Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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045 FXUS64 KEPZ 071132 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 532 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024 Quiet weather will persist through much of the period. There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend for the mountains and areas east of the Rio Grande. The winds will be breezy to windy through the middle of the week before becoming light to breezy toward the end of the week. The temperatures will be above the normal in the lowlands through Wednesday, but will cool to below the normal the latter half of the week and throughout the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024 Currently, the winds are light to breezy with mostly clear skies and the temperatures on the mild side. For today, the conditions will be similar to that of yesterday, dry and breezy to windy. With dry conditions and a westerly flow, there will be a chance for patchy blowing dust across the lowland areas near the International Border as well as around the White Sands area. The skies will be sunny with the high temperatures in the afternoon above the normal in the lowlands and vice versa in the mountains. For tonight, quiet weather will continue as we will be under a flat ridge. The winds will gradually subside by around late evening. With this ridge in place, the low temperatures on Wednesday morning will be above the normal for must of the area. For the rest of the work week, the daily winds will gradually decrease each consecutive day through Friday while the temperatures cool to below the normal. This is because of a change with the flow in the winds as low develops across the Southwest. This upper level low will continue to meander across the California. As a result, some long range models are hinting at showers moving across the mountains and the eastern portions of our CWA mainly east of the Rio Grande. However, as of now, this is only a slight chance for showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. For the rest of the period, quiet weather will persist as this low opens up into a wave and gradually moves across the Southwest and into the Plains. The winds are expected to be light to breeze with the temperatures warming to above the normal by early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with SKC. The winds will be generally light and out from between the southwest and the northwest until around 16Z. The winds will be mainly out from the west, but will become breezy to windy (16 to 22 kts) with gusts up to 32 kts through 03Z. The winds will subside thereafter. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024 Dry conditions will continue today. The 20ft winds will be breezy to windy and the temperatures above the normal in the lowlands and below the normal in the mountains. Tonight recovery will be poor to fair. For Wednesday, similar conditions are expected. However, the min RHs will slightly increase. The 20ft winds will continue to breezy to windy and the temperatures similar to that of today. Wednesday overnight recovery will be fair to good. For the rest of the period, the winds will decrease as the moisture gradually increase especially in the mountains and areas east of the Rio Grande. Toward the end of the period, there maybe a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across zones 113, 056 and parts of 112. Due to this, critical to extreme fire conditions are expected today through Wednesday with conditions becoming elevated to near critical the rest of the period. The min RHs today will be below 15% areawide. The min RHs on Wednesday will be below 15% in the Lowlands and between 14 and 18% in the mountains. The ventilation rates will be excellent for the same period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 89 61 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 83 57 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 87 53 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 83 51 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 60 41 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 85 51 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 73 45 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 85 48 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 83 48 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 86 57 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 87 54 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 90 57 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 80 54 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 89 58 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 85 52 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 85 59 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 83 49 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 85 50 85 48 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 85 55 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 83 52 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 73 48 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 71 44 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 70 43 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 75 43 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 80 48 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 83 46 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 74 42 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 78 43 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 80 46 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 75 46 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 77 46 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 85 48 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 85 51 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 83 51 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 79 48 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for TXZ055-056. NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira