031
FXUS64 KEPZ 050531
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1131 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

We will continue to be warm and breezy to low-end windy each
afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

A s/w trough is moving through Western NM this afternoon. For our
CWA it`s pushing some high clouds through portions of the area as
well as fostering some breezy afternoon winds. A boundary moved
into portions of the area this morning bringing with it an
increase in moisture, but it has since retreated. Only the central
and eastern portions of the Sacramento Mountains remain within
this boundary as denoted by cumulus clouds. We have seen a few
showers develop over Northeast Otero Co, but with little
consequence. A very slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm
will persist through evening there.

The aforementioned boundary will make another push through the CWA
overnight and into the morning, reaching to roughly the Rio
Grande. It will quickly retreat back to the east leaving us dry
and breezy to windy once gain by tomorrow afternoon. The
breeziest winds will be along and west of the Rio Grande. No wind
headlines are planned, but we do have a red flag in place for our
New Mexico fire zones. The weather changes little Sunday through
Thursday albeit with some variations in day-to-day wind speeds.
This is because we will remain at the base of a long-wave trough
with short-waves passing to our north, which will keep persistent
lee troughing in place to our east. Near critical to critical with
occasional extreme fire danger will be the main impact. Winds
nudge down a little by Thursday, and by Friday, guidance suggests
moisture will try and nudge in from the east. We shall see if that
holds as models have persistently forecast a moist intrusion in
the 6 to 9 timeframe only for it to never really materialize.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

VMC through forecast period under strengthening southwest flow
aloft. Skies mainly SKC-FEW250. Surface winds SSE 120-180
overnight east of the Rio Grande where a moisture boundary exists,
remaining SW 220-260 AOB 08 knots across southwest New Mexico.
Winds increasing again Sunday afternoon, especially across western
New Mexico. 210-240 at 10 to 20 knots with the gusts to 30 knots
likely at KTCS mid afternoon. Low confidence in blowing dust
impacts, but worth monitoring midday tomorrow for any visibility
reductions.

&&

30-Dennhardt

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

Daily NEAR CRITICAL to CRITICAL fire concerns expected through
Wednesday.

Beginning with tonight and into Sunday, an easterly push is
forecast to move through at least the eastern half of the CWFA or
roughly the Rio Grande. How ever far west this air mass can pass
will bring good overnight recoveries with many locations above 50
percent east of this boundary. Regardless, this air mass will
retreat east during the afternoon hours allowing min RH values to
drop well into the single digits. Winds will be breezy to windy
again, topping out 15 to 25 MPH with the strongest winds along and
west of the Rio Grande. A Red Flag Warning is in place for all New
Mexico zones though conditions are a bit more marginal for Zones
112 and 113, largely due to lower wind speeds. Vent rates will be
excellent.

For Monday onward, winds each afternoon through Wednesday will
top out around 20 MPH with min RH values falling into the single
digits. Thus, we will continue to see critical fire conditions for
much of the area. The geography of strongest winds will shift some
for Monday leaving the Gila with more marginal Red Flag
Conditions. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect. Tuesday and
Wednesday will continue with critical conditions as winds top out
near or over 20 MPH. There is some uncertainty on which day will
feature the strongest winds between Tuesday and Wednesday. Latest
data show Tuesday as a bit windier. Either way, expect more red
flag warnings and fire weather watches to cover the Tuesday and
Wednesday period with subsequent updates. Winds are presently
forecast to decrease sufficiently for Thursday and Friday to
alleviate critical weather concerns. Additionally, moisture may
try and push in for Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  60  90  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            52  85  56  83 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces               53  89  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               52  85  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               40  63  42  58 /  20   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    52  85  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              48  78  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   49  88  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                49  86  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       57  87  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                52  89  52  86 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             53  92  54  89 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               52  81  54  79 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   54  90  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             52  86  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           57  86  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            50  86  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    49  88  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 54  88  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                53  84  53  81 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  42  75  48  71 /  20   0   0   0
Mescalero                43  74  46  71 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 40  73  43  69 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  44  78  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                48  83  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                47  85  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             44  78  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   44  81  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    48  84  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               49  79  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  47  80  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   49  86  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  51  86  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           49  86  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               48  79  47  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ110>113.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson