Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Fairly deep upper level trough was moving east out of the High
Plains early this afternoon. A broad fetch of northwesterly flow
aloft extended from the trough back over the northern Rockies and
northeast Pacific. Another shortwave trough in the flow aloft was
moving onshore over the Pacific northwest. At the surface, a ridge of
high pressure extended from the western Dakotas into Kansas.

A fairly cool airmass over western Kansas resulted in low temperatures
in the mid and upper 30s this morning in spite of gusty north winds.
Over the next 18-24 hours, the lower levels will warm up somewhat as
the surface ridge moves east tonight and moves east ow level return
flow sets up and south to southeast surface winds around 10 mph
develop. In addition to this, we will see increasing mid and high
level cloudiness overnight ahead of the next shortwave. With
temperatures dropping back into the mid and upper 30s again tonight,
lightest winds and coolest temperatures will be over central Kansas.
Will issue a frost advisory for that area for later tonight into
early Thursday.

Southerly flow continues to increase as the next shortwave approaches
on Thursday. The models show a warm front lifting eastward into
western Kansas during the day. The lower levels should mix out by
afternoon with dewpoints back into the lower 40s. Along with the
limited moisture return, steep lapse rates are progged over the
frontal boundary with 500 mb temperatures around -20C. The models
continue to show a corridor of around 1000 j/kg MUCAPE developing
along with 40-50 knots of bulk shear which could support some quarter
to golfball size hail. SPC has updated the Day2 outlook to include a
marginal risk from west central into south central Kansas which
looks good.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

The shortwave trough moves east of the region Thursday evening with
showers and thunderstorms moving out of western and central Kansas by
during the mid to late evening hours. Thursday night and Friday will
see an upper level trough deepening over the western states and and
closing off near Four Corners on Friday night. The 12z medium range
models, especially the ECMWF and GEM, are in better agreement with a
more southern track of the upper low from northern New Mexico into
western Oklahoma by Sunday morning before lifting northeast across
eastern Kansas. This seems more reasonable given that the models are
showing thunderstorms breaking out over the southern Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley on Saturday/Saturday night.

Rain chances will begin to ramp up by late Friday afternoon into
Friday evening as UVM increases in the face of increasingly difluent
flow and deep layer isentropic lift over the area. By Saturday
morning, we should see widespread rain across much of western and
central Kansas. 850 mb temperature progs show temperatures cooling to
aob 0C across much of northwest and far western Kansas. Rain will be
mixing with snow at time by Saturday morning and may even change
over to snow over the far western counties during the day with
periods of moderate to possibly heavy snow at times. GFS ensemble
snow accumulations are variable with numerous members indicating
total snow accums of less than 6 inches in the western counties while
a few members are in excess of a foot. Current total snow accum
grids will indicate 1-3 inches along the Colorado border. Think these
amounts will likely increase over the next day or two.

Based on the 12z model runs, we should see the rain and snow winding
down from west to east during the day Sunday as the upper low lifts
out. Sunday night could see freezing temperatures depending on winds
and clouds. Monday and Tuesday should be dry and a little warmer
before another upper trough drops down into the region and brings a
chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region by mid week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

VFR flight conditions are likely for much of the TAF pd. The exception
to this is at KDDC/KHYS towards the end of the TAF pd, where IFR conditions
will be possible in association with low clouds. KGCK/KLBL are expected
to remain VFR. Otherwise, the second concern is if showers and thunderstorms
will develop this afternoon and evening. Will keep VCTS/CB groups for
KDDC/KGCK, as short term guidance is suggesting isolated activity in
this region by evening. Lastly, southerly winds will increase 15-25
kt by late morning into the afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens.


DDC  39  66  42  64 /   0  40  50  20
GCK  39  67  40  62 /   0  30  50  30
EHA  42  71  40  63 /   0  20  10  30
LBL  41  73  41  66 /   0  20  20  30
HYS  36  59  43  58 /   0  50  70  20
P28  40  67  46  68 /   0  30  50  10


Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ030-031.



LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Sugden is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.