Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 290803
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE BEST FORECAST RIGHT NOW AS WESTERN
KANSAS REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AS LEE
TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE CENTER OF A FAIRLY
LARGE SCALE LOW WAS OVER NEVADA TODAY, AND SHOWED REAL NO SIGNS OF
MOVING AT ALL. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE COULD BE IDENTIFIED ROTATING
NORTH THROUGH UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO ON WATER VAPOR LOOP. THERE
HAS BEEN A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE CONTINUED
SOUTH WINDS, WHICH LED TO A FIELD OF CUMULUS. BY MID AFTERNOON, THE
CUMULUS FIELD WAS THICKEST FROM JUST SOUTH OF DODGE CITY DOWN INTO
THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE CU
FIELD WAS BENEATH A VERY STABLE AND SUBSIDENT DEEP TROPOSPHERE WITH
A 500-700MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK OFF TO AROUND 6 TO 9 KNOTS TOWARD CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AS A RESULT, AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S. WE LOWERED THE
GOING HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS AROUND, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY LOW STRATUS OR
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AS FAR AS MONDAY GOES, PERSISTENCE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED, EXCEPT FOR
THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL GYRE WILL BE JUST A BIT CLOSER TO THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE WARM CONVEYER BELT FLOW STREAM AHEAD OF THE LOW
WILL GET CLOSER TO THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY, AND BY LATE AFTERNOON
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN KANSAS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD OFF ACROSS EVEN FAR WESTERN KANSAS UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS, SO WE ARE CALLING FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 12Z TUESDAY A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TO BE LOCATED ACROSS COLORADO. THIS SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRIEFLY STALLS OUT
FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. GIVEN MOISTURE AND
LIFT PRESENT NEAR/EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
IMPROVING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THESE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAS A DECENT HANDLE
WITH THIS CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY SO WILL NOT STAY FAR FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A FEW STORMS LATE TUESDAY MAY BE SEVERE GIVEN
00Z NAM CAPES AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG WINDS AND
QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARD.

AS THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS
TUESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE WEDNESDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
BY 00Z THURSDAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO BE
LOCATED FROM THE PANHANDEL OF OKLAHOMA TO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
KANSAS. MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LATE WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
THIS FRONT FAVORS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, MAILY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL INVADE
WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT
SURFACE WINDS OF UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THE MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AND A 500MB COOL POOL CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES TRICKY
ON THURSDAY. JUST USING THE GFS 850MB TEMPERATURE AT 00Z FRIDAY AS
A FIRST GUESS THE HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 60S.
GIVEN THE COOLING TREND ADVERTISED IN THE 925-850MB LEVEL AND
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WILL STAY CLOSE OR UNDERCUT THE LATEST
CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT.

TEMPEARTURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AROUND 8
KNOTS SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  83  61  84  56 /  10  30  30  20
GCK  82  57  82  54 /  20  40  10  10
EHA  82  57  81  51 /  40  50  10   0
LBL  83  61  83  53 /  10  30  20  10
HYS  83  63  80  58 /  10  80  20  20
P28  86  63  85  63 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.