Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2

000
FGUS73 KDDC 300437
ESFDDC
KSC007-025-033-047-051-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-097-101-
119-129-135-145-151-165-171-175-185-187-189-195-DDHHMM-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1136 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  8/30/2014 - 11/28/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
ARNOLD 12N           7.0    9.0   11.0 :  10   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SCHOENCHEN 2E       11.0   14.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG CREEK
ELLIS               15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
HAYS 2SSE           26.0   29.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SALINE RIVER
WAKEENEY 5N         13.0   15.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:ARKANSAS RIVER
COOLIDGE             8.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SYRACUSE 1S         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GARDEN CITY         10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DODGE CITY          11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
KINSLEY 2E          12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:WALNUT CREEK
ALEXANDER 4W        31.0   33.0   35.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
NEKOMA              29.0   31.0   33.0 :   6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BUCKNER CREEK
BURDETT 7W          16.0   21.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PAWNEE CREEK
BURDETT 7WNW        30.0   32.0   34.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PAWNEE RIVER
SANFORD             24.0   27.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:RATTLESNAKE CREEK
MACKSVILLE 8SE       9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ZENITH 10NNW        17.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CROOKED CREEK
ENGLEWOOD            6.5    8.0   10.0 :   8   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CIMARRON RIVER
FORGAN 8NNE          5.0    6.0    7.0 :   6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:MEDICINE LODGE RIVER
KIOWA 2NE           10.0   12.0   13.0 :   8    9    7    8    6    7

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 8/30/2014 - 11/28/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
ARNOLD 12N            1.5    1.6    1.6    1.7    4.7    7.0    8.4
SCHOENCHEN 2E         2.6    2.6    2.6    3.6    5.5    6.9    7.5
:BIG CREEK
ELLIS                 9.4    9.4    9.4    9.4    9.6   10.3   10.6
HAYS 2SSE             4.9    4.9    4.9    5.7    9.0   12.1   15.8
:SALINE RIVER
WAKEENEY 5N           2.5    2.5    2.6    2.6    4.3    7.4    9.4
:ARKANSAS RIVER
COOLIDGE              3.5    3.6    3.6    4.1    4.4    4.8    5.8
SYRACUSE 1S           4.5    4.5    4.5    4.7    4.9    5.4    6.0
GARDEN CITY           5.7    5.7    5.7    6.0    6.3    6.6    6.9
DODGE CITY            6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    7.7    8.1
KINSLEY 2E            5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6    6.5    7.3    7.6
:WALNUT CREEK
ALEXANDER 4W          7.3    7.3    7.3    7.7   15.5   20.9   29.6
NEKOMA               12.4   12.4   12.4   13.3   19.6   24.3   30.3
:BUCKNER CREEK
BURDETT 7W            4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    8.2   11.3   12.8
:PAWNEE CREEK
BURDETT 7WNW          3.0    3.0    3.0    3.8    7.4   11.0   15.7
:PAWNEE RIVER
SANFORD               5.7    5.7    5.8    6.4   10.0   12.5   14.3
:RATTLESNAKE CREEK
MACKSVILLE 8SE        3.2    3.2    3.3    3.9    5.7    7.0    7.5
ZENITH 10NNW         12.2   12.2   12.3   13.0   14.2   15.6   16.5
:CROOKED CREEK
ENGLEWOOD             3.5    3.9    4.1    4.4    5.6    6.4    6.8
:CIMARRON RIVER
FORGAN 8NNE           3.2    3.2    3.4    4.1    4.5    4.8    5.1
:MEDICINE LODGE RIVER
KIOWA 2NE             0.8    0.8    1.2    3.2    4.8    7.9   16.1

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/DDC FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END NEXT MONTH.

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.