163
FXUS64 KFWD 052236
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
536 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across portions
of Central Texas this afternoon as expected. Although this area is
already saturated from recent heavy rain, the spotty nature,
duration, and movement of the storms should keep impacts from
additional rainfall to a minimum. This activity will weaken with
the loss of heating and dissipate by mid evening. We will include
some slight chances PoPs beyond sunset to account for any
lingering showers/storms.

The remainder of the forecast is in good shape with fog developing
overnight and more storms possible on Monday afternoon (see
discussion below for details).

79

Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday Night/

Weather Highlights:

- A few storms possible this afternoon across Central Texas
- Patchy fog overnight
- Late morning-early afternoon showers and storms in East Texas.
- An isolated severe storm or two possible across North Texas
  (west of I-35) late tomorrow afternoon.

Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies have been in place throughout much
of the region. The one exception has been across the Brazos
Valley, where subsidence from the morning MCS had kept clouds at
a minimum until recently. A northward moving moisture boundary,
evident by the sharp increase in dew points, will continue its
northward migration through the rest of this afternoon. Although
there`s plenty of instability at this time, there`s some question
as to whether the developing storms across I-10 will hamper storm
development in our area. If a storm does manage to develop, small
hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Any storms this
afternoon will quickly dissipate after sunset, setting the stage
for patchy fog across much of our region.

By Monday morning, any patchy fog will dissipate with low clouds
lingering through around noon. High temperatures tomorrow will be
5-8 degrees warmer compared to today given continued south flow.

With moisture from the Gulf of Mexico streaming in, warm air
advection showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon. Although
MUCAPE will be fairly high (~3000 J/Kg), an elevated thermal
inversion will help keep the updrafts from tapping into the
elevated instability and precipitation should remain below the
capping inversion.

Later tomorrow afternoon, a shortwave will be advancing eastward
into the Southern Plains as a dryline sharpen just west of our
area. Strong southwesterly 850mb flow will help keep the cap in
place much of the afternoon. If the cap weakens enough, there is a
low potential a storm develops across western North Texas
tomorrow afternoon. *IF* a storm develops, comparative analogs
suggest the environment is volatile enough to produce very large
hail. There is a high potential that storms do not develop,
however, on the off chance that they do, they will quickly become
severe.

Any storms tomorrow will gradually dissipate after sunset,
leaving behind dry conditions the rest of the night. Monday night
temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s throughout much of the
region. The one exception will be in the far northwest, where a
cold front will be moving in and temperatures in the upper 50s can
be expected.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 205 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024/
Update:

No major changes were made to the long term forecast with only a
few adjustments to PoPs and temperatures through the middle of
next week. An unsettled pattern will continue through Wednesday
and Thursday with potential for showers and thunderstorms
remaining across portions of North and Central Texas, primarily
along and east of the I-35 corridor. There will be a low chance
for isolated instances of severe weather across this area on
Wednesday, primarily for a large hail, damaging wind, and flash
flooding threat. Additional potential will exist on Thursday as
well, but confidence in the spatial distribution of thunderstorms
is not terribly high at this time. Because of this, a broad-stroke
inclusion of low PoPs remains necessary until details can be
further refined with hi-res model guidance in the coming days.

Temperatures will be on the rise through the middle of the week,
with afternoon highs reaching into the low 90s across Central
Texas. Coupled with dew points in the low to mid 70s, heat indices
will quickly approach the 100 degree mark. It will be important
to start considering heat safety precautions as this brief stretch
of late-spring heat kicks into gear. While we won`t be hitting
any heat product criteria (thankfully), this initial adjustment to
the heat could cause some issues with our more vulnerable
population. This will not last long however as a strong cold front
sweeps in across the region, bringing temperatures down to
seasonal normals and allowing for a stretch of dry weather through
the upcoming weekend. For more details, please see the previous
discussion below and continue to check back for updates.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Next Week Through Mother`s Day Weekend/

By Tuesday, an occluded vertically stacked low will be present
over the Northern Plains with zonal flow stretching across the
Central CONUS. At the surface, a trailing cold front will begin
to sweep across western Kansas and Oklahoma while a dryline
lingers near the Texas Panhandle. In response to additional
pressure falls in the lee of the southern Rockies, surface winds
will veer to the southwest on Tuesday. A byproduct of the warm/dry
advection in the 850-700mb layer, temperatures will climb above
climate normals Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat
indices will be nearing 100 degrees across portions of Central
Texas each afternoon. This bout of late spring heat will be brief
however, as a favorably timed shortwave trough and nearby
dryline/cold front will bring additional storm chances and cooler
post-frontal air to the region mid to late week.

On Wednesday, strong diurnal heating/destabilization coupled with
forcing for ascent (from a combination of low-level convergence
and larger-scale ascent attendant to the passing shortwave) will
result in convective development along the dryline. Additionally,
the cold front moving through southeastern Oklahoma may become
another focus for convective development Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Forecast soundings east of the projected dryline position
(near the I-35 corridor) indicate the presence of strong
instability and deep layer shear. This environment will be
favorable for severe weather with a threat for large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

This unsettled pattern will linger through Thursday as a second
shortwave moves overhead while the cold front continues to slowly
sag southward into Central and Southeast Texas. A few strong to
severe storms cannot be ruled out. In the wake of the departing
upper trough and surface cold front, surface ridging will amplify
over the Central CONUS Friday and Saturday bringing a seasonable
but dry start to Mother`s Day weekend with highs in the mid 70s.
Our next chance of precipitation may not be too far off however,
as a weak shortwave trough approaches from the west on Sunday.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

A weak front will lift slowly north of the D10 this evening with
light southerly flow returning. Scattered to broken afternoon Cu
will dissipate with the loss of heating but stratus will return
late this evening/overnight with an increasing low level jet.
MVFR ceilings will likely reach Waco between 04 and 06Z (slightly
later across the Metroplex TAF sites). Ceilings will fall to near
or just below 1000 ft overnight/Monday morning, especially in
Waco. Some patchy fog/mist is also expected due to saturated
ground and relatively light wind. Stratus and fog will begin to
lift through the morning Monday, eventually scattering by
afternoon.

A few showers or storms will be possible in Waco through sunset,
with all activity dissipating by mid-evening. We do not
anticipate any storms to make it as far north as the Metroplex
TAF sites, but the southeast cornerpost will see some impacts.

A south to southeast wind will prevail tonight and Monday morning at
speeds less than 12 knots. Wind speeds will increase Monday
afternoon in the 12 to 16 knot range along with some higher gusts.

Some storm development on the dryline is expected Monday afternoon
but this should be well removed from D10 airspace staying to the
northwest and north.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  84  71  88  72 /   5  20  10   0   5
Waco                68  82  71  88  71 /  10  20   5   5   5
Paris               64  81  70  86  70 /  10  20  30   5  10
Denton              65  83  68  87  70 /   5  20  20   0   5
McKinney            65  81  69  87  70 /   5  20  20   0   5
Dallas              68  84  71  89  72 /   5  20  10   0   5
Terrell             66  81  70  86  71 /   5  20  20   0   5
Corsicana           68  84  71  88  73 /  10  20  10   5   5
Temple              68  83  71  88  71 /  10  10   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       66  84  66  88  70 /   5  20   5   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$