Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191904
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
104 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

...Updated Fire Weather and Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

The quiet and dry November continues this afternoon, with
satellite imagery only showing a plume of cirrus clouds over
SW KS, originating from the Rockies. Surface high pressure is
located near Abilene, Texas, allowing strong return flow to
establish this afternoon. SW winds have already gusted to
33 mph here at office this hour, and similar gusty SW winds of
20-30 mph will continue through sunset. These SWly downslope
components, along with dry air and dry ground, will allow most
locations to reach the 60-65 range by 4 pm.

Tonight...Clear outside some passing cirrus, and once again
seasonably cold. The same dry air and dry ground will allow
temperatures to fall quickly this evening despite a persisting
SW breeze of 10-15 mph. Morning lows Monday morning will be near
normal for the time of year, in the 25-32 range.

Monday...Sunny and warmer. A splendid day on tap for late November
standards, with temperatures well above normal and tame winds. An
increase in 850 mb temperatures to the 15C range will deliver a
warmup, and the continued dry air/ground and downslope SW wind
will encourage a large diurnal swing. Followed the warmest
guidance with most locales ending up within a few degrees of
70 Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 104 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

The forecast remains dry, with no hope of precipitation through
at least Sunday November 26th. Stagnant synoptic pattern of a
polar low near Hudson Bay and an unseasonably strong upper ridge
near San Diego/Baja California will not change through this
weekend, and dry benign NW flow aloft will continue over Kansas.
Even dry cold frontal passages/wind shifts and temperature
flucuations will be lackluster, with cold Canadian air continually
being directed to the Great Lakes and NE U.S. One such dry cold
front will pass Tuesday morning with a period of extra clouds and
strong gusty north winds, followed by cooler lower to mid 50s
Tuesday. NE zones near Hays may struggle to reach 50 Tuesday, as
850 mb temperatures fall to near OC.

Wednesday, Thanksgiving, and Black Friday...Fantastic weather for
the holiday and travel. Winds will be light, and temperatures
will warm each afternoon, with Friday still expected to be the
warmest day in the 70s. Model blend max T grid for Friday may be
several degrees too cool, with pattern recognition suggesting
lower 80s across the SW zones. The record high at Dodge City for
November 24th is 80 set in 1990.

The next dry cold front expected Saturday morning is looking very
wimpy on the latest 12z ECMWF, with just a minor wind shift and
not as much cooling as offered by the extended model blend. ECMWF
builds the Baja California upper ridge eastward to near El Paso
next weekend, which would further deflect any cooler air away from
Kansas. ECMWF builds the ridge eastward into south Texas by Monday
November 27, with more mild and dry W/NW flow over Kansas. As the
ridge moves into the Gulf of Mexico, most models suggest this will
finally allow a trough to finally develop over the western U.S.
near the end of November.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR/SKC with only some passing cirrus at times, making for good
flying conditions through this TAF cycle. The only exception will
be SW winds midday through this afternoon, gusting in the 25-28
kt range. Winds will subside quickly after sunset, remaining 7-11
kts overnight. Pressure gradients will remain weak on Monday,
keeping SW winds near 10 kts or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 104 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

An elevated risk of wildfires will continue this afternoon through
sunset. SW winds will continue to gust to near 30 mph, as min RH
falls into the 15-20% range. With dry dormant vegetation, any
outdoor burning should not be attempted this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  29  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  25  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  60  32  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  62  30  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  61  29  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
P28  61  32  65  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Turner



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