Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 041816
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
116 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough and an
associated H5 vort max exiting the Wyoming Rockies and pushing into
the high plains of western Nebraska tonight setting the stage for
possible thunderstorms across central and portions of western Kansas
through early Wednesday. As the system kicks out into the high
plains, a surface low will continue to organize near and along
the Kansas/Colorado border in west central Kansas with a near
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward into central
Kansas. Meanwhile, a return flow will continue to supply ample
moisture into the state with surface dewpoints remaining well up
into the 60s(F). As low/mid level lapse rates steepen late this
afternoon into early evening, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in a area of destabilization on the back side of an
eroding cloud shield and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
With the NAM/GFS showing SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/KG and
favorable vertical shear profiles, thunderstorms could become
severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
Although the flow aloft will be less than favorable, an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out based on favorable hodographs.

Seasonal temperatures are expected again tonight as a prevailing
southerly flow reinforces the mild air mass in place across the high
plains. Considering increased cloud cover across central Kansas
tonight and likely precip about, look for lows down into the
60s(F) across Central Kansas to possibly the lower 70s(F) in South
Central Kansas. A weak cold front is projected to push across
western Kansas Wednesday dropping temperatures across all of
central and much of southwest Kansas. Highs are expected to reach
only up into the 80s(F) in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor to
the 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon where
H85 temperatures will still be up near 30C.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.

For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A few thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas late this afternoon into tonight
potentially affecting KHYS and KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday morning.
Southerly winds of 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through late tonight as a weak lee side trough
of low pressure slowly moves from eastern Colorado into extreme
western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  65  93  69 /  10  20   0   0
GCK  92  65  94  68 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  92  65  97  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  92  65  97  69 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  87  65  88  68 /  40  50  10  10
P28  86  68  92  71 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...JJohnson


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