Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241918
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
218 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING LEAVING WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTING TO
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND THIS FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO
MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FASTER OR SLOWER THAN WHAT THE MODELS
SHOW THE TEMPERATURES COULD REFLECT A DIFFERENT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY GIVING WAY TO A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MUCH
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH.
ALONG WITH A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN H5 VORT
MAXIMA DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN VOID OF NECESSARY MOISTURE,
A STRONG ENOUGH JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 VORT MAXIMA MAY BE
ENOUGH SUPPORT ALOFT TO PRODUCE SPRINKLES OR EVEN A FEW ISOLATED
HIGH BASED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING ABOUT A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL WARM THE
NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER RAISING H85 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 5C
IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 10C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR
HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RAISES H85
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER WITH VALUES AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE 10C.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER TO MID 70S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING APPROACHES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S(F) THIS WEEKEND WITH THE LOWER 80S(F) A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OVER HYS TERMINAL WHERE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
OBSERVED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
FELT THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING
TO OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  64  32  63 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  38  61  30  63 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  42  62  34  63 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  41  64  33  64 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  39  59  30  58 /   0  20  10  10
P28  44  68  36  62 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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