197
AXPZ20 KNHC 112153
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat May 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2135 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to a 1011 low pres near
10N98W and to 08N111W. The ITCZ continues from 08N111W to beyond
05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
present north of 02N and east of 92W. Similar convection is also
noted from 05N to 14N and between 95W and 110W, and from 02N to
08N and between 111W to 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The region remains under the influence of a broad subtropical
ridge located well NW of the Mexican offshore waters. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to fresh NW
winds are occurring in the offshore waters of Baja California.
Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, including the Gulfs
of California and Tehuantepec, satellite-derived wind data show
light to gentle winds. Slight to moderate seas are prevalent in
the area described.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will
prevail off the Baja California waters through the middle of next
week. Northwest swell will maintain seas to near 7 ft tonight
into early Sun before gradually subsiding to 6 ft or less
through early next week. Seas will build again to near 7 ft in
the far NW waters by midweek. Gentle to locally moderate winds
and moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the open offshore
waters of Mexico through the middle of next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Latest satellite imagery show scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms affecting the nearshore and offshore waters of
Central America and NW Colombia, especially north of 02N and
east of 92W. Scatterometer data indicate that fresh to strong
winds are found with the strongest storms. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds are found south of the monsoon trough and light
to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell is
producing seas in the 5-7 ft range between Colombia and the
Galapagos Islands, with seas of 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S-SW winds are expected
south of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week.
Southerly swell moving through the regional waters will support
seas of 6-7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands through early Mon.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail with moderate seas
of 6 ft or less.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad subtropical ridge centered well north of the area forces
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds from 06N to 22N and west
of 115W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to occasionally
fresh southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found south of the
monsoon trough / ITCZ and between 96W and 125W. The satellite-
derived wind data also depict strong winds associated with the
strongest convection. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds and moderate seas are
expected in the trade wind zone N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W
of 120W through Sun, before seas subside slightly through early
next week.

$$
Delgado