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000
FXXX12 KWNP 100031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels following a pair of C1.0 flares. The
first was at 09/0353 UTC and originated from an area of plage near
N11W62. The second occurred at 09/2211 UTC from Region 3634 (N27E40,
Axx/alpha), which was also responsible for several higher B-class flares
as well. A new spot was observed near N10E30, but remains unnumbered at
this time given its age and lack of activity. Regions 3628 (N08W14,
Cho/beta) and 3633 (S07E30, Dso/beta-gamma) remained the largest and
most magnetically complex regions on the visible disk, respectively, but
were relatively stable and quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels through 10 Apr.
Activity will likely increase on 11-12 Apr with the anticipated return
of old AR 3615, bringing a chance for M-class flare activity.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at
normal to moderate levels through 11 Apr with a chance for high levels
to be reached on 12 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected likely CIR and then weak, positive
polarity CH HSS onset. Total field values increased to a peak of 9 nT
early in the UTC day before relaxing somewhat to 7 nT. During the time
of enhancement, the Bz component deflected southward reaching -8 nT.
Solar wind speeds exhibited an increase beginning at approximately
09/1125 UTC reaching a peak near 480 km/s by the end of the period. Phi
was predominantly positive with a few, brief excursions into a negative
solar sector.

.Forecast...
Enhanced disturbances in the solar wind environment are anticipated to
continue through 10 Apr due to ongoing positive polarity CH HSS
influences. Enhancements are likely to begin to wane over the course of
11 Apr with an ambient-like environment returning on 12 Apr.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 10 Apr due to weak
positive polarity CH HSS effects. A return to quiet to unsettled
levels are expected on 11 Apr as CH HSS effects begin to wane with
mostly quiet levels prevailing on 12 Apr.