Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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884
FXUS63 KDDC 260902
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
402 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...Updated synopsis,short and long term...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level low pressure
system currently moving east over the Utah/Colorado border early
this morning. A well defined shortwave trough rotating around the
southern quadrant of the upper low was moving across Arizona in
tandem with a 100 knot upper level jet streak. At the surface, low
pressure continues to strengthen over eastern Colorado with a warm
front extending east from the low. A dryline was pushing into far
southwest Kansas where winds are becoming southwesterly and
dewpoints are falling off. Moist low level southeasterly flow to
the north of the front was manifesting itself into a developing
area of low stratus along and north of a line from Medicine Lodge
to Tribune. Thunderstorms were firing up over far northern Kansas
in an area of strong isentropic lift.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

The upper circulation and shortwave trough will become negatively
tilted as it moves into the High Plains this afternoon. As this
occurs, warm front will lift to the north of I-70 while the
dryline moves into south central Kansas. Low level moist flow will
continue ahead of the dryline with surface dewpoints increasing
into the 60s this afternoon. A Pacific cold front is expected to
move out into southwest Kansas to near the Highway 283 corridor
this afternoon. It appears both of these features could provide a
low level trigger for thunderstorm development by late afternoon.

Thunderstorms should fire along the dryline by 4 pm or so along and
east of Highway 281. This area should see the greatest threat for
severe weather in the form of large to very large hail and potentially
strong tornadoes. As the region comes under the exit region of the
upper level jet and vort max, thunderstorms should develop farther
west toward Dodge City which is suggested by the convective allowing
models as well as the NAM and GFS. Very strong 0-6 km bulk shear
on the order of 50-55 knots will overspread the region this afternoon.
CAPE on the order of 3000+ j/kg will exist along and east of the
dryline which could result in baseball to softball size hail in a
few storms. Farther west, instability parameters will be weaker
due to drier boundary layer conditions but 1-2 inch hail will
still be possible along and east of Highway 283.

Thunderstorms will persist into the evening hours over central and
portions of southwest Kansas but it appears all of the activity should
be north and east of the I-70/Highway 281 corridors by midnight. As
the upper low continues to move east overnight, there will be at
least a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across portions
of west central and southwest Kansas later tonight into Wednesday
morning associated with the mid level deformation zone.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Much of Wednesday into early Thursday night should be quiet across
western Kansas as the upper low moves northeast of the region and
a shortwave ridge moves over the central Plains. The models
continue to show another upper level trough digging into the Great
Basin and closing off before moving out over the central High
Plains Friday night. Low level moist return flow will begin across
the southern Plains and into the central Plains by Thursday night.

While the atmosphere will not be nearly as unstable over the region
as it will be today, we should see widespread showers and thunderstorms
developing late Thursday night and spreading northeast through western
Kansas on Friday into Friday night, providing another round of
beneficial rain to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Stratus and fog are expected to develop from central into western
Kansas through the early morning hours. This will mainly impact the
Hays terminal but could briefly impact the Dodge City terminal as
well. A warm front will lift north through western Kansas overnight
which will help push the stratus and fog north toward morning.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by around or after
21z. The thunderstorms should mainly be confined to the area east
of Highway 283 but could develop as far west as Dodge City.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  43  67  42 /  20  20  10   0
GCK  77  41  64  39 /  10  20  10   0
EHA  74  40  66  39 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  79  41  68  41 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  78  47  64  39 /  30  40  20   0
P28  83  52  73  46 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard



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