Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211914
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
114 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

All the focus was on this period. Currently watching a 500-hPa low
that is located across southeast Colorado. 12Z models including the
NMMB/ARW and NAM have shifted the track of this low a bit south and
east. The main implications from this is the potential for higher snowfall
amounts located across the northern zones. Plumes are also confirming
this shift south. As a result, have increased snow amounts. This is
particularly true for Trego and Ellis counties, where 3-6" of snow
is now possible. Have an increasing concern that with the strong north
winds of 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph, local whiteout conditions could
be possible along the I70 corridor. As a result, felt it was prudent
to go with a strongly worded winter storm warning between the certain
blizzard conditions across northwest Kansas to lower amounts of snow,
but still significant travel impacts to the east. Areas of blowing
and drifting snow with reduced visibility are the main concerns with
this storm. Snow with this event should be fairly fluffy, as mid to
low level temps are fairly cold. The deformation band is still expected
on the north and northwest side of the 700-hPa low, where frontogenesis
is maximized. The worst of the storm event will be later tonight across
west central Kansas spreading east by morning across central Kansas.
For locations south of Highway 96, lower snow amounts of 0-2" have
been updated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

The storm will be tapering off by noon tomorrow. Most of the guidance
is warm across the northern zones. Went with cooler guidance, where
the heavier snowfall is expected. These values could end up too warm
if the snow event evolves as anticipated. Beyond this, high pressure
will build in Tuesday with much more tranquil conditions and less wind.
A significant warm up is expected Thursday with a downslope southwest
wind pattern. The EC shows a large amplitude trof swinging out across
the Northern Plains Friday. Colder air can be expected with this. The
overall progressive nature of this second system, along with the northern
extent of the trof does not bode well with getting significant precip
across southwest Kansas. Most of the frontal precipitation could easily
be east of the forecast area. For the weekend, a dry N to NW upper
air pattern is expected with seasonal surface temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Poor flight conditions overall and not a period for GA pilots. LIFR
conditions associated with low clouds and fog will slowly improve this
afternoon. However, at KHYS, reduced cigs may not improve much, if
at all, by the afternoon. IFR to LIFR conditions expected once again
tonight and into tomorrow in association with a winter storm traversing
the greater region. BLSN is expected, and locally reduced vis of 1/4
mile or even less is possible, with the highest probability of occurrence
at KHYS and secondly KGCK/KDDC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  28  42  22 /  30  40  30   0
GCK  34  22  40  20 /  70  90  20   0
EHA  38  21  46  21 /  50  50   0   0
LBL  44  23  46  20 /  30  40   0   0
HYS  39  28  35  20 /  50  90  90   0
P28  58  33  44  24 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening to
6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ043-044-061>063.

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon CST
Monday for KSZ045-046.

Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to noon CST Monday
for KSZ030-031.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden


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