- Warnings
- Observations
- Forecasts
- Text Messages
- Forecast Models
- Climate
- Weather Safety
- Education/Outreach
- Information Center
- Contact Us
RSS Feeds
Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
000
FGUS73 KEAX 291655
ESFEAX
MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095-
101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-010000-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Kansas
City/Pleasant Hill MO 1100 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024
...2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...
This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Kansas River,
Missouri River, and their tributaries, in northeast Kansas and
northern Missouri.
...Below normal flood potential through May along the Missouri River
from the Iowa border through Boonville...
...Tributaries which typically flood during the spring months will
likely experience minor to moderate flooding...
Outlook:
Through May, the probability of flooding along the Missouri River
from the Iowa border to Boonville is roughly 25 to 40 percent lower
than normal.
Spring minor flood probability values along the Missouri River from
the Iowa border downstream to St. Joseph, Missouri range from 20 to
30 percent. The stretch of the river from Leavenworth, Kansas
through Kansas City has a 10 to 20 percent chance of minor flooding
through May. Further downstream, Napoleon through Boonville show
probabilities of exceeding flood stage ranging from 50 to 55 percent.
Minor flooding is likely across tributary creeks and rivers which
typically experience flooding each spring. In addition, the
following basins have greater than or equal to 50 percent
probability of reaching moderate flood category: Upper Stranger,
Crooked, Wakenda, Grand from Chillicothe through Sumner, Blackwater,
and Big. All of these basins frequently experience moderate flooding
each spring.
Recent Conditions:
The majority of the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA received below
normal precipitation the past 30 days. Most locations north and east
of a line from Atchison, Kansas through Kansas City, Missouri to
Sedalia, Missouri received less than 25 percent of normal
precipitation. Liquid precipitation amounts ranged from less than a
tenth of an inch across northwest Missouri to around an inch and a
half across east-central Kansas. The bulk of the region received
between a tenth and half inch during the past 30 days. During the
past 90 days, the vast majority of the local region received above
normal precipitation. Over half of the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA
received between 125 and 150 percent of normal precipitation.
30-day mean temperature values ranged around 40 across far northern
Missouri to the middle 40s from east-central Kansas into central
Missouri. These values were 9 to 12 degrees above normal. For the
past 90-Day period, mean temperatures were also above normal with
values ranging 3 to 6 degrees warmer than average.
Present Conditions:
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates around 80 percent of the
Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA is experiencing at least abnormally
dry conditions. In addition, around 10 percent of the HSA is
affected by moderate drought. Looking at the entire Missouri Basin,
around 65 percent of the basin is experiencing at least abnormally
dry conditions with roughly 25 percent reporting at least moderate
drought, and 7 percent severe drought.
Minimal snow cover is present across the local region. In addition,
much below normal snowpack is common across the northern Plains and
mountainous areas of the upper Missouri Basin.
7-Day streamflow values across the local region indicated below
normal streamflow conditions were increasing in coverage during the
past two weeks.
Future Conditions:
7-Day forecast precipitation amounts are expected to be less than a
quarter inch with above normal temperatures likely. The outlook for
the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern favoring above normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation.
Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear signal
regarding temperature for the local area. The greatest likelihood of
above normal temperatures will be across the northern third of the
United States. The precipitation outlook slightly favors above
normal amounts across the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA.
