000
FXUS63 KDDC 230845
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AS EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS GRADUALLY ADVECTING INTO MY
COUNTY WARNING AREA ON THE HEELS OF AN EASTERLY WIND. SURFACES
PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO
AND COLORADO AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BEHIND A S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AND EASTERLY COMPONENT ALL DAY. STRATUS,
ALTHOUGH NO NECESSARILY LOW, WILL DEVELOP OR ADVECT INTO THE MY
AREA LIMITING SOLAR INSOLATION. THUS TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN PERSISTENT
IN DEVELOPING ELEVATED SHOWERS BY SUNRISE BUT NOTHING IS SUPPORTED
BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER, LATER IN THE DAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES AND AT LEAST SOME ISENTROPIC LIFTING OCCURS, THERE COULD
STILL BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. TONIGHT IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL IMPINGE ON KANSAS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SURGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGHS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
FRIDAY. BUT SOME MID LEVEL FLOW COMING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR LEE TROUGHING AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO KANSAS. WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES AND THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, WITH 2000-3000 J/KG CAPE AND STRONG
DIRECTIONAL TURNING, A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR HAYS TO THE UPPER 80S IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR EAST IT WILL PROGRESS. THE ECMWF IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
OTHER MODELS AND GENERALLY A LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS THE BEST
ONE. FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, MODERATE TO HIGH SURFACE BASED CAPE
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP EACH DAY ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT PROGGED TO BE THAT STRONG, SO
TORNADIC STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S SINCE
KANSAS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
OUGHT TO BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND THE
WARMEST LOWS SHOULD BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DEWPOINTS AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE HAYS AREA BY 10Z AND INTO GCK AND
DDC BY 12Z. AT THE SAME TIME A WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MOISTENING EASTERLY WINDS HAVE COMMENCED AND WILL BE
REINFORCED BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THERE WAS ALREADY
STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE SURFACE FLOW MOVES WEST INTO
HIGHER TERRAIN STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY
SUNRISE. INITIAL THINKING IS MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE REACHED AT HYS
BY 12Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN HIGHER AT DDC/GCK. I`VE LEFT PCPN OUT OF
THE TERMINALS FOR NOW BUT WILL WATCH FOR ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME
ACTIVITY BY SUNRISE AROUND HAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  56  80  63 /  20  30  20  30
GCK  70  57  81  63 /  20  30  20  30
EHA  75  58  86  61 /  20  30  40  40
LBL  73  60  85  64 /  20  30  20  30
HYS  70  54  76  62 /  20  30  30  30
P28  72  55  78  65 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HUTTON