ARE VERY
DIFFERENT FROM THE ECMWF IN WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE TOWARD THE IMPORTANT
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY TIME FRAME. THE GENERALLY HIGHER-SKILL ECMWF
SHOWS A MUCH COLDER, WETTER SCENARIO WITH ARCTIC AIR COMING DOWN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHEREAS THE NCEP GLOBAL SOLUTIONS DO NOT
SUPPORT THIS AS OF RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION MAY IMPACT THE HAYS
TERMINAL WITH WINDS UP AROUND 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL TURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING BEFORE FLIPPING TO THE SOUTH FOR THURSDAY. DEEP DRY
ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS WILL PRECLUDE ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  47  26  45 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  22  47  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  47  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  22  46  23  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  22  46  24  43 /   0   0  10  10
P28  26  48  32  46 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.