009
FXUS63 KGID 302015
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
315 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a slight chance (around 20%) of thunderstorms this
  afternoon across far eastern and northeastern portions of the
  forecast area. These storms may become severe.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase (up to near 70%
  during the afternoon) on Wednesday areawide with storm chances
  increasing up to 95% Wednesday night.

- There is a 20% to 30% chance of strong to severe storms during
  the day Wednesday but much higher chances (up to around 70%)
  Wednesday evening and night.

- After today, high temperatures will mostly be in the 60s and
  70s and low temperatures in the 30s to 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper trough is over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains
and extends southward over the Central Plains. A cold front is
pushing through south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas from the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of this cold front this afternoon into this
evening as it moves southeastward. Most models are showing the
convection developing east of the forecast area, but there is about
a 20% chance of storms developing across the far eastern and
northeastern part of the forecast area later this afternoon. Any
storm that develops will have the potential (60% to 70% chance) to
become severe given fairly high CAPE, wind shear, and instability.
Gusty northwest winds are present behind the front with temperatures
in the 60s and 70s. A surface high will be present across the area
tonight with fairly light winds. Low temperatures will range from
the low 40s to low 50s.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

Showers and thunderstorms may develop across mainly north central
Kansas into far south central Nebraska Wednesday morning as the cold
front lifts northward a bit and interacts with an upper level
disturbance. Widespread severe storms are not expected with this
activity but a few strong to severe storms will be possible (about a
20% to 30% chance). An upper trough to the west will move closer to
the region Wednesday afternoon further increasing the upper level
lift. There is uncertainty as to whether the activity during the
morning and early afternoon hours will be strong to severe. Lift
from the upper trough will increase across the area Wednesday night
with the stalled front receiving a push southeastward. This will
likely result in a complex of storms moving across the forecast area
Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. The threats with these
storms will be large hail, damaging winds, localized flash flooding,
and a low tornado threat. High temperatures Wednesday will be in the
mid 60s to low 70s. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the
mid 40s to mid 50s.

Thursday through Monday night...

Lingering showers and storms are possible (up to a 50% chance)
mainly east of Highway 281 Thursday morning. The rain and storms are
expected to be out of the area Thursday afternoon. Winds will be
gusty out of the northwest Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon
as the colder air pushes through the area. High temperatures
Thursday are expected to be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Winds will
weaken during the evening hours with partly cloudy to mostly clear
skies overnight. Low temperatures Thursday night are expected to
drop into the mid 30s to mid 40s. Winds will increase out of the
south to southeast on Friday as an upper trough covers the northern
and central Plains. High temperatures on Friday are expected to be
fairly similar to the previous day. An upper trough will move over
the Central Plains Friday night and will provide increased chances
(up to around 60%) of showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures
Friday night are expected to be in the mid 30s to upper 40s. The
showers and storms will end by Saturday afternoon with high
temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Low temperatures Saturday
night will mostly be in the 40s. Winds across south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas will increase out of the
south to southeast with an upper trough dominating the western part
of the country on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday will mostly be
in the 70s across the area. Gusty south to southeast winds will
continue into Sunday night with lows in the 50s. The upper trough to
the west will begin to move over the Central Plains on Monday with
increasing rain and storm chances (up to near 50%). Low temperatures
Monday night are expected to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Brief MVFR or low VFR ceilings are expected early this afternoon
then VFR conditions beginning around or before 20z. Winds will
be gusty out of the northwest this afternoon then weaken and become
more northerly this evening. Winds are expected to become
southeasterly by 09z and may become more easterly by 12z to 15z.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible for both terminals
beginning around 09z to 12z but confidence is low.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt