Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 101800
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
...Udpated for aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
For today, a surface trough of low pressure in the lee of the
Rockies will provide light south winds early this morning. Winds
increase to 15 to 24 mph by mid morning mixing. Lots of sunshine is
expected today with a warm front moving across western Kansas. 850
mb temps rise from around 13 degrees celsius yesterday to around 23C
today. This will give highs into the low to mid 80s with the warmest
toward the Colorado Border.
For tonight, weak upper level ridging across the Central Plains will
breakdown ahead of the next shortwave trough moving into the
Intermountain West. At the surface, a lee trough will move slowly
into far western Kansas with light south winds around 8 to 12 mph
and lots of clear skies.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
For Sunday, upper level westerly winds will prevail across the
Rockies and into the Central Plains. A surface trough over far
western Kansas will move slowly eastward in the afternoon with
lighter southerly winds, of 8 to 15 mph, especially in the trough
axis west of Dodge City. With 850 mb temps near 25 degrees Celsius,
high temps will warm to around 90 degrees. Medicine Lodge has the
best chance of breaking a record of 88 set back in 2012. Dodge
City`s record is 94 set in 1989, and Garden City is 97 set in 1975.
Skies will be mostly sunny with increasing high level cirrus in the
A cold front then moves across western Kansas on Sunday night as a
strong upper level shortwave trough moves across the Northern
Plains. Light south winds will shift to the north and increase to 15
to 30 mph with the cold front. Since the atmosphere is so dry, no
rainfall is expected. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s.
For the period of Monday into Friday, northwesterly upper level flow
will prevail across the Central Plains with no rainfall in the
forecast. Winds and low RH may lead to a fire weather threat on
Monday, but forecast RH is not below our 15 percent criteria.
Uneventful weather prevails as lee trough of low pressure
establishes. Highs warm from the mid 70s on Monday, to around 80
into Thursday, then low to mid 70s on Friday. Lows will be around 50
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
A surface trough will remain on the high plains through the
period. This will result in south winds at 8-14 kts. VFR
conditions can be expected.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 82 57 90 55 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 82 53 92 53 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 84 55 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 83 56 92 56 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 81 58 93 54 / 0 0 0 0
P28 81 59 90 55 / 0 0 0 0