353
FXUS65 KFGZ 031027
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
327 AM MST Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions are expected today with breezy
afternoon winds. Winds increase on Saturday, peaking on Sunday,
and remaining gusty through the start of the wee. Temperatures
will dip a bit on Sunday and Monday but warm back up for the
middle of the week. A few showers may cross the Kaibab Plateau on
Sunday. Otherwise, it looks pretty dry through the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Warm and dry conditions will continue for today before
we start to see the effects of a deep upper low tracking towards the
Great Basin. Seasonably warm temperatures across the region with
southwest winds gusting up to 20-25 mph through the afternoon.

A deep upper level low will track across the Pacific northwest and
digs southward into the Great Basin by late Saturday. Ahead of this
low we will see winds start to increase with gusts on Saturday
around 25-35 mph. Conditions will remain dry on Saturday with near-
seasonable temperatures.

As we move into Sunday, the low will be crossing the Great Basin
and should pass to the north of our area. Even though this low has
limited moisture associated with it by the time it reaches our
area, there may be enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers
across the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday and possible over the higher
elevations of the Chuska Mountains. Most areas will remain dry as
the low moves through. Temperatures take a dip on Sunday, falling
around 5-10 degrees below normal.

The main impacts from this low will be the winds. The gradient
tightens up quite a bit and there is the potential for winds to gust
around 40-50 mph, possibly higher to the east of Flagstaff. As far
as headlines go, winds may remain just below advisory levels on
Saturday but Sunday looks like it will be more widespread advisory
level winds with the potential for some spots to hit warning
criteria. Will hold off on any headlines with this package and let
let the next shift get a better handle on where the strongest winds
may occur. Stay tuned for updates on the winds!

With the strong winds and dry conditions, it will raise the
potential for near critical fire weather concerns. The most likely
areas will be across northeastern Arizona where RH values will drop
below 15% during Sunday afternoon. The limiting factor may be the
fuels but definitely something else to keep our eyes on.

As the low passes to the north and east, we should see better
conditions return through the week. Winds will remain breezy on
Monday with cooler temperatures still hanging around the region.
Temperatures will moderate and warm slightly as we go through the
week with winds dropping off and just the typical afternoon breezes
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 03/12Z through Saturday 04/12Z...VFR conditions
with SCT-BKN mid-level clouds are expected throughout today. Winds
will be out of the west-southwest, 10-20 kts, from 17Z-02Z,
becoming light and variable thereafter.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 04/12Z through Monday 06/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions persist through the period. Anticipate mostly clear
skies on Saturday, followed by SCT-BKN clouds on Sunday. Periods
of MVFR VIS due to blowing dust are highly likely at KINW-KSJN-
KRQE for Sunday afternoon. Expect southwest winds, 25-30 kts, on
Saturday with even stronger southwest winds, sustained 25-35 kts
and gusts of 40-55 kts on Sunday. Minor to moderate turbulence is
likely on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Mild and dry conditions persist
for today and Saturday with high temperatures roughly 5 degrees
above average and widespread minimum humidity of 10 to 20%. An
increasing trend of southwest winds will develop and continue
through Saturday. Expect gusts of 15 to 30 mph for this afternoon,
followed by 25 to 35 mph on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Southwest winds become strong on Sunday
with widespread gusts of 40 to 55 mph. Areas prone to downsloping
winds, including along and directly east of the Mogollon Rim, White
Mountains, and across portions of the Navajo Nation, will experience
even stronger winds of 60+ mph for much of the day. Areas of
critical fire weather conditions are likely on Sunday, especially
across northeast Arizona, where minimum humidity of 15% is forecast.
The winds decrease by Sunday night, remaining breezy 20 to 35 mph
from the west for Monday and Tuesday afternoon`s.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff