Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 122144
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2013
...Updated short term section...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013
The longwave trough had dampened to a more zonal pattern across the
northeastern half of the CONUS today. A fairly substantial mid level
baroclinic zone remained across the eastern CONUS with 700mb
temperatures in the -20 to -25C range across the Great Lakes...to +3
to +5C across the Gulf Coast states. The lower troposphere was
warming up, as was seen on the 850mb analysis this morning, amidst
broad mid level height rises across much of the Great Plains. 850mb
temperatures were above 0C at UNR, LBF, and DDC. The downslope
warming was most pronounced across western Kansas with 850mb
temperature at DDC of +8C.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013
The upper low entering Arizona this afternoon will be moving out
across the southern Plains during the short term period. For
tonight, the main challenge will be whether fog will develop or
not...as some upper 20s to lower 30s dewpoints work north toward far
southwest/south central Kansas. Went ahead and put some areas of
fog in the grids east of a Hays-Dodge City line...in the area of
greatest forecast surface moisture advection from roughly 08-15Z.
Temperatures will likely bottom out in the mid to upper 20s before
slowly rising as clouds move in. The exception to this will be
across far west-central KS and the I-70 corridor where clear skies
will be observed much of the night with fairly light winds. Here,
temperatures will likely bottom out in the upper teens. The next
question becomes precipitation chances (and even type). Following
the ECMWF and the GFS models, the western edge of the precipitation
shield (starting sometime in the 09-12Z time frame) should reach as
far west as perhaps a Coldwater to Stafford line. Will put POPs
back in the forecast, but only slight chance for now. These may
need to be increased to Chance POPs as the event gets closer tonight
and we begin to see the white of its eyes. As the clouds and
precipitation approach, the temperature will be very close to 32F,
if not perhaps a degree or two below. This would obviously lead to
freezing precipitation, since the vertical temperature profile will
clearly favor liquid precipitation falling through a warm layer
aloft. In the grids, will carry rain OR freezing rain, but the
probability of rain appears higher than freezing as temperatures
slowly warm. By 15Z, confidence is high enough of temperatures
being above freezing that will just go with all rain. The 850-700mb
deformation zone will linger across the far eastern areas (Stafford
down to Kiowa) through perhaps early afternoon. Will slowly taper
off the POPs during the day. Northwest of a Liberal to Dodge to
Hays line, sunshine appears likely for much of the day, and
temperatures here should warm easily through the mid to upper 40s
(if not a few 50 degree readings).
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013
The upper level trough and surface low pressure system mentioned in
the short term will continue to shift into eastern Kansas and Mid
Mississippi Valley Friday night into Saturday morning. Wrap around
moisture from this system will allow clouds to remain across Central
and South Central Kansas with partly cloudy skies expected
elsewhere. Clear to partly cloudy skies are then expected throughout
the day Saturday with winds generally from a northerly direction.
Lows Saturday morning will generally be in the lower 20s with highs
Saturday ranging from the upper 30s across central Kansas to mid 40s
across far southwest Kansas.
Flow above the Central High Plains then shifts to the northwest
Sunday through Wednesday as an upper level trough positions itself
across the northeast United States and an upper level ridge
positions itself across the western United States. A few shortwaves
are progged to move southeast through this flow but only affect
southwest Kansas with a slight increase in clouds and wind direction
changes. Warmer temperatures are expected through this period with
highs in the 50s and lows in the mid to upper 20s. The warmest day
will be on Monday where a few places across far southwest Kansas
could reach closer to 60 degrees.
Models continue to suggest a strong upper level wave to move
from the Pacific Northwest into the Plains Thursday through this
weekend. If this verifies, well below normal temperatures and a
chance of wintery precip will be possible across the Central Plains
this weekend. However, this system is more than a week away so
changes in thinking of this system will most likely be made as
future model runs come in.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013
Light south winds will be found today at GCK and HYS with a weak
pressure gradient in place around the departing large surface high.
South winds will be a little bit stronger with some higher gusts
this afternoon at DDC, however gusts should not exceed 25 knots.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected to prevail as any low
stratus with an approaching upper low should remain east of the
southwest Kansas region.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 45 21 43 / 10 10 10 0
GCK 25 46 20 44 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 28 48 23 45 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 29 48 22 45 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 22 41 17 37 / 10 10 10 0
P28 30 46 22 39 / 20 20 10 0