Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 272005
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
205 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 454 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EXPECTED FORECAST SNOWFALL
RANGE FOR THIS MORNING, OR THE TIMING. THE WRF-ARW AND NMM WERE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AROUND 3.5 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES, AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS FORM THE NAM
RUN AND GFS/EC SPECTRAL MODELS. AT THIS TIME, THE SNOWFALL IS IN
THE EARLY STAGES, HOWEVER CALLS MADE TO LOCATIONS WEST OF DODGE
CITY INDICATED SNOW WAS ALREADY COVERING THE GROUND.

ONCE THIS INITIAL EVENT OCCURS, SNOW WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF TO ONLY
FLURRIES GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING LATER TODAY. THE LAYER
WILL WARM BY TONIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND WAVE OF THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SECOND, RELATIVELY HIGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO THE AREA STARTING VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND CONTINUING
THROUGH PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY. GFS SNOW RATIOS ARE NOT AS HIGH IN
THIS SECOND EVENT, WHICH THE MODELS TEND TO FAVOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
K-96 FOR A 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING OVER CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY,
THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENISIS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND WITH THE MID TO LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST, SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LIFT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE
FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE
OBSERVED. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH OCCASIONAL
BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND
AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES LOOK TO
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY REACHING TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES. THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL RUNS COME IN AND
HAVE A BETTER AGREEMENT OF TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
REBOUND INTO THE 40S THURSDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID TEENS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL END BY 18-20Z FROM NEAR KGCK TO KDDC WITH
MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AGAIN BY 08-10Z WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KDDC AND KGCK, THEN BY 13-15Z AT KHYS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES QUICKLY INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE AT 10-15KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  13  27  23  31 /  80  80  60  30
GCK  11  27  23  30 /  70  70  60  20
EHA  12  30  25  31 /  70  40  50  30
LBL  13  29  26  33 /  80  80  60  20
HYS  12  27  21  33 /  50  60  60  40
P28  14  28  24  35 /  80  90  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-
084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...KRUSE


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