Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 140721
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
221 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Snow will continue across south central Kansas during the morning
hours before tapering off by noon. This is due to a storm system
exiting to the east. Otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies in the
morning with decreasing clouds from north to south in the afternoon.
Winds will generally be from the north with some gusts. With
abundant cold air advection, highs today are only forecasted to
reach into the low to mid 40s. Winds decrease in speed and shift to
the west tonight. In addition, skies will be mostly clear with dry
conditions. This will allow good radiational cooling to occur across
western Kansas with lows dipping into the lower to mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

On Monday night the upper level trough will move east into the
mid Mississippi Valley and an upper level ridge weakens as it
moves east into the Rockies. An area of high pressure at the
surface will exit southwest Kansas and crosses the panhandle of
Texas during the overnight hours. Given the clearing trend
expected in the wake of the upper level trough and light west to
southwest winds will stay close to the previous forecast with
overnight lows mainly in the mid 20s.

Northwesterly flow will back more to the west allowing for
downslope flow to improve by early Tuesday. Net 24hour change in
the 850mb temperatures from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday from the
NAM, GFS, and the ECMWF was around 8C. Based on this trend and
850mb temperatures, a mostly sunny afternoon, and 00z Wednesday
ranging from around 7C in central Kansas to around 13c near the
Colorado border will continue to favor highs in the low to mid
60s.

An upper level trough, located around 140W earlier this morning,
will cross the Central Rockies Tuesday night which will result in
falling surface pressures across eastern Colorado and increasing
the southwest winds over western Kansas. A cold front will move
quickly south across the Northern Plains Tuesday night and by
Wednesday afternoon cross western Kansas. 850mb temperatures at
18z Wednesday and 00z Thursday south of the approaching cold front
continues to support highs climbing into the lower 70s. At this
time it appears these warm temperatures will be primarily located
near the Oklahoma border while further north the highs on
Wednesday are expected to be mainly in the low to mid 60s,
especially along and north of the I70 corridor where increasing
clouds are expected Wednesday afternoon. In addition to the
increase in clouds late Wednesday and Wednesday night there will
also be a chance for rain or snow as an upper level trough crosses
Central Plains mid week.

Cloud cover and cooler air behind the cold front will result in
keeping temperatures across much of western Kansas in the mid to
upper 40s on Thursday. The cool dome of high pressure at the
surface will move east/southwest across the Central Plains
Thursday night and early Friday which will likely result in lows
Thursday night around 30 under mostly clear skies. Highs on Friday
are expected to be mainly in the upper 50s to near 65. A warming
trend is then expected Saturday and Sunday with highs rebounding
back at least into the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Light to moderate snow will continue across the TAF sites
overnight bringing MVFR to IFR conditions. Periodic LIFR
conditions will be possible across the DDC Terminal. Snow should
end by sunrise with decreasing cloudiness throughout the day.
Winds will generally be from the north at 20 to 25 knots gusting
to over 30 knots at times. Winds then decrease slightly after
sunrise.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  24  63  40 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  44  23  64  39 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  43  26  65  42 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  43  25  65  41 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  46  24  64  40 /  20   0   0   0
P28  46  25  63  39 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084-085.

HARD FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Tuesday morning FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ063-
064-066-074>081-084>090.

FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ066-079>081-
086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42






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