Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CST THU MAR 03 2016

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...

This outlook applies to the Dodge City Hydrologic Service Area (HSA)
which includes the following rivers in southwest Kansas...

  - The Arkansas River from the Kansas-Colorado state line to below
    Larned, Kansas
  - the Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers in Trego and Ellis counties
  - the Walnut Creek in Ness and Rush counties
  - the Pawnee Creek and Buckner Creek
  - the Rattlesnake Creek and Crooked Creek
  - the Cimarron River and Medicine Lodge River

This outlook is valid from March 3rd through March 17th, 2016.

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give advanced
notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture,
snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued.
The vast majority of flood events in the Dodge City Service area
result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation...or
longer periods of excessive precipitation.

Over the past three months, average precipitation has run from around
normal to an inch and a half below normal along and west of Highway
83. Areas to the east of Highway 83 have received precipitation
amounts averaging from around normal to an inch and a half above
normal. Parts of central Kansas along I-70 have averaged around one
and a half to two inches above normal.

There is currently no snowpack across the service area. Snowfall this
season has been below normal. In Dodge City, the total snowfall for
the season has been 10 inches which is 5.5 inches below normal.

Over the past year, much of west central, south central and southwest
Kansas received above normal precipitation. Parts of southwest
Kansas, south of the Arkansas River, from the Colorado border to
south of Dodge City, saw average precipitation amounts ranging from
around 8 inches to over 12 inches above normal. Parts of central
Kansas received below normal precipitation where the deficit for the
year was by as much as 4 inches.

Soil moisture across western Kansas is consistently between the 80th
and 95th percentiles. This represents above normal conditions.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor Index (www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu)
issued March 1st, 2016 indicates that much of central and southwest
Kansas remains drought free. The exception to this is a small area of
Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions persisting in central Kansas. Another
area of Abnormally Dry conditions has developed in the past week over
far southwest Kansas from the Arkansas River near Syracuse and Lakin
to near Elkhart.

The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook
valid through May 2016 is calling for drought conditions to remain
unchanged. The eight to fourteen day climate outlooks from CPC are
forecasting above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

Colorado Rocky Mountain winter snowpack in the Upper Arkansas River
Basin is slightly above long term average conditions. The average
snowpack from USDA SNOTEL sites in the upper part of the basin is
roughly at 110 percent of average.

At John Martin Reservoir in southeast Colorado, current water surface
elevation is at 3842.15 feet which equates to storage of
approximately 236,564 acre-feet. The water surface elevation is
approximately 10 feet below the top of the conservation pool. The
conservation pool is approximately 69 percent filled.

At Cedar Bluff Reservoir in west central Kansas, the reservoir pool
elevation stands at 2119.3 feet or approximately 24.7 feet below the
top of the conservation pool and 46.7 feet from the top of the flood
pool. This has remained unchanged over the past two weeks. There is
abundant capacity for spring rains at Cedar Bluff Reservoir.

The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow conditions map
shows that streamflow across central and southwest Kansas is running
at below or much below normal levels. The exception in this area is
the Arkansas River upstream of Garden City, KS which has near normal
streamflow. Portions of the Smoky Hill River near Arnold in west
central Kansas are also running near normal.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding
that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than
HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/05/2016  - 06/03/2016

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Smoky Hill River
Arnold 12N           7.0    9.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Schoenchen 2E       11.0   14.0   17.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big Creek
Ellis               15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hays 2SSE           26.0   29.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Saline River
Wakeeney 5N         13.0   15.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Arkansas River
Coolidge             8.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Syracuse 1S         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Garden City         10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Dodge City          11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Kinsley 2E          12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Walnut Creek
Alexander 4W        31.0   33.0   35.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
NEKOMA              29.0   31.0   33.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Buckner Creek
Burdett 7W          16.0   21.0   25.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pawnee Creek
Burdett 7WNW        30.0   32.0   34.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pawnee River
Sanford             24.0   27.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rattlesnake Creek
Macksville 8SE       9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Zenith 10NNW        17.0   18.0   19.0 :   9    6    6   <5   <5   <5
:Crooked Creek
Englewood            6.5    8.0   10.0 :  20   11    9   <5   <5   <5
:Cimarron River
Forgan 8NNE          5.0    6.0    7.0 :   9   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Medicine Lodge River
Kiowa 2NE           10.0   12.0   13.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/05/2016  - 06/03/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Smoky Hill River
Arnold 12N            0.7    0.7    1.1    3.2    4.9    5.5    6.8
Schoenchen 2E         2.1    2.1    2.1    3.7    5.7    7.6    8.8
:Big Creek
Ellis                 9.4    9.4    9.4    9.4    9.7   10.5   11.0
Hays 2SSE             4.2    4.2    4.7    6.4    9.1   14.3   18.7
:Saline River
Wakeeney 5N           1.0    1.0    1.0    5.2    7.1   10.2   11.6
:Arkansas River
Coolidge              2.9    2.9    3.0    3.2    4.0    6.9    8.0
Syracuse 1S           4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.7    7.1    8.2
Garden City           5.7    5.7    5.7    5.9    6.5    7.2    7.4
Dodge City            6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    7.3    8.4    8.9
Kinsley 2E            5.6    5.6    5.6    5.7    6.8    7.7    8.9
:Walnut Creek
Alexander 4W          1.6    1.8    1.9    7.6   18.0   24.9   28.2
NEKOMA                6.3    6.4    6.6   14.6   21.4   26.6   28.2
:Buckner Creek
Burdett 7W            4.8    4.8    4.8    6.2   10.4   14.3   17.0
:Pawnee Creek
Burdett 7WNW          2.5    2.5    2.5    4.6   12.1   16.0   16.7
:Pawnee River
Sanford               5.7    5.7    5.9    7.2   10.9   14.1   15.9
:Rattlesnake Creek
Macksville 8SE        3.2    3.2    3.2    4.2    5.9    7.2    7.9
Zenith 10NNW         11.7   11.7   12.1   13.8   14.8   16.9   17.6
:Crooked Creek
Englewood             2.9    3.0    3.2    4.2    5.9    7.9    9.6
:Cimarron River
Forgan 8NNE           2.8    3.0    3.3    3.6    4.4    5.0    5.5
:Medicine Lodge River
Kiowa 2NE             0.8    0.8    2.1    3.9    5.8    8.8   10.5

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/05/2016  - 06/03/2016
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Smoky Hill River
Arnold 12N            0.5    0.5    0.3    0.3    0.3    0.3    0.3
Schoenchen 2E         2.1    1.5    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0
:Big Creek
Ellis                 9.4    9.4    9.4    9.4    9.4    9.4    9.4
Hays 2SSE             4.2    4.2    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5
:Saline River
Wakeeney 5N           1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Based on the above information, there is a normal risk of spring
flooding across the Dodge City Service area.

This will be the last Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook this
year.

Visit our web site weather.gov/ddc for more weather and water
information.

$$

Gerard








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