Spot Forecast Issued by NWS
000
FNUS74 KEPZ 120207
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Gattons Park Rx...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
807 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on April 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Short term forecast shows continued dry and warm through Sunday with
afternoon breezes. Very low min humidity will keep fire danger elevated.
Stronger winds combining with these low humidities on Monday could cross
over into critical fire conditions. Temperatures will warm to well
above normal through Sunday.
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 17 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in
the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......10900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 22 mph increasing to around 27 mph
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (19900 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
(214100 knot-ft) in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........13 9 8 8 18
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1
Temp............51 61 68 73 74
RH..............24 23 18 14 13
20 ft wind......SE 6 S 9 S 13 S 13 S 15
20 ft wind gust.10 20 26 26 28
Mix hgt (ft)....1500 9600 9600 10900 10900
Transport wind..SE 14 S 22 S 22 S 27 S 27
Haines index....4 4 4 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..20 214 214 284 284
Ventrate Cat....POOR EXNT EXNT EXNT EXNT
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
around 28 mph shifting to the west around 5 mph
after 3 am.
Mixing height.......11100 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 24 mph shifting to the west
around 11 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (266500 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(6200 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........35 35 4 3 3 3
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............70 58 52 49 45 42
RH..............15 23 28 32 36 43
20 ft wind......SW 15 SW 15 SW 14 W 10 W 10 W 5
20 ft wind gust.28 28 26 21 21 12
Mix hgt (ft)....11100 11100 600 600 500 500
Transport wind..SW 24 SW 24 W 17 W 17 W 11 W 11
Haines index....5 4 4 4 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..267 267 9 9 6 6
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 10 to 14 mph with
gusts to around 23 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Mixing height.......8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 11 mph increasing to 22 to 27 mph
in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (32400 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
(152500 knot-ft) in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........3 5 10 10
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............40 53 65 71
RH..............48 32 19 13
20 FT wind......W 3G7 W 7G18 SW 12G20 SW 13G23
Mix hgt (ft)....2700 2700 7200 8000
Transport wind..W 11 W 11 W 22 W 27
Haines index....3 4 3 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..32 32 153 183
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR EXNT EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Southwest winds around 11 mph.
.MONDAY...
Cooler. Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs around 60.
Southwest winds around 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds
around 11 mph.
$$
Forecaster...HEFNER
Requested by...Maurice Cruz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410435.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Maurice.cruz@usda.gov