Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171158
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
558 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

For today, a lee sfc low will continue to deepen through the day.
The net result in stronger southwesterly winds this afternoon.
With these downslope winds, very warm temperatures are expected
with widespread lower 80s. With the warm temps and winds, there
will be an elevated fire danger. See the fire section below for
details. Lows tonight should bottom out in the upper 30s to lower
40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

A strong cold front will move across the region early Saturday
morning. Strong northwesterly winds are expected in the wake of
the front. Much cooler temperatures / widespread 50s / still look
on track in the forecast. If there were to be any precipitation
will would be across the northern zones. There maybe a few
sprinkles further south, but the airmass is fairly dry, so am not
anticipating anything major. Sunday morning looks to be on the
cool side as high pressure and light winds prevail across
southwest Kansas.

Beyond Sunday, the pattern looks very quiet with continued
northwesterly flow aloft and a few trofs with dry fropas. High are
forecast to range in the 50s and 60s. Pops will remain very low
with no appreciable chance of precipitation as we head into the
middle portion of the upcoming business week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 556 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

An upper level disturbance and cold front will pass across the
region tonight. Winds will be westerly ahead of the front today
and then increasing from the north at 20-25kts after 08z behind
the cold front. There is only a small chance for light rain at
KHYS late tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible today. A surface
low will continue to deepen and an increase in the winds will
result. Relative humidities do not appear to be low enough for RFW
conditions. Another elevated day is possible on Saturday, however
this is very marginal as RH`s are expected to be higher despite
strong northwest winds. For today, burning is highly discouraged.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  40  52  27 /   0  10  10   0
GCK  80  38  50  25 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  80  37  51  29 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  83  38  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  78  40  50  25 /  10  20  10   0
P28  80  43  56  27 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Finch
FIRE WEATHER...Sugden



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