Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2014

...Updated for the short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

There is a high pressure ridge over Colorado south into New Mexico
late this afternoon.  A lee side trough is near the Kansas and
Colorado border, and a warm front has been pushing northeast
through western Kansas this morning. The forecast is on track for
today, with highs just over 100F degrees likely somewhere across
southern and western Kansas, and upper 90s in our northern zones.
There could be a few and far between showers and isolated
thunderstorms just about anywhere late today. The HRRR model shows
a few thunderstorms across our south and southeast zones after
21z, but the NAM and NAMNG5 models are showing storms first over
our west and then moving across the northern CWA. Mid and high
clouds will be on the increase late this afternoon and evening.
So, the low Pops in the 17-20 percent range blanketing our
forecast area seem reasonable. Time will tell on which model is
more correct.

The same HRRR, NAM, and NAMNG5 models decrease the measurable
precip after 04Z, and then the clouds will slowly dissipate after
09Z or so. I plan to reduce 20 percent Pops rapidly between 06Z and
12Z.  Not much precipitation will fall either, as any convection
will be high based.  I used the QPF_from_PoP application, and it
only shows 0.01 to spotty 0.03 inches of rain overnight.  With
clouds breaking late and perhaps a little rain, minimum temperatures
should end up in the middle 60s in Syracuse, Scott City, and
Wakeeney, while settling only to around 70F degrees in the Meade,
Coldwater and Medicine Lodge areas.  Winds will continue to hover
at less than 10 MPH tonight.

On Tuesday, the surface low will advect into central Kansas, and the
front will sag south across part of our CWA.  Thus, Max temps should
dip just a little north of the front, while south along the Oklahoma
border near Medicine Lodge, it should warm up to around 100F.  Winds
on Tuesday will be breezy from the south in the 15 to 25 mph and
gusty range.  I do not think there will any precipitation on
Tuesday, as the lower max temps will result in less instability than
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

Upper level troughing will gradually build across the northwestern
United States trough Friday, with upper level ridging across the
southern Plains. This pattern is conducive to weak lee troughing
over the high plains and mainly hot and dry weather across
southwestern Kansas. High temperatures will generally be between 96
and 100F each day, with lows from the upper 60s in far western
Kansas to the mid 70s farther east. There are small chances for
thunderstorms somewhere across western Kansas just about every day
from Wednesday to Friday ahead of the lee trough. The best chance
of severe thunderstorms will be to the northeast of southwest
Kansas where rich low level moisture will reside. However,
damaging wind gusts can not be ruled out this time of year when
it gets hot, with high dewpoint depressions.

There is some disagreement as to the arrival of the upper level
trough as it approaches the central and northern plains sometime
between Saturday night and Monday. The GFS/GEM/UKMET are faster
while the ECMWF is quite a bit slower. A faster solution would
result in better chances for thunderstorms as early as late Saturday
while the slower solution would delay the more widespread
thunderstorm activity until late Sunday. The cold front arrival
also hinges on the speed of the system, with cooler weather arriving
either Sunday or Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

With building high pressure from the west and weak high pressure
aloft centered southwest of Kansas, there will very few clouds
overhead and light surface winds through the next 24 hours. There
will be just enough instability for a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms late this afternoon and overnight, but there is not
enough confidence to put convection into the TAFS.  VFR conditions
should dominate for most of this TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  69  97  72 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  99  67  96  71 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  99  66  95  69 /  20  20  10  10
LBL 100  66  96  72 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  98  68  98  72 /  20  20  10  10
P28 100  70  98  75 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burke






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