Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171108
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
508 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 131 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Quiet weather is expected during the short term period. A weak lee trof
will bisect the region today. The main impact will be a wind shift,
however, wind magnitudes will be generally weak. There will be less
downslope winds compared to yesterday, and thus highs will be a few
degrees cooler. Values generally around 70F are expected. Overnight
lows will be fairly mild with low 30s west to lower 40 east. No precipitation
is expected within the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 131 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

The general theme of quiet weather is expected for much of the long
term domain. The weekend still looks pleasant with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s. The EC still shows a highly meridional synoptic trof
influencing the region late Sunday night and into Monday morning. WAA
will increase significantly Sunday evening. Forecast MUCAPE is still
indicated and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along with showers.
The best moisture convergence and theta-e advection look to be located
across the southern and eastern zones. This is where the highest pops
are forecast. NAM forecast reflectivity also suggests some convective
elements through the overnight. Even though bulk shear is forecast
to be moderate, instability overall is on the weak side with only a
few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. Pleasant temperatures with highs generally
around 70F will continue heating into the upcoming business week. Another
synoptic trof with lee cyclogenesis is possible toward the end of the
business week. The highest pops are expected across the northern zones
as the EC generally shows an northern track with this second system.
Cold air advection is much stronger with this system and a mix of precipitation
is possible. Warm sector precipitation may end up across eastern Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 507 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

A surface boundary will cross western and north central Kansas
this afternoon. As this surface boundary passes the southerly
winds at 10 to 15 knots will first become light, and then shift to
the north at 10 to 15 knots. Models this morning were trending
towards this boundary crossing the GCK and HYS areas towards
between 21z Friday and 00z Saturday. The southerly winds are
expected to shift in to the north in the DDC area after sunset.
VFR conditions will continue at all three taf sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  36  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  70  32  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  34  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  70  34  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  71  35  64  44 /   0   0   0   0
P28  71  41  68  47 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert



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