Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
000
FXUS62 KFFC 222334
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
734 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Key Messages:
- Widespread rain showers this evening will transition to more
scattered activity on Saturday.
- Expect rain totals of 0.75 to 1.50 inches through Saturday
morning.
Through Saturday Evening:
A shortwave trough and its associated surface low continue to
produce lift and widespread precipitation across Georgia this
afternoon. The majority of the precipitation was ongoing along and
north of a warm front draped across the central part of the state.
No lighting has been noted in central or northern Georgia thus far
today. With the 12Z HREF suggesting 250-750 J/kg of MUCAPE in
central Georgia tonight this trend could end with a couple of
isolated rumbles of thunder overnight. Severe weather is not
anticipated due to the anemic nature of the CAPE profiles. Rain
totals of 0.75 to 1.50 inches are expected by sunrise Saturday.
A cold front will move into the region Saturday and push through the
region by Saturday evening. A couple of the CAMs have been trying to
develop a weak surface low along this boundary, and this could (20%
chance) help drive a couple isolated thunderstorms in east central
Georgia Saturday afternoon. In general though the majority of the
area should see a few morning showers and gradually clearing skies
as Saturday progresses. Though winds will be breezy from the north
on Saturday, any CAA looks modest. Thus our high temperature
forecast for Saturday ranges from the low 60s in northwest Georgia
to the lower 70s in east central Georgia.
Albright
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Dry and sunnier weather returns for the latter half of the weekend
on Sunday amid ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface. While
high clouds will begin to increase on Monday, the forecast will
remain dry. High temperatures may be slightly cooler as compared to
Sunday as the transient CAD wedge is reinforced on Monday.
Meanwhile, the next cold front will be progressing eastward toward
the area from Monday night into Tuesday as the associated surface
low lifts quickly from the Plains into the Great Lakes region. PoPs
will be on the increase from west to east on Tuesday as the cold
front pushes into the area. Surface CAPE still appears limited,
though sufficient in the presence of strong bulk shear to maintain
the inclusion of thunder in the forecast. The threat for any
stronger storms will be dependent on the degree of destabilization
during this time frame.
Beyond Tuesday, uncertainty still remains concerning how quickly the
front and associated precipitation will clear east of the area.
While model tendencies broadly support a drying trend by Wednesday,
chance PoPs still linger through Wednesday night, especially for
eastern portions of the area, to account for this uncertainty.
Temperatures will broadly remain near seasonal norms through the
coming week.
RW
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Expect widespread IFR/LIFR to settle in after the main rain shield
pulls off to the northeast. A wind shift to the W side is expected
tomorrow morning and could end up an hour or two earlier than
currently forecasted. Winds will also be gusty and frequent gusts
up to 20-25mph will be possible. Cigs should begin to improve to
MVFR during the late morning with VFR by late afternoon.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.
NListemaa
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 54 67 37 66 / 100 30 0 0
Atlanta 55 66 38 66 / 50 30 0 0
Blairsville 49 60 30 66 / 100 30 0 0
Cartersville 52 64 33 68 / 70 30 0 0
Columbus 58 69 41 69 / 30 30 0 0
Gainesville 53 67 37 65 / 100 30 0 0
Macon 58 69 42 68 / 50 30 0 0
Rome 53 65 34 69 / 60 30 0 0
Peachtree City 54 67 36 67 / 40 30 0 0
Vidalia 61 72 46 66 / 70 40 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...NListemaa