Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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077 FXUS63 KDLH 102013 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 313 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance of rain and thunderstorms departs this evening, some stronger storms possible before then. - Chilly night tonight with Frost Advisories in portions of the Arrowhead, and then a warm weekend with a chance for rain showers Saturday night into Sunday and then some afternoon thunderstorms Sunday in NW WI. - Very dry afternoon relative humidity expected both Saturday and Sunday, especially across NE MN. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A stout little shortwave is moving across the Northland this afternoon, throwing rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the area. A more stout cold front has led to some gusty northwest winds upwards of 40mph along the edge of showers with other sporadic gusty winds falling out of most thunderstorms. Steep low level lapse rates have led to a widespread blossoming of convective showers and thunderstorms behind the main low pressure system, which will likely produce pea sized hail with low freezing levels. Wind will be the primary threat out of thunderstorms with efficient momentum transfer of higher winds down to the surface, up to 50mph. The chance of severe winds of 60mph+ is around 20%, mostly along the I-35 corridor and eastward. Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate this evening as daytime heating cools off and the low pressure system pushes to the east. We should see clearing skies with light northwesterly flow overnight, allowing temperatures to come back down. Have issued a Frost Advisory for portions of inland portions of the MN Arrowhead. Some guidance also suggested cooler temperatures for portions of NW WI, but have held off on any headlines in that area for now due to clouds lingering slightly longer there. Speaking of the cloud cover forecast, we generally expect good clearing overnight, especially by the time (just after midnight to very early morning) that peak northern light intensity is expected. Some partly cloudy skies may linger over the very tip of the Arrowhead in Cook County and over Iron County on the South Shore. Into the weekend, some slight ridging will allow for a large boost of warm air bringing temperatures in the 60s and 70s Saturday and Sunday. Saturday afternoon should be sunny, warm, and dry with ample mixing up to near 750mb. Relative humidities could fall to around 25-30%, with locally lower amounts down to 20% posisble. Winds shouldn`t be too strong Saturday, but slightly higher winds in north-central Minnesota could lead to near critical fire weather conditions. A quick shortwave moves across Saturday night into Sunday, which should bring some light rain showers. Ensembles show precipitaiton amounts trending down for this impulse at most sites across the Northland, so it will likely just be a light dampening that folks wake up to Sunday morning. As this impulse sweeps southeastward there could be some redevelopment of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over NW WI. Over NE MN however conditions will likely be fairly dry by Sunday afternoon, allowing another day of deep mixing to plummet relative humidities with strong northwest winds. Should humidities and winds forecast trends continue, a Red Flag Warning may be needed in north-central and northeast Minnesota. Through next week, additiaonl disturbances may bring passing chances of rain and thunderstorms, but no signals at this time for anything particularly significant. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Mostly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Some periods of MVFR visibilities possible with passing rain showers this morning and afternoon. Some scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, the strongest of which would likely be around HYR with strong gusty winds possible. Rain showers and thunderstorms dissipate and move east this evening with clearing skies overnight. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Strong northwesterly winds this afternoon will calm overnight, leaving fairly benign conditions on the lake through midday Sunday, with northwest to southwest breezes, strongest in the afternoon. Sunday, stronger northwest winds increase through the day. However, with warm temperatures on land in the 60s and 70s, the strongest winds up to 25 knots will likely only be felt closest to shore, and primarily along the North Shore. A short period of time on Sunday afternoon may warrant a Small Craft Advisory before winds calm into Sunday evening and become northeasterly through Monday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ011-012- 019. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ142>145. && $$ DISCUSSION...Levens AVIATION...Levens MARINE...Levens