Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 151106
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
506 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

The numerical models are in good agreement with moving the upper
level cyclone in northern Mexico into the Texas Panhandle by 06Z
Monday and to near MKC by Monday evening. A region of enhanced
upper level divergence on the RAP matches well with the region of
heavier precipitation near the Oklahoma/Kansas border early this
morning. This area of divergence propagates northeast into central
Kansas by 12Z, so it is reasonable to expect the band of heaver
precipitation to progress across south central and southwest west
Kansas during the morning hours. The next minor wave enhancing
upper level divergence was moving into southwest Texas at 07Z and
should reach southwest Kansas late this morning with another round
of heavier precipitation. Upward vertical motion with the upper
low itself will approach western Kansas this evening. There will
be multiple rounds of moderate to locally heavy precipitation
through Sunday night, and surface temperatures are not likely to
change a lot during the period. The rain has been warm enough that
much of it has run off without accreting to exposed surfaces, but
ice continues to accumulate on trees and power lines. Solar
radiation through the clouds today along with the warm rain may
keep major roads in reasonably good condition even with surface
temperature near or slightly below freezing during the day.
Temperatures probably will rise above freezing by this afternoon
in south central Kansas but may fall back to near freezing tonight
with additional minor ice accumulations possible. Confidence is
not high enough to merit adjustment of the current ice storm
warning.

As the upper level cyclone moves into northwest Oklahoma tonight,
a surface cyclone should propagate from southwest Oklahoma into
southeast Kansas, and low level flow will become north across
western Kansas. Cooler air will move across western Kansas during
the night, and the precipitation likely will change to snow with
some sleet possible near the Colorado border around sunset and
across much of southwest Kansas by Monday morning. Snowfall
amounts are somewhat uncertain, but two to four inches appear
possible, especially west of Highway 83. A winter weather advisory
may be needed later tonight and Monday morning in the area of
heaviest snowfall.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

A trough of warm air aloft will continue to produce precipitation
on the west side of the upper level cyclone Monday morning, and
the precipitation is likely to persist into the afternoon hours in
north central Kansas. North winds will increase to 15-20 mph
Monday, and the additional wind loading may cause further damage
to trees and power lines. Mostly cloudy skies and a persistent
cold pool in the low levels of the atmosphere will keep
temperatures in the 30s for highs Monday. Strong west to southwest
flow perpendicular to the northern Rockies Tuesday will result in
evolution of a plume of warm air in the lee of the mountains, and
Wednesday and Thursday should be quite mild with temperatures well
above climatological averages. Slightly cooler air may move into
western Kansas Friday as a vigorous upper level trough moves into
the Central Plains. There may be some showers Friday with the
approach of the upper level trough. There will be another chance
for precipitation Saturday night and Sunday as another upper level
trough digs into the central part of the country. Relatively mild
weather will continue since the arctic air will be confined to
Alaska and part of the Northwest Territories.

A blocky pattern with upper level high pressure near Hudson Bay
and an upper level cyclone closing off under the upper level high
will evolve next weekend. The GFS and ECMWF differ on evolution of
the deep cyclone that approaches the west coast early next week.
The GFS tries to amplify the upper level low in the central part
of the country while the ECMWF maintains a mean long wave trough
in the western United States. A coherent upper level divergent
pattern is moving rapidly eastward across the western hemisphere
and should enhance tropical thunderstorms in the western Indian
Ocean next week. Enhanced thunderstorms in this area favor mean
troughing in the western United States more like the ECMWF
solution. As such, the slower ECMWF solution seems more physically
reasonable, although confidence in how the atmosphere will behave
in blocky environments always is low.

It still appears likely that upper level high pressure will build
in Alaska and northwest Canada in late January and that several
invasions of arctic air will occur from late January into the
first part of February. The coldest air probably will move into
the northern Plains and the Upper Midwest, but Kansas will not be
spared.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 504 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Latest models suggesting widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings today as
several periods of freezing rain move across western and north
central Kansas. As each area of freezing rain passes the potential
exists for ice accumulations to range from 0.10 to around 0.25
inches depending on the duration of this precipitation. Since can
not rule out some light precipitation between the main events will
not get too detailed on when the steadier and heavier
precipitation will occur at any particular taf site. With these
steadier showers the visibilities will occasionally fall back into
the to IFR categories. Winds today will be east northeast at 10
knots or less. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  28  35  24 / 100 100  60  10
GCK  31  27  35  22 / 100 100  60  10
EHA  32  26  37  25 / 100 100  40  20
LBL  33  27  38  24 / 100 100  40  10
HYS  32  27  34  24 / 100 100  80  10
P28  37  32  41  26 / 100 100  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...Burgert



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