Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 182316
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
616 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH AN ATTENDANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION OF NEBRASKA AND WYOMING THROUGH
THE LOWER PLAINS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. A LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
EXISTED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND ONLY SLOWLY WAS ABLE TO
ERODE FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING (NORTH OF I-70). ADDITIONALLY A RADAR FINELINE WAS
NOTED LIFTING NORTH THROUGH HAYS AND NESS CITY APPROXIMATING THE
BOUNDARY TIEING INTO A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CU FIELD TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE AFOREMENTIONED CU FIELD WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SOUTH AND WEST
OF DODGE CITY INTO THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON, IN A ZONE OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL BY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER THE CURRENT
RUNS OF THE VARIOUS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS KEPT CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED AS THE MID LEVELS WERE NOT VERY UNSTABLE WITH WEAK
SURFACE BASED CAPE. HEADING INTO TONIGHT, INCREASINGLY BETTER
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND A GENERAL LACK OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE REDEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LOW LYING
COLD AIR DRAINAGE AREAS SUCH AS THE ARK VALLEY. PATCHY FOG MIGHT
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS AS THE NAM
PROMOTES THIS IN A WEAKLY DOWNSLOPE BUT CONVERGENT SURFACE AREA
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AS WINDS HOVER
AROUND 10 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY AS
DIURNAL MIXING DEVELOPS AFTER 15 UTC FRIDAY. THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE ALL STARTED TO BECOME CONSISTENT WITH TAKING A FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK WITH THE INCOMING REMNANTS; ENOUGH SO THAT POPS FOR LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WERE ALL BUT REMOVED FOR THE MAJOR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW OF
THE DISTURBANCE NEARLY DISSOLVING AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE ABSENCE OF LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC
CONVERGENCE, DEFORMATION AND BAROCLINICITY WILL REALLY MITIGATE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND
ANY REMAINING LIFT NEAR THE VORTICITY CENTER WILL BE TRACKING TOO FAR
SOUTH TO AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. NEVERTHELESS, WE WILL CONTINUE
TO CARRY LIKELY POPS (55-60 PERCENT) ONLY FOR THE OKLAHOMA BORDERING
LOCATIONS WITH 20 TO 40 POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. AS WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY, A
WEAK POLAR FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE POPS FOR
CONVECTIVE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. WE HAVE ALSO WARMED UP THE HIGHS
FOR SATURDAY BACK INTO THE MID 80S, AS THE PROSPECT FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WANED.  THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
ZONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH IT WILL
GAIN A LOT OF MOMENTUM EAST OF HERE. POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE WILL
LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW OVERCAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COOL LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR PROLONGED
LOW CLOUDINESS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, A FAIRLY SLOW-
MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL WALLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES PROVIDING
ENHANCED LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOW LEVELS, THEREBY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR
MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE BEST LIFT (LARGELY DUE TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET
STREAK DYNAMICS) APPROACHES WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE RECIRCULATED
COOL AIRMASS BEHIND THE WEEKEND FRONT AND QUICK APPROACH OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM, THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH TIME FOR LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
WARMING, AND THE GENERAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED FAIRLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH
LACK OF DIRECT INSOLATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
PRESENT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  88  67  84 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  63  87  66  83 /   0  10  30  30
EHA  61  79  62  82 /   0  20  50  40
LBL  63  86  66  82 /   0  20  60  60
HYS  65  89  66  83 /   0   0  30  40
P28  67  91  70  85 /   0  10  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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