The final spring flood outlook will be issued on March 14.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Delaware River
Muscotah 27.0 28.0 36.0 : 34 43 26 33 <5 <5
:Stranger Creek
Easton 17.0 18.0 23.0 : 81 90 68 71 9 9
Tonganoxie 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 57 66 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Kansas River
De Soto 26.0 33.0 36.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Turner Bridge KCK 41.0 47.5 54.0 : 5 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
23rd Street KCK 33.0 54.0 55.0 : 18 26 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Missouri River
St Joseph 17.0 21.0 27.0 : 28 73 16 45 8 11
Atchison 22.0 27.0 30.0 : 21 62 10 23 8 15
Leavenworth 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 18 50 10 19 7 9
Parkville 25.0 28.0 35.0 : 13 36 9 18 <5 8
Kansas City 32.0 35.0 49.0 : 14 14 8 11 <5 <5
Napoleon 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 52 80 16 26 6 10
Waverly 20.0 29.0 31.0 : 55 80 15 21 11 12
Miami 18.0 28.0 29.0 : 56 82 15 23 13 14
Glasgow 25.0 27.0 32.0 : 55 77 47 75 15 26
Boonville 21.0 30.0 34.0 : 54 79 14 18 5 8
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 17.0 18.0 25.0 : 47 74 46 72 26 48
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 23.0 28.0 35.0 : 6 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:102 River
Maryville 18.0 23.0 28.0 : 16 37 9 11 <5 <5
Rosendale 18.0 18.1 23.0 : 23 49 22 48 7 7
:Platte River
Agency 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 65 85 38 59 6 7
:Little Platte River
Smithville 27.0 30.5 35.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Platte River
Sharps Station 26.0 29.0 33.0 : 48 69 37 59 16 30
Platte City 20.0 25.0 29.0 : 62 79 33 48 14 28
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 35.0 39.0 48.0 : 27 29 8 8 <5 <5
Bannister Road Ka 34.0 40.0 42.0 : 14 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
71 Highway Kansas 27.0 36.0 38.0 : 20 21 <5 <5 <5 <5
63rd Street Kansa 26.0 33.0 37.0 : 21 23 <5 <5 <5 <5
Colorado Avenue K 31.0 36.0 37.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Stadium Drive Kan 33.0 39.0 43.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
17th Street Kansa 33.0 36.0 38.0 : 7 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
12th Street Kansa 30.0 35.0 40.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Little Blue River
Lake City 18.0 25.0 27.0 : 40 38 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Crooked River
Richmond 20.0 21.0 29.0 : 61 81 56 76 <5 <5
:Wakenda Creek
Carrollton 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 62 68 53 58 16 20
:Blackwater River
Valley City 22.0 25.0 31.0 : 79 90 68 81 24 29
Blue Lick 24.0 29.0 37.0 : 91 94 49 57 8 9
:Lamine River
Otterville 15.0 18.0 26.0 : 56 65 37 53 8 8
:Moniteau Creek
Fayette 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 69 81 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Petite Saline Creek
Boonville 16.0 19.5 26.0 : 56 67 43 56 <5 <5
:Thompson River
Trenton 27.0 31.0 34.0 : 32 45 13 14 6 6
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 25.0 30.0 32.0 : 38 65 30 55 21 40
Gallatin 26.0 33.0 39.0 : 44 62 10 25 7 8
Chillicothe 24.0 28.0 35.0 : 64 77 49 65 29 38
Sumner 26.0 28.0 40.0 : 80 84 78 82 8 8
Brunswick 19.0 27.0 33.0 : 59 77 18 29 10 9
:Chariton River
Novinger 20.0 23.0 26.0 : 31 39 23 27 14 17
Prairie Hill 15.0 19.0 21.0 : 58 68 29 34 17 17
:South Grand River
Urich 24.0 26.0 33.0 : 63 64 35 43 <5 <5
:Big Creek
Blairstown 20.0 23.0 36.0 : 92 93 87 83 <5 <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 28.0 45.0 48.0 : 44 45 <5 <5 <5 <5
La Cygne 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 60 60 39 43 <5 <5
Trading Post 27.0 29.0 40.0 : 41 47 34 43 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah 6.4 9.3 13.7 20.5 28.2 29.1 30.9
:Stranger Creek
Easton 11.8 15.6 17.4 20.4 21.4 22.9 24.3
Tonganoxie 9.0 13.0 17.9 23.1 25.3 25.8 28.0
:Kansas River
De Soto 7.4 8.1 10.7 13.1 18.9 23.6 27.0
Turner Bridge KCK 9.0 11.7 14.0 20.9 27.6 36.7 41.7
23rd Street KCK 14.1 16.0 17.6 22.9 28.8 37.6 42.8
:Missouri River
St Joseph 7.9 8.3 11.3 14.3 17.6 23.0 29.3
Atchison 10.5 11.0 15.1 18.0 21.3 26.8 31.7
Leavenworth 5.1 5.5 9.3 12.7 17.4 23.6 30.4
Parkville 10.1 11.0 15.3 17.4 20.5 27.1 33.6
Kansas City 12.9 14.7 16.3 20.4 24.9 33.0 39.3
Napoleon 10.4 12.0 13.2 17.4 21.1 28.0 31.4
Waverly 13.9 15.6 16.8 21.3 24.5 31.2 31.6
Miami 11.1 13.3 15.1 20.5 24.1 29.3 30.2
Glasgow 14.9 18.2 21.2 26.2 29.9 36.6 40.2
Boonville 10.9 14.4 17.5 23.1 26.7 32.3 33.9
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 5.6 9.5 11.4 16.0 25.1 28.3 29.3
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 4.0 7.7 9.9 11.5 13.9 19.6 23.5
:102 River
Maryville 6.8 11.3 12.0 13.9 16.5 22.4 25.7
