Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240015
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
615 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

PRETTY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. RADAR TRENDS
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY TRENDED DOWN WITH ONLY SPOTTY FLURRIES NOW.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE AND SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10
MPH ARE EXPECTED BY DUSK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLD AND IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS EXCEPT LOW TEENS FROM HAYS DOWN TO MEDICINE LODGE.
FOR TOMORROW, SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WHICH
IS DOWNSLOPE. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP
WITH MID TEENS BY ELKHART AND LIBERAL TO LOWER 40S BY HAYS AND
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
WITH POPS AT ZERO PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR/AND
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. GOING HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK A
BIT WARM WITH SOME SNOWPACK AND INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS. HAVE
LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH LOW TO MID 40S IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL FROM AROUND 4 ABOVE TO 15
BELOW CELSIUS. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
TEENS, WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY ONLY AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES.

FOR FRIDAY, THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WITH SOME
DISTURBANCES AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SPREADING IN FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS WILL STILL BE COLD AND ONLY
AROUND 20. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY, THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE PLAINS. HIGHS
LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, ALONG WITH CONTINUED SMALL CHANCES
FOR RAIN OR SNOW. NO MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH,
BRINGING  CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE AREA EVEN OUTSIDE THE
LOCAL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  37  16  38 /   0   0   0  20
GCK   8  36  15  37 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  10  36  18  42 /   0   0   0  30
LBL  10  35  16  43 /   0   0   0  20
HYS  13  44  19  44 /   0   0   0  20
P28  13  41  20  45 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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