Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 262302
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

...Update to aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold front will move south across western Kansas late this
afternoon and early this evening. SBCAPE values at 18z from SPC were
1500 j/kg or greater, but weak 0-6km shear was present near and
north of this boundary. NAM keeps +16c 700mb temperatures over
western Kansas at 21z Saturday and 00z Sunday, however model
soundings do suggest this cap may be broken near and north the
surface boundary late day which will extend from southeast
Colorado into south central Kansas. Also based on the same model
soundings at 00z Sunday it still appears that the previous shift
had the right idea with strong gusty winds being the main hazard
and with any evening convection that does occur.

Both the NAM and GFS to slightly differing degrees indicate a
weak upper wave moving out of the Rockies and across western
Kansas overnight. Any late day convection along the Rockies will
move southeast towards extreme western Kansas after 03z as this
overnight system approaches. Given the general agreement between
these two models will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms
across western Kansas overnight, especially over southwest Kansas
given that this is the area where the better moisture and
overnight instability will be located.

Cooler temperatures can be expected on Sunday as a surface to
850mb ridge axis builds into western Kansas and the 850 mb
temperatures fall from the upper 20s to lower 30s at 00z Sunday
back into the low to mid 20s by 00z Monday. Using this as a guide
for highs along with increasing moisture in the 800mb to 500mb
level will undercut the latest guidance and stay close to the
previous forecast with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s. Lower
dew points also forecast to return to north central and portions
of western Kansas in the lower levels with the better low level
moisture and instability shifting south/southwest. By late day it
currently appears that this instability axis will be located
across southwest Kansas as another upper level trough begins to
cross the Central High Plains. Will focus the better chances for
late day thunderstorms ahead of the upper trough and long the
instability axis. An area of mid level moisture and lift will also
be present during the afternoon across north central Kansas. At
this time have not mentioned chances for convection here given the
depth of the dry air forecast in the lower levels.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

The long term weather pattern will basically consist of an upper
level ridge building across the western United States and an upper
level long wave trough digging into the eastern United States. The
Central High Plains will be found in between these two features with
northwest flow above western Kansas. Mid levels of the atmosphere
cool down this week with increased cloud cover expected due to ample
moisture and lift. Towards the surface, an area of high pressure
will be located northeast of the CWA with an area of low pressure
developing southeast of the area around mid week. This means
southeast flow will be observed across the forecast area Sunday
night through at least Friday. The atmospheric column over western
Kansas will be very moist throughout the extended period with PWAT
values of over an inch expected. Lift will also be abundant due to
weak disturbances moving around the aforementioned ridge and these
features will bring the chance of heavy rain to western Kansas and
generally mostly cloudy skies. Thunderstorm chances look to be
confined to far western Kansas Sunday night with a break in the
action Monday morning into the early afternoon. Thunderstorm chances
then increase from west to east Monday afternoon into Monday night
with likely POPs in the grids Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation
chances decrease by the end of the week but have left a slight
chance in for the time being. Much cooler temperatures are expected
this week with highs in the lower to mid 80s with the exception of
Wednesday where mid to upper 70s are possible. Lows look to
generally be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR conditions expected. Some accas clouds this evening. An isolated
storm is possible, however, coverage should be very isolated and will
amend TAFs as necessary as the probability of any one storm impacting
the terminals is low. Additional storms are possible tomorrow evening,
but won`t put in cb/tsra in now as confidence is low and later TAF
forecasts can add as the picture becomes more clear. Variable
winds tonight, becoming NE 10-20 kt tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  87  65  85 /  20  10  10  20
GCK  69  85  64  83 /  20  20  20  30
EHA  69  84  64  82 /  20  40  40  40
LBL  71  87  66  84 /  20  30  30  30
HYS  70  87  62  86 /  20  10  10  10
P28  74  89  68  88 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden





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