Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 311104
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
604 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THAT MATERIALIZES AS WELL AS THE EXTEND OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. WITH SIX HOURS TO GO WITH INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION, PLENTY OF TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES AWAY FROM MEETING THE FREEZING
POINT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAST LIKELY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES WRF RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS  OF THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINE, HOWEVER WE WON`T DISCOUNT THE COLDER MOS PRODUCTS WITH
LEAN TO THE FREEZING POINT FOR MOST OF THE WARNED AREA.

A MUCH COLDER DAY IS IN STORE GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE
ONGOING THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED MID 40S THROUGH THE SMOKY HILL REGION. LOW TO POSSIBLY EVEN
UPPER 50S MAY BE ACHIEVABLE FARTHER WEST IN PLACES LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE. AS THE COLD RIDGE AXIS SETTLES FARTHER EAST OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT, THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE  EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF RADIATING OUT TO WELL BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE OKLAHOMA
LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AN SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BASED ON 24 HOUR
WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z TO 00Z THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE 60S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE
70S APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS NORTHWARD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EJECTS FROM THE
BASE OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
APPROACHES THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON THE GFS THIS
SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL STILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
AT 00Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE
ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE ECMWF AND GFS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT BASED MOISTURE AND THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AND 850MB/700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP AND GIVEN CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE
HIGH THE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING/NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. AFTER A COOL START TO THE
WORK WEEK THE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS MID
TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATELLITE LOOP EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATING AN AREA OF STATUS
WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HRRR PICKED UP
ON THIS STATUS FAIRLY WELL AND MOVED IT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FROM
12Z TO 15Z THURSDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE GENERAL TREND OF THE HRRR
HOWEVER DPROG/DT INDICATED A SLIGHTLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA
OF FOG THAN WHAT THE HRRR INDICATED. CLOUD BASES THIS MORNING
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL LEVEL. ONCE THIS FOG DISSIPATES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WIND AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST
BY NOON AND THEN BY LATE DAY THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
10 KNOTS AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO
KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  31  59  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  53  33  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  40  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  55  37  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  45  27  53  40 /   0   0   0   0
P28  51  29  55  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT



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