Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 261725
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

A large area of convection was moving east across Nebraska and
northern Kansas early this morning, being sustained by a low level
jet. The southern end of this area has been brushing across the
northernmost portions of the forecast area overnight and should be
east of the area by morning.

The upper level pattern over CONUS characterized by fairly
progressive zonal flow over the northern states and southern
Canada. This was to the north of an east-west oriented upper level
high pressure system extending from the Desert Southwest across
Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. An upper level low
pressure system was tracking east through southern Canada early
this morning with a trailing shortwave trough southward into the
northern Plains. These features will continue eastward today. A
cold front was moving south through western Nebraska into
northeast Colorado early this morning. As the day continues and
the upper system continues east, the front will gradually move
south into central and western Kansas.

Ahead of the front, south to southwest winds are expected as a
surface trough moves east. A hot afternoon is expected with high
temperatures in the low 100s mainly toward south central Kansas.
Conditions still look favorable for heat indices to reach or
exceed 105 degrees so will keep the heat advisory intact.

As the front moves south today, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop along it. Have increased pops a little given
an uptick in MOS pops. This seems reasonable as the right entrance
of an upper level jet will provide some lift over the region this
evening. The front should move south of the forecast area tonight.
There will be some lingering chances for showers and thunderstorms
into Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

The upper flow pattern over the central High Plains become more
northwesterly by Thursday as the upper ridge retrogrades into the
central and southern Rockies. This pattern will support cooler
temperatures across western Kansas as a broad area of surface high
pressure extends from the Great Lakes into the central High
Plains. There will also be a nearly daily chance for showers and
thunderstorms. The GFS and Canadian models seemed to be suffering
from convective feedback through the Saturday night-Sunday night
time frame. After coordinating with surrounding offices, have
lowered pops across eastern Colorado and western Kansas that were
inflated by that signal. The northwesterly flow pattern will also
keep temperatures at or a little below seasonal normals through
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

West/Southwesterly winds will shift to the northwest early this afternoon
as a surface cold front crosses western Kansas. Northwest winds
should begin the 18z Taf cycle at Garden City with a wind shift
between 18z and 21z at Hays and Dodge City. Liberal wind shift is
expected between 21z Wednesday and 00z Thursday. Some ongoing
late morning elevated convection should be tapering off in the
Hays and Dodge City areas around 18z Wednesday, however scattered
convection will again be possible near and southeast of Dodge City
and Liberal after 21z. Models soundings indicating cloud bases
through early tonight will be at or above 5000ft AGL. Overnight
there will be improving chances for low MVFR or even IFR ceilings
as an area of low level moisture spreads into north central and
southwest Kansas. Confidence is not high on timing of these low
clouds or how low this stratus deck will be but based on the
latest guidance it appears that low clouds will begin to move into
the Hays area between 03z and 06z Thursday, Garden City and Dodge
City between 06z and 09z, and into the Liberal area between 09z
and 12z Thursday. Surface winds overnight will be north northeast
at around 10 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 101  69  85  66 /  30  50  30  20
GCK  96  68  83  65 /  20  40  30  20
EHA  94  67  83  65 /  30  70  40  50
LBL 101  69  85  67 /  30  50  40  40
HYS  97  68  85  64 /  40  30  10  10
P28 103  74  90  70 /  20  50  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ065-066-079>081-
089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Burgert


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