Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 302003
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE CONUS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER UTAH AND A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THIS PATTERN WAS RESULTING IN FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. NUMEROUS VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WAS
MOVING OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE AIRMASS OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT OVERLY
UNSTABLE. 0-6KM SHEAR IS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN
THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FORCING, AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A VERY WEAK MOVING
OUT OF WYOMING COULD HELP GENERATE AND SUSTAIN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS OVER SEVERAL
RUNS. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE MUCH TONIGHT BUT WILL
CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70 LATE THIS EVENING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
TO BE FAIRLY LOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN US AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN US WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW AND
AFFECT KANSAS AT TIMES. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING A MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LOW THROUGHOUT THE CWA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IF ANY STORM DO FORM THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY.
CLOUDINESS INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
WINDS SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE DIRECTION. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS LOOKS TO BE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE OF
AN NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT RULED OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS AROUND
100 WEDNESDAY THEN AROUND 90 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN LOOK TO INCREASE INTO THE MID 90S.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS
THEN LOOK TO ONLY DIP INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN WYOMING AND SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING A
PERSISTENT SIGNAL THAT SOME OF THESE COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL CARRY VCTS AT THE
HAYS TERMINAL FROM 06Z-08Z FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  98  68  92 /  10  20  20  40
GCK  71  98  69  90 /  10  10  20  40
EHA  71  99  70  91 /   0  20  20  40
LBL  72 100  71  92 /   0  20  20  40
HYS  73  97  68  90 /  10  10  20  30
P28  75 100  71  94 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.