Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271506
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1006 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Weather Advisory continues through mid morning for
  the Lake of the Woods region for minor impacts from light
  snow.

- There is a low chance (20 percent) for minor impacts due to
  snow and freezing rain on Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1006 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The Winter Weather Advisory has been allowed to expire, as while
snow is still occurring, conditions are expected to improve into
the afternoon in our northwestern Minnesota counties. Otherwise,
forecast remains on track.

Issued at 557 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Light snow continues across northwest Minnesota, with the
lowest visibility (1 1/4 mile) at Baudette. Other spots are
generally running in the 3 to 5 mile range. The light snow will
continue around the Lake of the Woods region today, but only
minimal additional accumulations are expected. The clearing is
already progressing into areas west of the Red River Valley.
Winds are in a bit of a lull right now, but should become brisk
again by mid morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The Mayville radar has been showing thin bands of steadier snow,
which are now drifting south and east of the Grand Forks area,
centered more from Crookston to just east of the Fargo-Moorhead
area. These seem like more unorganized convective streamers, where
visibilities are wide ranging. Have not seen anything too bad,
generally above a mile and half. Other than this area, a broad area
of light snow remains across northwest Minnesota. Water vapor
imagery shows a nice swirl centered around the F-M area, pushing
into Minnesota. Deformation around the 500mb low today should keep
light snow lingering across northwest Minnesota (mainly the Lake of
the Woods region) through the day, and potentially into this evening
as well. West of the Red River Valley, satellite imagery shows some
cloudy and some clear patches, so it looks like the Red River Valley
with be on the fringe today between cloudy skies to the east and
sunshine to the west. Today looks like the last windy day associated
with this low pressure system, with the strongest winds across the
northern half of the FA. Still have a Winter Weather Advisory out
for the Lake of the Woods region through mid morning, and see no
reason to adjust that at this point.

Surface high pressure will finally begin to nose into the FA
tonight, which will result in decreasing winds and clouds. Lows
tonight will depend on how fast the winds and clouds decrease.
Slightly lower temperatures should be found across the new snowpack,
which is mainly across southeast North Dakota into adjacent areas of
west central Minnesota. Thursday looks to be a sunny day with light
winds. However, highs will again be cooler across the recent snowier
areas.

There are a couple of precipitation chances in the longer term, one
Friday into Friday evening and the other late Sunday into Monday.
Both events look fairly weaker, so any precipitation that falls
would not very much, but could be impactful depending on the
precipitation type. For the Friday into Friday evening event, the
main 700mb low stays well north of the FA, basically over central
Saskatchewan, while a weaker lobe pushes from southwest to northeast
across North Dakota. There is also transient warm advection and a
thin band of 700mb frontogenesis. The NBM shows about a 50 percent
probability of 1 inch or more of snow across the Devils Lake region
into the northern Red River Valley, while probabilities for amounts
greater than 4 inches drop to less than 10 percent. There may be a
bit of a warm tongue to keep an eye on as well, with 925mb
temperatures flirting with the 0 to +1C line along and south of the
F-M area. Model soundings show the potential for some light freezing
rain and the NBM shows about a 20 percent probability for amounts
greater than 0.01 inches (mainly south of the F-M area). So will
have to keep an eye on this. For the Sunday into Monday event, the
primary 500mb low will be over the desert southwest, but a weaker
northern stream wave may also cross southern Canada. Southwest flow
sets up, and at the moment, the main energy from the southwest low
appears to eject out into the plains mainly to the south of the FA.
There is always a lot of uncertainty with wave interactions for
these events, and it is still 4 to 5 days out. Something to watch,
but so far it does not look too impactful.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 557 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The light snow is pretty much done now at KDVL/KGFK/KFAR, but
will continue into mid morning at KTVF, and most of the day at
KBJI. Northwest winds will become gusty again by mid morning,
continuing through the afternoon, before dropping quickly this
evening. Clearing already is pushing into eastern North Dakota,
but will take until much later for KTVF/KBJI.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/AH
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Godon


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