Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211507
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Mar 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N77W
to 04N98W. The ITCZ continues from 04N98W to 06N110W, and then
from 04N118W to beyond 02N140W. A trough extends from 01N116W to
08N111W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 02N to 09N between 92W and 107W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the area. This is supporting
gentle to moderate northerly winds off the Baja California waters
with seas 4 to 6 ft. Gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted
across the rest of the Mexico offshore waters, except in the Gulf
of California, where seas are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
will prevail through the rest of the week across the Mexico
offshore waters. A cold front will approach the Baja California
offshore waters by Sat, then cross into the Gulf of California by
Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across
the Baja California offshore waters with rough to very rough seas
this weekend into early next week. Fresh to strong winds can
be expected in the northern and central Gulf of California Sat
night through early next week with rough seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh NE to E gap winds are present across the Gulf of Papagayo,
due to a combination of local drainage effects and a relatively
tight gradient related to high pressure north of the area.
Moderate winds are also noted in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere,
winds are light to gentle and seas are slight to moderate. A
trough extends across the Ecuador/Galapagos Islands offshore
waters from 03S86W to 02N92W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted
within 100 nm of the trough, impacting the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support pulses of fresh to locally strong northeast to east
winds in the Papagayo region through Fri with seas to 6 ft.
Moderate winds will also pulse across the Gulf of Panama through
Fri. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will persist
elsewhere through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A trough extends across the eastern Pacific high seas from
16N140W to 25N136W. No significant convection is noted with this
feature at this time. Meanwhile, broad surface ridging is in
place over the area N of 15N. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
N of the ITCZ to 18N, where seas 6 to 8 ft are noted. Gentle
breezes elsewhere N of 20N to 31N under the influence of the
ridge. Light to gentle winds are noted south of the ITCZ. Seas
range from 5 to 7 ft across the Pacific waters.

For the forecast, the trough will weaken today. Shorter period
wind waves created by moderate to fresh winds along and north of
the ITCZ and W of 110W will mix with the longer period NW swell
propagating across the region. This will create seas around 8 to
9 ft in the area of moderate to fresh trade winds into early next
week. By tonight, a cold front will move east of 140W, then push
eastward through the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will
become fresh to strong winds behind the cold front Sat through
Sun. Seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the front through the weekend,
with seas to 12 to 14 ft possible by Sun.

$$
Konarik


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