Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 152017
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
217 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

A 1048 mb high will continue pushing south across the Plains
tonight, and across central and eastern KS on Tuesday. With cold,
dry advection maximized this evening, surface dew points will
continue to crash as temperatures fall into the single digits this
evening and eventually into the sub zero fahrenheit range after
midnight across central Kansas. Local GFS MOS winds remain just
below 10 knots through the night, however steady. Resulting wind
chill indices are commonly expected between 10 below and 20 below
zero across central Kansas. Additional counties were added to the
wind chill advisory along the OK line through Tuesday morning.
Although cold advection will be waning overnight, the new colder
airmass will limit highs on Tuesday to the teens across central
Kansas and 20s in the higher elevations of the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

A warming trend will develop during the week, and Friday looks to be
the warmest day with potential for widespread highs in the 60s
across the area, as a shortwave upper ridge pushes across the Highs
Plains. Southwest flow aloft will develop heading into the weekend,
in advance of a sharp trough/upper low by Sunday for the central and
Southern Plains. This should appear to be a relatively high
confidence precipitation event, with relatively low confidence
with respect to actual precipitation amounts, due to the unknown
mesoscale factors. Although an abrupt drop in temperatures from
the front, it does not look like the type of Arctic outbreak we
are now experiencing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1050 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Very cold, and dry air is moving into the area, which should
quickly move the narrow MVFR/IFR stratus band out of southwest
Kansas before mid afternoon. VFR conditions are expected from mid
afternoon onward through the TAF period at all terminals. North
winds will gradually diminish to light overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  -1  20   5  40 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  -2  22   6  42 /   0   0   0   0
EHA   3  27  12  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL   2  24   7  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  -5  15   2  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28   1  19   4  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday
for KSZ030-031-043>046-063>066-076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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