Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 151824
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
124 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS
DIPPING FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, THEN
TURNING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AS
THE SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS THROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL
PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. EVEN WITH A
MODEST +70KT JET CORE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY, NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH MUCAPE A LITTLE ABOVE
500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CLIMB MUCH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH HIGHS NOT EXPECTED MUCH ABOVE 70F,
IF AT ALL. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO POSSIBLY THE
LOWER TO MID 80S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S(F) TONIGHT WITH A FEW UPPER
40S(F) POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THE LOWER 60S(F) CANNOT BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

ON WEDNESDAY, IT APPEARS A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
WILL SLIDE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS, AS A STATIONARY FRONT FORMS
IN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH. THERE WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO
LARNED TO MEDICINE LODGE. THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IN ABOUT THE SAME EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THEN ON FRIDAY, SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE, FROM
WHAT WILL BE THEN FORMER HURRICANE ODILE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
AREA, WILL GET SWEPT NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW. POPS WILL START
OUT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY IN OUR WEST FRIDAY, AND GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE ALLBLEND MODEL PLACES 26 PERCENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A GRADIENT UP TO 44 PERCENT IN OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES NEAR HAYS. THE FORCING WILL SHIFT A BIT SOUTHEASTWARD ON
SATURDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT PLOWING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION (THUNDERSTORM) CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ON SATURDAY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
DIGHTON TO ELKHART, IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FROM HAYS TO
MEADE, AND AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY, BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. I DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH RAINFALL FROM
THIS ACTIVITY, AND USED THE QPF_FM_POP TO POPULATE THE QPF FIELDS.
ONLY 0.01 TO 0.03 INCHES OF RAIN WERE PRODUCED NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS EXTENDED SHOULD BE THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST; THE COOLEST DAY
WILL BE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE CONTINUED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AT DDC AND GCK ALONG A NARROW BAND JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT GCK AND DDC THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH CEILING
RISING TO AROUND 600-900 FEET LATE AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY, THE
CEILING IS EXPECTED TO REACH 1000 FEET AT GCK AND DDC, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW. LIFR WILL REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AT DDC AND GCK AS THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...EFFECTIVELY
RECIRCULATING THE LOW LEVEL COOL/MOIST POOL. LIFR/IFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY HOURS TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  80  63  85 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  54  81  62  87 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  55  83  62  88 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  57  81  63  88 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  50  74  61  83 /  10  10  20  20
P28  57  80  64  85 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID


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