Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261132
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
632 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, ENOUGH FACTORS PRESENT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
PRESENT SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEARING
60F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY AS CAPPING WEAKENS. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG AS INDICATED BY NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BASED ON VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES, ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 70S(F) FOR THE MOST PART
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F)
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS AND NAM OUT TO 84 HOURS DOES HAVE DECENT
CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE EPISODES WHILE THE EC MAY BE ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE IN INDICATING PCPN. DAILY INSOLATION WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR IN SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND FEEDING ON THE INSTABILITY INTO WESTERN KANSAS BOTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN FESTERING ACROSS THE
AREA VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR AS
LIKELY TO HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOP AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE. AS FAR AS THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE MOST
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM MESOSCALE FIELDS (BASIC
CAPE AND SHEAR COMBINATIONS). ADDITIONALLY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
ONLY BECOME MORE MOIST FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE LATE WEEK AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ONCE AGAIN INCREASES TO AROUND THE MIDWAY
POINT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. SO WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT COULD BE ANY AND
ALL MODES WITH LOCALIZED OR EVEN AREAS OF FLOODING AS WELL.

BEYOND THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH ENTERS
THE ROCKIES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, PLACING THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN GENERAL IN A ZONE OF GOOD POSITIVE VORT ADVECTION. SOMETIME
AROUND FRIDAY, ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH COULD TRIGGER SEVERE WEATHER IF AT THE
RIGHT TIME OF THE DAY, OR SUB SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN IF THE THE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS WEAK. THE REGION COMES UNDER A MEAN MID
LEVEL RIDGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN, THE GFS IS INDICATING
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NOCTURNAL MCS POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

RELATIVELY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS COUPLED WITH WEAKLY DOWNSLOPE
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT LIKE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF EARLY MORNINGS. THE MODELS
HAVE A LARGE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS FOR CONNECTION LATER
IN THE DAY OR THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT TRENDS SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING
THE HIGH RESOLUTION ARW BEST THIS MORNING, WHICH IS FAIRLY
SUPPRESSIVE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  57  82  63 /  20  20  50  60
GCK  77  55  82  61 /  10  10  50  50
EHA  77  54  83  61 /  10  10  30  40
LBL  78  57  84  62 /  20  10  40  60
HYS  78  56  80  64 /  10  10  40  60
P28  80  60  82  65 /  30  30  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL



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