868
FXUS63 KFGF 011722
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1222 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic bouts of rain continue for the next 7 days, with the
  next one set to arrive tonight, continuing through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Satellite imagery indicates decent coverage of cumulus across
the region, likely due to low level moisture lingering. A mostly
clear area (a drier low level airmass) is slowly propagating
into the region from the southwest. Temperatures and other
forecast parameters on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 935 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Water vapor imagery indicates the shear axis continues to
propagate northward, with assumed decent spreading across our
region. This will lead to clearing sky, although unsure the
coverage of potential cumulus formation. At any rate, forecast
on track and no impacts today.

UPDATE
Issued at 543 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The main band of precipitation is lifting into southern Canada,
with diminishing light rain along/north of highway 2. Cloud
cover is also decreasing over south central North Dakota, so
decreasing clouds still look to be on track for today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The current rain event is slowly winding down. Most of its
lingering effects will be across northwest Minnesota through mid
morning. This brought a widespread rainfall of at least a
quarter inch, with a few spots around 0.75 inch just south of
the Devils Lake region. The lightest amounts (a few hundredths
so far) have been along the Canadian border from Pembina toward
Langdon. The surface low at 2 am was located between Bemidji
and Park Rapids, pretty close to the position of the 700mb wave.
As this wave lifts into southwest Ontario this morning, the
rain will slowly taper off. There will be a bit of break until
the next system arrives tonight. During this pause between
systems, the big question is whether the sun will show itself.
Current guidance shows that most of the area should see at least
a few hours of sun, although it may take most of the day to get
to the Lake of the Woods region.

As mentioned above, the next round of rain arrives tonight west
of the Red River Valley, covers the entire FA on Thursday, and
may linger along/north of the highway 2 corridor Thursday night
into Friday. At this time yesterday, it had appeared like there
would be two areas of precipitation tonight into Thursday, one
over central and eastern North Dakota and the other brushing our
west central Minnesota counties. In between these areas,
basically from the southern Valley up into northwest Minnesota,
it had some interconnected lighter rain. Now it appears the two
areas could be more distinct, with not much in between. There
may even be some question whether anything will brush our west
central Minnesota counties. The most likely area for rain seems
to be over central and eastern North Dakota, where the forcing
is concentrated around the 700mb low and the upper jet. The NBM
probs for 0.25 inches of rain or more reflect this too, showing
70 percent values across the Devils Lake region, tapering to 40
percent across far southeast North Dakota into the adjacent
area of west central Minnesota. Probabilities for 0.50 inches or
more are around 40 percent for the Devils Lake region.

At this time yesterday, it looked like another round of
precipitation was possible across the far southern FA Friday
night into Saturday morning. Now this looks less likely,
reflected in the precipitation chances dropping to 20 percent
across the far southern Valley into west central Minnesota.
Precipitation amounts have scaled back to almost nothing now.
Brief 500mb ridging does inch up into the Northern Plains Sunday
into Monday. Should see at least some sun these days with highs
in the mid 60s to mid 70s. The next round of precipitation then
arrives Monday night and could linger through Wednesday, as a
closed 500mb low ejects out into the Northern Plains, and tracks
through very slowly. With much better agreement seen in the
ensembles for this period, precipitation chances have generally
risen to likely chances (60 percent), with about a 50 percent
probability for amounts of 0.25 inches or more. If this trend
continues, precipitation chances should continue to rise, as
should amounts. With these systems, we have generally been
seeing widespread 0.25 inches, all the way up to 0.75 inches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A few cumulus decks are near 3000 feet, but anticipate cloud
bases to rise to VFR early afternoon. VFR conditions with gusty
westerly winds this afternoon, with winds becoming light and
variable this evening. The next system of concern will be
spreading into the region tonight with most areas at least MVFR
on Thursday along with periods of light rain.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/TG
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...TG