Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 050716
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING WESTERN KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
IS HOW WARM WE WILL GET TODAY AND THE LOW TONIGHT. I HAVE WENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES BRITISH COLUMBIA. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LITTLE IF ANY COOLING IS FORECAST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND
BASED ON THE 24HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 55 TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

ON SUNDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A 24HOUR 850MB
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF +2C TO +4C FROM 00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY SO
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S STILL APPEARS
REASONABLE FOR WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
MONDAY. DESPITE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATED TEMPERATURES WARMING BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM 00Z MONDAY
TO 00Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THIS THE LATEST CREXTENDEDFCST_INIT STILL
APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS THIS FRONT STILL APPEARS SMALL
BASED ON WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  20  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  19  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  43  21  57  27 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  21  56  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  21  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  41  20  55  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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