Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE GENERAL THINKING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM YESTERDAY. EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. IT IS PROMISING TO SEE
THE NAM12 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FIELDS RESEMBLING THE ECMWF, WHICH
GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ITS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE
FIELDS. THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE VERY GOOD OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEVERE STORM WILL BE GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM 900 TO 800MB. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ANY DRYLINE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING WOULD
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE AMIDST 2500-3000 SBCAPE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
NEED TO EXCEED ABOUT 63F TO INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK, WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE POOLS ESPECIALLY ALONG DRYLINE-FRONT
INTERSECTION. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z
MONDAY WITH 50-55KT 1KM AGL WINDS DEVELOPING THANKS TO DYNAMICALLY-
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH ELSE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS MONDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD THE SURFACE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL
KEEP THE 30-40 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF A MORE SOUTHERN TREND LOOKS MORE
PLAUSIBLE (GFS). OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS BEYOND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE A DECENT
WARMING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AGAIN LEADING TO A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  50  10
GCK  67  98  61  87 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  10  10  20   0
HYS  69  95  63  84 /  20  40  70  10
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



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