Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271712
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1112 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

AT 12Z TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WEST TEXAS
TO MONTANA AND A -20C 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. 60 TO 80 METER 500MB 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE LOCATED
JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THIS 500MB TROUGH. A 700MB RIDGE AXIS WAS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH THE 700MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM +1 AT TOPEKA TO +6 AT DODGE CITY AND +7C AT DENVER
AND AMARILLO. WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. DODGE CITY REPORTED 16C AT
12Z TUESDAY AND NORTH PLATTE HAD A 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +17C. AT
THE SURFACE A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE 00Z 500 MILLIBAR ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDED FROM
SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE A DEEP TROUGH WAS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. FARTHER WEST, A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
CALIFORNIA. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WAS NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT AS THE CALIFORNIA
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PHASES WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA. ONE MORE WARM DAY IS
IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WARM TEMPERATURES OFF THE
SURFACE WILL MIX DOWN AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 3-4 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS AFTERNOON THAN
MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
REACH 80 DEGREES. WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE WEST
BUT SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A
LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S.
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD SEE LOWER 40S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STAY UP
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
COLD FRONT PASSING DURING THE DAY. DESPITE THE DEVELOPING WEAK COLD
ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL STILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S. A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THIS UPPER
TROUGH PASSES OFF TO THE EAST.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES, CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
SLOW IN PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND SURFACE PRESSURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENCE OF
SEASONABLY COOL AIR DESPITE THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S AND THEN 20S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO ARIZONA BEFORE WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO BAJA BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER
SATURDAY, ENHANCING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST, COLDER AIR WILL PROGRESS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS BY SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN AN AIRMASS THAT IS NOT THAT COLD.
THEREFORE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2000 FT WILL PROBABLY BE AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING. THEREFORE, RAIN OR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE, ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE VERY UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES IN THE GRIDS FOR SUNDAY ARE PROBABLY TOO WARM AS LATEST
GEM/ECMWF MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST 20S/30S ARE MORE LIKELY FOR HIGHS.
DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES COULD CONCEIVABLY FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BASED ON THE 12Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
WHICH INDICATED ONLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SPREADING INTO
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z
WEDNESDAY TO 18Z WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL SHIFT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  37  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  76  35  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  40  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  76  35  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  77  36  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  74  40  73  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...GERARD



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