Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171757
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HYS WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG
AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD IN THE 09-15Z
TIME FRAME. DDC WILL BE CLOSE, AND WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS 3SM BR
FOR NOW, BUT DENSE FOG IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AT DDC AS WELL CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  64  91  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  93  61  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  90  60  86  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  92  63  90  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  85  65  83  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  68  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



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