Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250531
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

TONIGHT:

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY BOTH CORES OF THE WRF AS
A VORTMAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE 4 KM NAM IS DRIER AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM SHOWS NOTHING. GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE NAM, WILL BIAS TOWARDS THE WRF AND THROW IN LOW
20 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. OTHERWISE, INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
ASSOCIATED MIXING, AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS, A "MILD" NIGHT IS
IN STORE WITH MINS IN THE MID 30S.

TOMORROW:

THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR TOMORROW WAS TEMPERATURES. BOISE VERIFY
STILL SHOWS A COLD BIAS IN THE MODELS (AS IT WERE ON MY GRAVEYARD SHIFTS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO). FOR TOMORROW, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WITH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THINK WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE
REASONABLE AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR IS MIXED DOWN VIA THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ADIABATIC MIXING. THEREFORE,
INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO
PERCENT. TOMORROW WILL BE ON THE BREEZE TO WINDY SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH SITS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS BELOW A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. TOWARDS THE SURFACE,
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BRINGING WESTERN KANSAS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS
SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TREKS UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AND HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS DEPICTS A STRONG
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WHERE AS THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF A
DRIER PATTERN AND THE SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR AREA. I HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW BUT
THIS WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE AS THIS STORM SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO
THE PRESENT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS
IN THE 30S. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A FEW PLACES
COULD REACH AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ONLY DIPPING
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND AROUND 50
DEGREES ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS AT TIME BY MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET ON SUNDAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  60  33  68 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  35  61  33  69 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  31  58  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  33  60  33  69 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  36  53  31  68 /  20   0   0   0
P28  38  57  31  68 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD


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