Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 030541
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THESE GUSTY
WINDS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE MIXED AND BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH. LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE AROUND 32
DEGREES. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DENSE FOG IS
NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MIXING EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AS THE SOUTH WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THE THE LOWER LEVELS MAY GIVE RISE TO SOME
BRIEF CLEARING LATE MORNING, HOWEVER AFTERNOON CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN BASED LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 900 TO 850MB LEVEL AND
SOME AFTERNOON WARMING. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT SO WILL FAVOR AN
EARLY HIGH AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER FURTHER
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A CHANGE OF IMPORTANCE WAS MADE IN THE FORECAST REGARDING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY -- THAT BEING THE INCREASE IN SNOW CHANCES.
THE ENTIRE NEW 12Z SUITE OF MODELS, INCLUDING BOTH GLOBAL AN
LIMITED AREA HIGH- RESOLUTION, SHOW ANYWHERE FROM FIVE-HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF QPF TO TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. ALL THE MODELS ARE
APPARENTLY STILL TRYING TO PLAY CATCH UP TO WHAT THE REAL
ATMOSPHERE IS WANTING TO DO...SINCE TWO AIR STREAMS ARE INVOLVED.
THE PHASING/INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
JET STREAMS IS ALWAYS A PROBLEMATIC CHALLENGE, EVEN TWO DAYS OUT.
AS SUCH, IT APPEARS MORE JET ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH MAY
BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, EFFECTIVELY SLOWING THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS DOWN ENOUGH TO
DELAY THE ONSET OF THE 700MB FRONT.

A SLOWER 700MB ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE WOULD MEAN MORE TIME FOR
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO
REALIZE PRECIPITATION...AND IT APPEARS THAT IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE
ALL TRYING TO DO NOW. FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, THE GFS, NAM12, AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A TIGHT 700MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING FAIRLY SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
A MOISTENING OF THE 800-600MB AIRMASS TO THE POINT OF SATURATION,
ESPECIALLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST MOMENTUM
REACHES THE ADVANCING FRONT. THIS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ORIENTATION OF INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS WOULD SUPPORT THE LIFT
NECESSARY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SUSTAINED LIGHT PRECIPITATION, IF
NOT A CORRIDOR OF BANDED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. ALL THIS IS
JUSTIFICATION ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD, INCLUDING
SOME 55+ LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. AT THIS TIME, ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS IN
THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS NEXT EVENT IN THE LIKELY
POPS AREA (MAINLY ASHLAND TO COLDWATER TO MEDICINE LODGE AND
KIOWA) WITH A HALF INTO TO INCH FARTHER NORTH.

BEYOND THIS STORM, A WARMING TREND IS STILL ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE
WEEK AS WE ENTER A WEST-NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME. WIDESPREAD
50S APPEAR LIKELY BY FRIDAY WHICH WOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
VERY MINOR NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY ROTATE THROUGH THE
PATTERN AT SOME POINT DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT THERE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE BAROCLINICITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WHILE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS, THE LOW CIGS HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY STAY
OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER,
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT FOR NOW WILL CARRY SCATTERED
CLOUDS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  45  15  27 /  10  10  40  40
GCK  32  42  13  25 /  10  10  30  30
EHA  34  46  15  25 /  10  10  40  40
LBL  33  50  16  26 /  10  10  60  60
HYS  28  41  12  27 /  10  10  20  20
P28  30  49  18  29 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...GERARD


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