Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 011725
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1125 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
The deep upper low, which was centered across the Siouxland region
late Monday Night shift slowly east into the Upper Midwest region.
This will keep the overall pressure gradient across western Kansas
essentially unchanged, thus a continuation of the west wind. Wind
speeds of 10 to 15 knots will prevail through the day Tuesday. The
latest NAM12 model suggests that some wrap-around cloud cover may
reach as far south as I-70 during the afternoon hours, so some
increased cloud in Trego and Ellis County may be in order, along
with some slightly lower temperatures (37-39F for highs, instead of
41-43F). Otherwise, the forecast is fairly straightforward with
quiet sensible weather later on today and tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
The first half of the long term period (Wednesday through Friday)
will be quiet and fairly mild with an upstream longwave ridge in
place. Downstream of the longwave ridge, a very minor shortwave
disturbance will move through the pattern late in the week, but it
will essentially do nothing of change to our sensible weather. The
next weather maker will likely come in late Saturday/Saturday Night,
but this system will not likely produce much precipitation as there
will be a deficiency in deep tropospheric baroclinicity along with a
lack of Gulf of Mexico moisture given the sustained off-shore flow
ahead of the incoming storm system. The SuperBlend guidance gives 20
(Slight Chance) POPs for the Saturday Night and Sunday periods.
Given the lack of cold air available, the dominant precipitation
would appear to be rain, although out west where the elevation is
higher, a Rain or Snow precipitation type is forecast.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015
VFR conditions will prevail. Some bkn-ovc mid clouds will move
into the KHYS region then move east as an upper trough moves
across. West to northwest downslope winds will prevail at 12-20kt,
some higher gusts at KHYS through sunset, then decreasing to
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 43 24 47 22 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 43 21 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 45 24 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 44 23 48 22 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 41 24 47 22 / 0 0 0 0
P28 47 26 48 24 / 0 0 0 0