Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 141712
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

...Update to aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

The 14.12Z 250-hPa map showed a meridional flow pattern across the middle
portion of the United States. The strongest jet streak of 105-110 kt
was well south of the the region (across south Texas). At 500-hPa, an
amplified trough was moving across the Great Plains. Fairly cold mid
level temperatures of -28C to -34C was upstream of KDDC. At the lower
levels, intense cold air advection (CAA) was noted across SW Kansas
with 700-hPa/850-hPa temperatures down to -10C/-7C, respectively.
Fairly impressive CAA, considering the 850-hPa temperature was 19C
24 hours ago. At the sfc, a strong cold front had moved all the
way down to coastal Texas. Low-end accumulated snow advisory
amounts reported across the DDC forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Snow will continue across south central Kansas during the morning
hours before tapering off by noon. This is due to a storm system
exiting to the east. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies in the
morning with decreasing clouds from north to south in the afternoon.
Winds will generally be from the north with some gusts. With
abundant cold air advection, highs today are only forecasted to
reach into the low to mid 40s. Winds decrease in speed and shift to
the west tonight. In addition, skies will be mostly clear with dry
conditions. This will allow good radiational cooling to occur across
western Kansas with lows dipping into the lower to mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

The Wednesday Night-Thursday time frame continues to present a major
challenge in the forecast. Until then, tranquil weather will
encompass the western Kansas region Tuesday and Wednesday as dry
northwest flow aloft will occur across the Rockies and adjacent
Western Plains. We will see a warm-up both Tuesday and Wednesday, as
a result.  Wednesday will be the warmest day out ahead of the next
front with a downslope enhancement in the low level flow leading to
warmer 900-800mb temperatures. The cold front late Wednesday will
approach west central Kansas and if the timing of this front is
faster than currently expected, then highs will need to be lowered.
As it is, mid to upper 60s should be common across much of
southwestern Kansas with some lower 70s south and east of a Liberal
to Dodge City to Larned line.

The cold front will continue to move south with surface cyclogenesis
occurring in response to a digging jet streak over the Rockies. This
is where the similarities between the ECMWF and the GFS end.  The
ECMWF continues to show a more progressive translation of the jet
streak and attendant mid level potential vorticity (PV) anomaly to
the north of southwest Kansas. This results in important 700mb
cyclogenesis farther north toward the Kansas-Nebraska
border...unfavorable for decent precipitation event across southwest
Kansas. The GFS continues its more developed, southern solution that
it was showing yesterday. It is also a colder solution. Should the
ECMWF begin to trend in the direction of the GFS, then this will
lead to much greater confidence in the precipitation/temperature
forecast for late Wednesday Night into Thursday.  As it is, we will
be carrying Likely POPs north of the Arkansas River. We lowered the
highs a bit more for Thursday and have introduced a non-diurnal
curve in the hourly temperature forecast for Thursday as there is a
fairly high degree of confidence in falling temperatures during the
day. The stronger, colder GFS solution would support another
accumulating snow event over much of southwest Kansas.  We will keep
the Rain or Snow precipitation forecast going. By Thursday Night,
the storm will begin to pull away from the western Kansas region and
POPs will be decreasing during this time frame. Another hard freeze
can be expected early Friday morning as surface high pressure moves
in supporting light winds and clear skies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. NW/N winds of 12-21 kt will
decrease this evening and then back SW-W 5-10 kt. Increase in magnitude
of 12-21 kt expected by 15Z tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  24  63  40 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  44  23  64  39 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  43  26  65  42 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  43  25  65  41 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  46  24  64  40 /  20   0   0   0
P28  46  25  63  39 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden






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