Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210915
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
415 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

...UDATED LONG TERM AND FIRE WEATTHER SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

The main shortwave trough is depicted by the models to move into
eastern Kansas this morning. The RUC model has picked up on the MCV
over central Kansas and moves it southward into northwest Oklahoma
today in the northwesterly flow on the backside of the trough. Model
soundings show instability around 600-800 j/kg of CAPE as a mid
level cold pool moves southeast across western Kansas today. Given
the forcing with the MCV and a nearly uncapped sounding profile this
afternoon over south central Kansas, will add some slight chance
pops for showers and isolated thunder to the forecast.

Things will quiet down fairly quickly late this afternoon and early
evening as a ridge of surface high pressure moves east through the
High Plains. Winds will become light and variable in the evening and
gradually swing around to the southeast and south. Overnight lows
will be the coolest over central Kansas where low to mid 40s are
expected. Lows will drop into the upper 40s to around 50 along the
Colorado border where increasing southerly winds will help keep
temperatures up a few degrees more.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

An upper ridge will be transitioning eastward across the Great
Plains on Tuesday. Surface pressure falls along the lee of the
Rockies and the retreating surface high pressure across the Missouri
valley will create a moisture transport zone over the central High
Plains, effectively causing an increasing in surface and 850 mb dew
points across western and central Kansas. Afternoon heating across
the higher terrain around the Palmer Divide will allow thunderstorms
to form and be steered eastward into this moisture and instability
axis. Some thunderstorms could move into western Kansas through the
evening hours most likely around Syracuse. With a lack of dynamics,
convection should be mainly diurnally driven, and as a result dry
weather is likely through the overnight Tuesday into Wednesday
morning with mild lows. An upper wave will be approaching  the
region Wednesday with several impacts. A decent surface pressure
gradient will be in place as much drier air mixes out eastward
though the morning and afternoon. The overall momentum transfer will
probably be negatively influenced by mid level cloud decks indicated
on model soundings and may even prevent a high wind event given 0-1
km mean winds on the order of 35-40 knots. Additionally a set up for
severe storms will exist along and ahead of the dryline as the
atmosphere destabilizes through the morning. Potential for rotating
supercells exist with NAM model suggesting around 2-3 m2/s2 EHI(3km)
with up to round 2000 J/kg of surface based CAPE ahead of the
dryline feature. Good subsidence should follow in behind this
dryline overnight into Thursday morning. Dry and warm conditions
will likely follow into Friday as the next flat upper  ridge settle
across the region. Additional thunderstorm chances are in the
forecast later in the weekend and early nextweek associated with
yet another west coast jet carving a trough into the southern
Rockies by the GFS and ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Low level moisture advecting up into southwest Kansas could result
in 2-4 miles in mist along with IFR stratus. There is some
uncertainty as to how widespread it will become. For now will have
a tempo group for lower visibility at Garden City and Dodge City
early this morning with conditions improving to VFR between 10 and
12z. A cold front will move through around sunrise and sweep the
low level moisture out of the area. By this afternoon, some
instability showers could develop in the area around and east of
Dodge City and have added VCSH to the Dodge City TAF for this.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Elevated fire danger is expected for Tuesday as breezy southerly
winds and dew points in the 20s prevail through the day. A more
significant risk is expected Wednesday as a dryline moves as far
east as highway 283 by afternoon with strong gusty surface winds.
Fire weather watches and eventually red flag warningS may be issued
in the coming forecast shifts especially for areas west of Highway
83 for Wednesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  44  79  56 /  10   0  10  20
GCK  75  44  82  57 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  74  50  83  57 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  76  46  83  57 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  75  42  79  55 /  10   0  10  20
P28  76  46  79  54 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Russell






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