Rosendale 3.2 10.4 13.3 15.3 17.7 21.5 23.2
:Platte River
Agency 8.4 16.9 19.0 23.1 25.9 27.9 30.2
:Little Platte River
Smithville 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.6 19.1 22.4 26.5
:Platte River
Sharps Station 13.2 18.3 21.4 25.7 31.7 33.6 35.1
Platte City 10.1 15.4 18.2 20.8 26.0 29.6 31.2
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 26.7 27.0 28.7 32.0 35.5 38.6 40.2
Bannister Road Ka 8.3 9.8 13.8 21.5 28.7 34.9 36.9
71 Highway Kansas 7.3 9.1 13.5 19.2 24.6 30.2 32.5
63rd Street Kansa 10.6 12.2 14.7 19.2 24.7 29.3 32.2
Colorado Avenue K 10.2 11.6 14.2 18.2 22.3 26.7 29.7
Stadium Drive Kan 9.3 10.9 14.9 19.4 26.7 29.1 32.7
17th Street Kansa 13.1 15.1 18.5 22.3 28.7 30.9 33.9
12th Street Kansa 9.0 10.8 13.7 16.9 24.2 26.3 29.1
:Little Blue River
Lake City 5.5 6.7 8.6 16.5 20.7 23.9 24.2
:Crooked River
Richmond 8.2 14.5 18.0 21.7 24.4 26.7 27.1
:Thompson River
Trenton 11.1 14.6 17.8 22.9 27.6 31.5 34.6
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 2.3 3.8 11.6 19.1 31.5 36.2 43.6
Gallatin 3.9 5.7 15.6 23.1 31.3 33.1 41.3
Chillicothe 6.0 9.7 20.3 27.5 38.1 39.9 41.3
Sumner 10.6 15.3 29.8 32.6 37.3 38.9 42.3
Brunswick 6.5 12.0 17.5 20.1 25.1 32.4 38.9
:Chariton River
Novinger 1.3 3.6 10.1 15.1 22.4 27.3 29.7
Prairie Hill 4.0 7.6 12.1 15.7 19.6 22.2 23.9
:South Grand River
Urich 11.3 14.9 21.3 24.7 28.4 28.8 30.9
:Big Creek
Blairstown 16.6 22.9 23.3 24.1 26.0 27.1 27.3
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 15.0 15.5 21.7 25.9 33.9 36.7 38.3
La Cygne 9.3 10.6 20.0 27.6 32.8 33.6 34.0
Trading Post 10.6 12.0 18.9 25.5 34.6 37.6 38.5
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/02/2024 - 05/31/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:Stranger Creek
Easton 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.3 1.1
Tonganoxie 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5
:Kansas River
De Soto 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8
:Missouri River
St Joseph 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3
Atchison 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
Parkville 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1
Kansas City 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3
Napoleon 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8
Waverly 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9
Miami 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2
Glasgow 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9
Boonville 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1
:Tarkio River
Fairfax 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6
:102 River
Maryville 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2
Rosendale 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:Platte River
Agency 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7
:Little Platte River
Smithville 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1
:Platte River
Sharps Station 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3
Bannister Road Ka 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
71 Highway Kansas 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3
63rd Street Kansa 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9
Colorado Avenue K 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4
Stadium Drive Kan 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6
17th Street Kansa 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7
12th Street Kansa 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
:Little Blue River
Lake City 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0
:Crooked River
Richmond 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.3 5.3
:Thompson River
Trenton 8.7 8.4 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
:Grand River
Pattonsburg 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Gallatin 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Chillicothe 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0
Sumner 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6
:Chariton River
Novinger 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Prairie Hill 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
:South Grand River
Urich 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:Big Creek
Blairstown 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
La Cygne 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2
Trading Post 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water
information.
$$
SAW
- National Weather Service
- Dodge City, KS Weather Forecast Office
- 104 Airport Road
- Dodge City, KS 67801-9351
- 620-225-6514
- Page Author: DDC Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: w-ddc.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: Sep 19th, 2023 19:10 UTC