Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FGUS73 KDDC 061450
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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
850 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...

This outlook uses the term Dodge City Service Area (HSA) to refer to
the following rivers in southwest Kansas...

  - The Arkansas River from the Kansas-Colorado state line to below
    Larned, Kansas
  - the Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers in Trego and Ellis
    counties
  - the Walnut Creek in Ness and Rush counties
  - the Pawnee Creek and Buckner Creek
  - the Rattlesnake Creek and Crooked Creek
  - the Cimarron River and Medicine Lodge Rivers

This outlook is valid from March 6 through March 20, 2014.

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give advanced
notice of possible flooding.  They are based on soil moisture,
snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is
issued.  Outlooks are also based on normal future temperature and
precipitation.  Thus, if future conditions are not normal, then
actual crests will differ from this outlook.  The vast majority of
flood events in the Dodge City Service Area result from short
periods of higher intensity precipitation...or longer periods of
excessive precipitation.

Beneficial moisture continues to grace southwest Kansas throughout
this winter to the tune of 28.1 inches of snowfall thus far.
Although significant moisture will be required this spring to erase
the effects of two years (or more) of drought, the snowfall this
season was well received.    However, the current U.S. Drought
Monitor reflects the longer-term deficiencies evident throughout
southwest Kansas.  No area of southwest Kansas is drought-free.  For
a detailed view of drought conditions across the U.S., visit the
U.S. Drought Monitor at: http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

The six to fourteen day climate outlook maps reflects a strong
temperature probability gradient across the state of Kansas.
Enhanced probabilites for above normal temperatures blanket western
Kansas, while higher probabilities for below normal temperatures
cover the eastern portion of the state.  A higher probability for
below normal precipitation is reflected in the outlook.  See the
NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks at
http://www.CPC.NCEP.noaa.gov.

Colorado rocky mountain winter snowpack in the Upper Arkansas River
Basin is slightly above long-term average conditions, the average of
14 USDA SNOTEL Sites situated in the Upper Arkansas River Basin
indicating that the snow water equivalent (SWE) is running 114% of
average.

Downstream at the John Martin Reservoir in southeastern Colorado,
the current water surface elevation stands at 3809.79 feet. This
current elevation equates to a storage of approximately 44,400
acre-feet. The water surface elevation is approximately 44 feet
below the top of the conservation pool, the conservation pool being
approximately 12% filled.  Thus, there is ample reservoir storage
for snowmelt from current snowfall in the Upper Arkansas River
Basin.

At the Cedar Bluff Reservoir in west central Kansas, the reservoir
pool elevation stands at 2118.70 feet, approximately 25 feet below
the top of the conservation pool...and 48 feet from the top of the
flood pool...providing abundant capacity for spring rains.

Currently, rivers in southwest Kansas are either ephemerally dry or
at extremely low flows.

Based upon the above, the chance of flooding due to snowmelt along
the Arkansas River downstream of John Martin Reservoir in southwest
Kansas is deemed below average.  At other river locations, the
chance of flooding due to snowmelt is also deemed below average.


In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  3/8/2014 - 6/6/2014

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Smoky Hill River
Arnold 12N           7.0    9.0   11.0 :   5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Schoenchen 2e       11.0   14.0   17.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big Creek
Ellis               15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hays 2SSE           26.0   29.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Saline River
Wakeeney 5N         13.0   15.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Arkansas River
Coolidge             8.0   10.0   12.0 :   5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Syracuse 1S         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Garden City         10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Dodge City          11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Kinsley 2E          12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Walnut Creek
Alexander 4W        31.0   33.0   35.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Nekoma              29.0   31.0   33.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Buckner Creek
Burdett 7W          16.0   21.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pawnee Creek
Burdett 7WNW        30.0   32.0   34.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pawnee River
Sanford             24.0   27.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rattlesnake Creek
Macksville 8SE       9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Zenith 10NNW        17.0   18.0   19.0 :   8    7    6    6   <5   <5
:Crooked Creek
Englewood            6.5    8.0   10.0 :  11   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cimarron River
Forgan 8NNE          5.0    6.0    7.0 :   5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Medicine Lodge River
Kiowa 2NE           10.0   12.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 3/8/2014 - 6/6/2014
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Smoky Hill River
Arnold 12N            0.6    0.6    0.7    3.8    5.2    6.1    7.1
Schoenchen 2e         2.2    2.2    2.3    4.2    5.9    7.6    8.8
:Big Creek
Ellis                 9.4    9.4    9.4    9.4    9.7   10.3   10.8
Hays 2SSE             4.5    4.5    4.6    7.1    9.7   14.3   18.7
:Saline River
Wakeeney 5N           2.5    2.5    2.6    2.9    7.0   10.2   11.3
:Arkansas River
Coolidge              2.7    2.8    2.9    3.1    4.0    6.8    8.0
Syracuse 1S           3.5    3.5    3.6    3.8    4.8    7.0    8.3
Garden City           5.4    5.4    5.4    5.9    6.4    7.1    7.6
Dodge City            6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    7.3    8.5    8.7
Kinsley 2E            5.5    5.5    5.5    5.6    6.4    7.8    8.5
:Walnut Creek
Alexander 4W          2.1    2.1    2.2    7.4   16.5   22.0   26.5
Nekoma                6.5    6.6    6.9   14.6   20.5   23.7   27.8
:Buckner Creek
Burdett 7W            4.6    4.6    4.6    4.7    8.5   12.3   13.4
:Pawnee Creek
Burdett 7WNW          2.5    2.5    2.5    4.0    6.4   12.0   13.0
:Pawnee River
Sanford               5.6    5.6    5.8    6.5    9.2   12.1   13.0
:Rattlesnake Creek
Macksville 8SE        3.8    3.8    3.8    4.5    6.1    7.1    7.8
Zenith 10NNW         12.5   12.5   12.6   13.4   14.1   16.7   17.9
:Crooked Creek
Englewood             3.4    3.6    3.8    4.9    5.8    6.6    7.5
:Cimarron River
Forgan 8NNE           3.2    3.2    3.4    3.6    4.0    4.5    5.1
:Medicine Lodge River
Kiowa 2NE             1.1    1.4    2.7    3.5    4.8    6.9    7.9

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/ddc for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued toward the end of the month.

$$

SLOAN





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