Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271725
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ENHANCING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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