Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 182039
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
339 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Cooler and drier airmass today following last night`s front will
lead to a very pleasant evening through Monday morning with
continued light winds. The surface high will shift east into far
southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma by afternoon Monday, and
the surface wind trajectories will continue around the backside of
the high out of the southeast. As a result, we should only see a
modest warmup over what we are seeing today as 850mb temperatures
warm about 3 degC by 00z Tuesday. This should lead to surface
highs in the mid 80s degF. Stable airmass will continue, leading
to a continued dry forecast through Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Summer subtropical ridge will be anchored across the Desert
Southwest, in its usual position for late June, centered over
Arizona through at least early Thursday. The resultant flow
pattern across western Kansas will be northwesterly or west-
northwesterly aloft with 500mb wind speeds in the 20-30 knot range
for the most part. As we return to southerly flow at the surface
10 to 20 mph starting Tuesday, we will see at least marginal deep
layer shear for loosely organized thunderstorm activity along a
quasi-stationary lee trough/dryline feature. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms will most likely be confined to areas of
far western Kansas, however should any organized clusters survive
after sunset, areas farther east, to say a Dodge City to La Crosse
line may see some late night thunderstorms. At this time, it is
difficult to pick out a single day/night that will be favored over
the other as any little wrinkle in the flow could excite
convection, and the global models just can`t readily pick up on
this subsynoptic detail 3+ days out. Each day should be hotter
than the previous through Thursday, but by Friday, a weak front
may push south and temper the heat a bit. A rather formidable
synoptic scale trough is suggested to push across the Northern and
Central Plains by next weekend bringing another strong cold front
through. The latest ECMWF has 850mb temperatures as cool as the
upper single digits as far south as Scott City to Hays, which is
even a bit cooler than the airmass behind this most recent front!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Tranquil aviation weather through this forecast period. High
pressure at the surface will keep winds below 12 knots from mid
afternoon through tonight and into the tomorrow morning. The drier
airmass in place will keep flight category VFR at all terminals
DDC, GCK, HYS, LBL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  86  63  94 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  58  88  63  96 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  59  89  65  97 /   0  10   0  10
LBL  61  88  64  96 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  58  86  62  93 /   0  10   0  10
P28  60  87  63  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid



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