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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 131123
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
423 AM MST Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A passing low pressure system will cool our
temperatures and increase our winds through Monday. Slight chances
for precipitation remain in the forecast on Monday. For the rest
of next week, very warm temperatures along with sunny skies and
light winds are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A low pressure system currently located off the
coast of California will move east in the coming days. As it does
so, south and west winds will strengthen in northern Arizona and
temperatures will cool. There is general agreement among the model
guidance that the 500 mb height minima will swipe northern
Arizona Sunday night into Monday. Conditions should be favorable
enough for a few showers to develop along and north of the
Mogollon Rim as this occurs. However, moisture is lacking, so
little if any accumulations are expected. Temperatures will be
cool enough to facilitate snowfall over the high elevations, but
the strength of the April sun will be enough to assuage daytime
travel concerns. For most people, the clouds, virga, cool
temperatures, and wind will be the most memorable part of Monday`s
weather.

Winds will generally increase each day through Monday as the
pressure gradient tightens ahead of the incoming system. Today
looks merely breezy, with south and southwest winds gusting 20 to
30 mph in most areas. Tomorrow, southwest winds will gust 25 to 35
mph. Expect a few gusts past 40 mph downslope of the high
terrain. On Monday, southwest and west winds will peak, gusting 30
to 40 mph. Many locations along and downslope of the high terrain
will gust past 40 mph on Monday. We will continue to monitor this
potential; a Wind Advisory may be warranted. As the system passes
to the east by Tuesday, the pressure gradient over northern
Arizona will relax. Much lighter winds are forecast Tuesday
through the end of next week.

As high pressure builds over Arizona following the low pressure
system`s departure, the warmest temperatures of the year so far
are forecast. During the second half of next week, afternoon
temperatures will push 70 degrees along the Mogollon Rim and 90
degrees in the low elevations of Yavapai County. It will certainly
feel like a taste of summer. Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 13/12Z through Sunday 14/12Z...VFR conditions
expected. S-SW winds 10-20 kts gusting 20-30 kts after 16Z. Winds
gradually diminish after 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 14/12Z through Tuesday 16/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected. S-SW winds gusting 25-35 kts after 16Z/Sun,
becoming lighter SW-W on Monday. Increasing cloud cover with ISO
showers after 06Z-12Z Mon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Dry, mild, and windy conditions
continue through Sunday. S-SW winds with gusts 25-30 mph today,
increasing to 30-40 mph on Sunday. Afternoon RH values will drop into
the 15-20% range, resulting in near critical fire weather
conditions.

Monday through Wednesday...Cool temperatures Monday with isolated to
scattered showers during the afternoon. Gusty W-NW winds 30 to 40
mph. Drier and warmer conditions return for Tuesday and Wednesday.
West winds will continue through Wednesday, with the usual
afternoon breezes.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Benji
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff