Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020449
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1149 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GIVEN A GENERAL LACK OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE LOW TODAY, EVEN ALONG THE OK/KS LINE WHERE THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP, THE LACK OF SHEAR  WOULD SUPPORT
STRONG PULSE TYPE STORMS. LOCAL GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS MODEST ON
SURFACE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND SURFACE WIND WILL QUICKLY
BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. A REPEAT OF THE FOG FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AS THE WINDS WILL PROVIDE
BETTER MIXING TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE WISE APPEARS TO BE MUCH OF A REPEAT OF TODAY, ALTHOUGH
DEW POINTS MAY DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES,
PROVIDING MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODELS
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BEING A FOCAL POINT FOR AFTERNOON DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN
CONVECTION WHICH COULD IMPACT THE I-70 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
ISOLATED STORMS, COULD EASILY FOCUSED MUCH FARTHER NORTH AS WELL
OR THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTION AS IT`S NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY GFS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS/PRECIPITATION FOLLOW IN THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME . MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS STORMS
OR AN ORGANIZED LINE FROM COLD POOL FORCING. THE CONVECTION WILL
OF COURSE COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS EARLY TO
MIDDLE 0ART OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER THE CURRENT MOS TREND WERE FOR
RISING ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR REPLACES THE COOLER MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. THEREFORE ANOTHER 100 DEGREE DAY IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY AROUND MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH THE TREND
TURNS QUICKLY COOLER AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDINESS THAT MAY
KEEP LOW STRATUS OR GROUND FOG FROM DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE BEST AREA FOR SOME GROUND FOG MAY BE IN THE KGCK AREA FROM
09-14Z IF SKIES CAN CLEAR. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT SOUTH TODAY, THEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  92  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66  92  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  67  91  67  86 /  20  10  10  20
LBL  68  93  69  86 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  68  96  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  93  71  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...KRUSE


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