Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
140 PM CST THU FEBRUARY 20 2014


...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This outlook uses the term Dodge City Service Area (HSA) to refer to
the following rivers in southwest Kansas...

  - The Arkansas River from the Kansas-Colorado state line to below
    Larned, Kansas
  - the Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers in Trego and Ellis
    counties
  - the Walnut Creek in Ness and Rush counties
  - the Pawnee Creek and Buckner Creek
  - the Rattlesnake Creek and Crooked Creek
  - the Cimarron River and Medicine Lodge Rivers

This outlook is valid from February 20 through March 6, 2014.

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give advanced
notice of possible flooding.  They are based on soil moisture,
snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is
issued.  Outlooks are also based on normal future temperature and
precipitation.  Thus, if future conditions are not normal, then
actual crests will differ from this outlook.  The vast majority of
flood events in the Dodge City Service Area result from short
periods of higher intensity precipitation...or longer periods of
excessive precipitation.

Beneficial moisture has graced southwest Kansas throughout this
winter to the tune of 23.4 inches of snowfall thus far.  Although
significant moisture will be required this spring to erase the
effects of two years (or more) of drought, the snowfall this season
was well received.    However, the current U.S. Drought Monitor
reflects the longer-term deficiencies evident throughout southwest
Kansas.  No area of southwest Kansas is drought-free.  For a
detailed view of drought conditions across the U.S., visit the U.S.
Drought Monitor at: http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

The six to fourteen day climate outlooks offer above average
probabilities for below normal temperatures and below normal
precipitation.  See the NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks at
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Colorado Rocky Mountain winter snowpack in the Upper Arkansas River
Basin is slightly above long-term average conditions, the average of
14 USDA SNOTEL Sites situated in the Upper Arkansas River Basin
indicating that the snow water equivalent (SWE) is running 109% of
average.

Downstream at the John Martin Reservoir in southeastern Colorado,
the current water surface elevation stands at 3808.98 feet.
This current elevation equates to a storage of approximately 42,700
acre-feet. The water surface elevation is approximately 43 feet
below the top of the conservation pool, the conservation pool being
approximately 12% filled.  Thus, there is ample reservoir storage
for snowmelt from current snowfall in the Upper Arkansas River
Basin.

At the Cedar Bluff Reservoir in west central Kansas, the reservoir
pool elevation stands at 2118.82 feet, approximately 25 feet below
the top of the conservation pool...and 48 feet from the top of the
flood pool...providing abundant capacity for spring rains.

Currently, rivers in southwest Kansas are either ephemerally dry or
at extremely low flows.

Based upon the above, the chance of flooding due to snowmelt along
the Arkansas River downstream of John Martin Reservoir in southwest
Kansas is deemed below average.  At other river locations, the
chance of flooding due to snowmelt is also deemed below average.

$$

Sloan






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