Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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402 FXUS64 KEPZ 302341 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 541 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Warm and breezy conditions will continue for the next seven days. Winds will be breeziest for Wednesday and then again Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Zonal flow continues across the Desert SW, which is keeping us warm and modestly breezy this afternoon. An U/L trough will sharpen for Wednesday with its parent low across far Southern Canada. This position places the main jet stream well to our north. We will have a lee low that forms over NE NM / far SW CO to help pack surface pressure gradients, but wind will be mainly forced at the lower levels. Thus, it will be breezy but not particularly notable. The main impact will be a few areas of dust and elevated fire danger. Flow becomes quasi-zonal in the wake of Wednesday`s system. A trough axis hangs up to our west, which will gradually sharpen as a large UL drops down the West Coast toward this weekend, making our flow more SW`LY. The UL pattern will not have much impact on our weather through Saturday, but winds will begin to increase for next Sunday and Monday as the trough approaches and then passes on Monday. Euro is farther north and weaker with Monday`s passage than the GFS, but examining NBM probabilities, odds favor a solution more in line with the GFS. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VMC through forecast period under dry southwest flow aloft. Skies SKC overnight and Wednesday. Surface winds 240-280 at 05-10 knots overnight, increasing to 15 to 20 knots Wednesday afternoon. Peak gusts up to 25 knots across southern NM mid-afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Very dry air is expected to remain in place through the entire period with afternoon min RH values ranging 5 to 10 percent in all but the highest elevations. 20-foot winds will top out 15 to 20 MPH during the afternoon placing the area in ELEVATED to NEAR CRITICAL conditions. Winds have decreased slightly since yesterday`s forecast update, so will continue with the special weather statement rather than a red flag warning. Winds will subside some for Thursday and then even further for Friday. Winds will begin to increase for Sunday and Monday. It is a bit early, but present forecast shows critical fire concerns return on Monday to much of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 61 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 57 84 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 55 88 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 53 86 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 63 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 55 86 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 48 76 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 50 86 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 84 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 49 89 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 53 90 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 55 81 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 55 89 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 62 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 51 85 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 50 87 49 87 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 56 86 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 53 84 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 77 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 46 74 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 44 73 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 46 78 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 49 83 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 48 84 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 43 76 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 45 79 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 82 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 49 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 48 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 49 84 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 84 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 49 83 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 77 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt